JRP3
Hyperactive Member
The Tesla should know when it's not on a highway, especially when you are in your home driveway.
I assume other systems such as Subaru's would prevent a living room insertion scenario.
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I assume other systems such as Subaru's would prevent a living room insertion scenario.
LargeHamCollider
Battery cells != scalable
@neroden
What he^^^ said, max charge rate is almost certainly governed by what the cells can take without cycle life degradation, I wouldn't be surprised if there were cases where thermals are the limiting factor, but these would be corner cases with relatively small impacts. Also, published C rates by themselves don't give you that much information unless they are combined with a duration and as noted above max charge rate does not equal max discharge rate.
For reference I'm working on a pack right now that has over 1000 individual cells in it, the cells can discharge at 110C... for about 1 second, 50C for about 10 seconds and 20C continuously if the starting temperature is reasonably low or they are actively cooled. These cells aren't supposed to be charged at more than 4C per the manufacturer but you could probably charge them faster for brief periods, at specific limited SOC values or at specific temperatures.
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racer26
Active Member
You realize that a Tesla would do almost exactly the same thing, right? - AEB will stop the car if you try to run through a solid object under around 40mph - perfect for stopping you from rear-ending the car ahead in stop and go traffic.
The problem is what happens when you start < 20 ft from the obstacle, and floor the accelerator? The AEB systems are all based on a rate of closing the gap to the obstacle. If you start close enough, it won't be able to capture the rate of closing until after you've hit it.
dennis
Model S Plaid
Growing revenues >50% YoY when you are at a $10B annual run rate doesn't come easy.
StapleGun
Member
It doesn't need to detect the closing speed though. If ultrasonics detect a large object in the path of the car then it could limit the available acceleration based on the current distance to the point that it could detect the collision in time.
The false-positive merging problem discussed earlier is pretty easy too, lower the aggressiveness or don't activate this feature when you're on a known road or turning the wheel away from the object in the path. Increase the aggressiveness when you're in a known parking lot or the car was in park and has not moved yet.
erthquake
Active Member
Wouldn't it be lovely if they waited until after the bell, believing the shorts would load up, and then report mic drop delivery numbers? Might it make for quite the squeeze in the morning?
That's strange. Not really sure what to make of it. Please let us know if you see anything like that again. Thanks for mentioning it.
I thought the idea was that they would release them early today if they were low, so that people could get everything out of their system and things would be OK tomorrow. But since they are good they will wait until around open time tomorrow.
Of course it could just be a matter of them needing time to finalize all of the paperwork in their system and verify actual deliveries before that can tabulate the numbers. (And there was holiday time in there that isn't there for a normal quarter end.)
Finally got around to guessing Q4 deliveries. I'll say 26,750.
Reasoning: Something like 31k VINs issued, wow. I don't think deliveries will outpace VINs this year, though because (i) Q3 had an unusual push for inventory deliveries which is typically reserved for Q4, (ii) no significant Q4 deals to push further inventory sales, (iii) chatter about some RHD deliveries being delayed to January (no idea how significant) and (iv) Euro numbers not coming in huge.
Reasoning: Something like 31k VINs issued, wow. I don't think deliveries will outpace VINs this year, though because (i) Q3 had an unusual push for inventory deliveries which is typically reserved for Q4, (ii) no significant Q4 deals to push further inventory sales, (iii) chatter about some RHD deliveries being delayed to January (no idea how significant) and (iv) Euro numbers not coming in huge.
MOD NOTE:
As you all know, markets will be open in the morning. All discussion other than that dealing absolutely specifically with the market-and-price-as-it-is-happening gets posted here; pure market items in the other thread.
I'm mostly not available for the next two days - as all will see.
As you all know, markets will be open in the morning. All discussion other than that dealing absolutely specifically with the market-and-price-as-it-is-happening gets posted here; pure market items in the other thread.
I'm mostly not available for the next two days - as all will see.
racer26
Active Member
I've seen stuff like that happen when the OP of the post I'm replying to edited it between when I loaded the page and when I clicked reply. Bit disconcerting.
Except it's very common. 16000 accidental accelerations resulting in accidents per year. 15,990 of them from reg gas vehicles
racer26
Active Member
16000 is a fairly small number compared to the total number of vehicles on the road, and even to the total number of accidents.
Yes, it's not an uncommon accident type, but the actual mistake that leads to that accident is much more common than the accident tally would suggest, because the majority of vehicles the mistake is made in are fairly forgiving and you have at least several hundred milliseconds to correct your error before disaster strikes.
Teslas have a higher correlation between number of pedal errors and accidents as a result than gas cars do, because of their being less forgiving.
My gut feeling, though I have no evidence to back it up with, is that gas supercars that do 0-60 in under 4s also have a high correlation, but their relative rarity means the accidents are still rare enough nobody notices.
Define "sales". These cars were likely ordered ~3 months ago, then two weeks later the deposit became non-refundable. Then they were registered on January 2nd, Tesla should receive payment around January 3rd, and delivery should take place around January 4th. Give or take a day or two here and there. (The best case scenario is that those three last points happen on the same day.)
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EarlyAdopter
Active Member
We placed an order for our Model X (finally!) on 12/24, confirmed on 12/31. I just saw now on our My Tesla order page that our estimated delivery range is "March - Early April."
It would seem that Q1 production is already sold out.
It would seem that Q1 production is already sold out.
Historically can someone weigh in on how abnormal that is? Seems impressive but I have no context to compare that to. I recall anecdotally that orders were two weeks out on California orders. Where are you based?
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EarlyAdopter
Active Member
Highly unusual. Typically 1-2 months out, max, for west coast US.
I'm in the Seattle, WA area. This will be my third time ordering a Tesla. The first two, from order confirmed to delivery, were about 6 weeks each, and both of those were exceptional circumstances (first P85D, early Model S during "S curve" ramp).
Exciting. But early April is 3 months out so only 50% more than 2 months. 100% more than the 6 weeks you mentioned so while awesome not earth shattering.
If orders were backed up to June when the model 3 starts that would be another thing. Something tells me after Jan 4 meeting where I expect to hear about Tesla network many Model Ss will be ordered when people start to realize potential of TN and that they won't be getting a model 3 anytime soon if they didn't order one.
Premarket looking good. Up 0.21%. Although nasdaq futures are up 0.65% so likely just a macro thing rather than anticipation of delivery numbers. Wish they would publish already.
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Mario Kadastik
Active Member
Why do you estimate the Gigafactory event has anything to do with Tesla Network? I would assume the GF event is 100% about Tesla Energy and the ramp of cell production. It may give some information on the PP and PW products so far and some guidance, but I wouldn't even be expecting that too much.
As I understand there is planned to be statements about technology goals from JB at the event. While I expect info about the factory my impression is we have a fairly good understanding of goals with self driving and other technology goals, whereas TN technology goals all we really know is that it's a owner based self driving uber. My feeling is that with AP 2.0 reading signs most of what's left for AP is regulatory approval. And some states like Florida Michigan and calofornia seem poised to let the technology for autonomy creep in. No reason the TN cant start earlier in the year. Pre model 3 even. Musk has always said everything will come to MS and X first.
Could all be wishful thinking. I don't believe in my mind that the event is all about TN by any means. But I have a gut feeling it will be covered. Frankly I think it's as big a part of the future of Tesla as anything. Some estimates put it at 50% of their business prior to scty merger.
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