2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[sdtslafan]

Curious. Were there a number of 'to be delivered Ss and Xs there?

The San Diego service center has many dozens of Tesla cars all around it, at least 50. Some of these are shrinkwrapped and clearly new. Others have the old front and are clearly in for service. Still other cars appear new but are dirty so hard to tell if they are to be delivered or have been delivered and have come back for minor punchlist items / problems.

I was hoping to see lots of people in the waiting room waiting to get their new Tesla. But I didn't see anyone around 1PM ish.

Maybe things are so well under control that there is no need for a final push. Most likely I just was there at the wrong time.

Well know soon enough!

 

[neroden]

Not sure what this means, the charging voltage? The pack voltage?

Meaningfully increasing charging voltage would degrade cycle life. You could rearrange the cells in the pack so that pack voltage was higher but this would not increase an individual cell's max charge rate.

That's what I meant. After all, nobody cares about the cell's charge rate, right? We only care about the pack's charge rate. That's what we experience at the Supercharger.

 

[LargeHamCollider]

That's what I meant. After all, nobody cares about the cell's charge rate, right? We only care about the pack's charge rate. That's what we experience at the Supercharger.

But the pack's charge rate is exactly equal to the average charge rate of each cell in the pack at any given time...

 

[austinEV]

I don't think existing packs could take the over 350kW V 3 SC which Elon refers to. Maybe the new 100 packs with the improved cooling architecture, but probably not for very long since that's going to be more than 3.5C charging rate.

I keep expecting them to add a coolant loop connection. A charge cable in one side and coolant in the other side of the car (finally use that other small spot for a door). Pump chilled coolant through a second cooling loop, maybe just in the radiator of the existing coolant loop. Aint no one doing 6C in the desert summer.

This happened to me once many years ago, after a long flight I was driving home and pulling into the driveway and my jet lagged brain momentarily mixed up which pedal my foot was on and i accelerated into the side of garage. Thankfully, at the time i was driving a camry and with the lag in acceleration I was able to slam on break and only slightly bump the wall of the garage. No real damage, had i been driving a S/X with that instant torque, would have been ugly.

I have nightmares about this. I was learning to drive as a teenager in my old VW Bug and "misapplied" the clutch in a parking lot. I was in high gear and it killed the engine. A mother and child were walking in front of me... (I was depressing the clutch. I dropped the clutch in 3rd gear and the engine stopped since I wasn't also gunning the gas.)

I recently read a survey that 60% of people in the US still didn't know that electric cars *existed*. Every Tesla on the road has the ability to spread that word of mouth and increase demand. So this is a possiblity...

WOW. Source on that stat?

 

[GoTslaGo]

WOW. Source on that stat?

"60% of Americans unaware electric cars exist" over at GAS2
60% Of Americans Unaware Electric Cars Exist - Gas 2

Wow, I can't really believe that. I guess the general population is just dumber than I thought.

I better go out and give some more free rides.

Let's see if this quoting of quotes works this time...

 

[tslagreen]

The San Diego service center has many dozens of Tesla cars all around it, at least 50. Some of these are shrinkwrapped and clearly new. Others have the old front and are clearly in for service. Still other cars appear new but are dirty so hard to tell if they are to be delivered or have been delivered and have come back for minor punchlist items / problems.

I was hoping to see lots of people in the waiting room waiting to get their new Tesla. But I didn't see anyone around 1PM ish.

Maybe things are so well under control that there is no need for a final push. Most likely I just was there at the wrong time.

Well know soon enough!

I'm just as hopeful as others that Tesla will have knock-out numbers for the Q4 deliveries, but to think that every 3 months Elon Musk and crew are going to go nuts and slash prices and try to prime the pump to bolster delivery numbers is wishful thinking. I am confident in the product and the management to think that the numbers will be there without having to scrutinize the local dealership or recent tweeting habits of EM. I admit that I get ginned up every 3 months for the numbers and quarterly reports, but try to maintain a longer perspective. Also, the recent article about 60% of people not knowing about EV is sadly not surprising, but is, IMO, great news for future Tesla sales once the word gets out!

 

[ajax]

I keep expecting them to add a coolant loop connection. A charge cable in one side and coolant in the other side of the car (finally use that other small spot for a door). Pump chilled coolant through a second cooling loop, maybe just in the radiator of the existing coolant loop. Aint no one doing 6C in the desert summer.

Or, maybe something like this

 

[MP3Mike]

Or, maybe something like this

Wow, a different method for automated charge hook-ups. I wonder if any of the cars/batteries produced now have the necessary ports...

Somebody need to go tear a 100kWh pack apart...

 

[mmd]

Bank closures for the holiday might have caused difficulties for some people who didn't think ahead and didn't have the money in the right account.

US banks weren't closed on Dec 31st. Normal Saturday hours. There was only 1 day closure in December for Christmas. What bank closures are you referring to?
2016 US Bank Holidays

 

[neroden]

But the pack's charge rate is exactly equal to the average charge rate of each cell in the pack at any given time...

*Cough* Sure, in terms of *kw* but we have been futzing about with other specifications.

Let's be very simple about this. I just looked up what "C-rate" means, and a "1C" rate means the battery can charge in an hour. This means a 15-minute full charge needs a "4C rate" and a 20-minute full charge needs a "3C" rate. But this is a highly derivative number. We already know they can exceed this in discharge for brief periods, since a P90D does 4.7C at top acceleration. It doesn't seem that there are any fundemental technical problems with getting to this C-rate.

The charge rate limitation is almost certainly in the wiring or heat dissipation, not the cells.

 

[neroden]

US banks weren't closed on Dec 31st. Normal Saturday hours. There was only 1 day closure in December for Christmas. What bank closures are you referring to?
2016 US Bank Holidays

First of all, bank closure days aren't standardized in the US. Second, other countries. Third, brokerages. Face it, hours are just a mess around the end of the year. Even if this only affected a few people, those people would be really mad.

 

[MP3Mike]

We already know they can exceed this in discharge for brief periods, since a P90D does 4.7C at top acceleration. It doesn't seem that there are any fundemental technical problems with getting to this C-rate.

Maybe they could do burst charging, just like the burst discharging. Charge at 4.7C for 30 seconds, which is probably longer than you get the 4.7C discharge under top acceleration, and then ramp charging down while things recover/cool, and then burst again. But would that really get you charged faster without doing damage to the cells?

 

[Wenche]

No rush to deliver all cars in 2016, for Norway? 7 Model S and 23 Model X registered today, total 30, on the first day in 2017. Looks like they reached target of deliveries in 2016.

 

[EnzoXYZ]

I'm just as hopeful as others that Tesla will have knock-out numbers for the Q4 deliveries, but to think that every 3 months Elon Musk and crew are going to go nuts and slash prices and try to prime the pump to bolster delivery numbers is wishful thinking. I am confident in the product and the management to think that the numbers will be there without having to scrutinize the local dealership or recent tweeting habits of EM. I admit that I get ginned up every 3 months for the numbers and quarterly reports, but try to maintain a longer perspective. Also, the recent article about 60% of people not knowing about EV is sadly not surprising, but is, IMO, great news for future Tesla sales once the word gets out!

Same here. I just have a hard time even believing cars are allocated to certain regions to make delivery numbers. If this true wouldn't the following quarter wash this strategy out? You are forever playing numbers and wasting valuable time on making numbers. Would be far easier just to deliver by the boat load as it fills up. If I'm understanding this correctly no cars will be deliver to CA in the first two months of a new quarter?

 

[mmd]

View attachment 208878 View attachment 208877 No rush to deliver all cars in 2016, for Norway? 7 Model S and 23 Model X registered today, total 30, on the first day in 2017. Looks like they reached target of deliveries in 2016.

The volume seems unusually high. Could these sales have happened on December 31st, but are registered 2 days later?
.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

The San Diego service center has many dozens of Tesla cars all around it, at least 50. Some of these are shrinkwrapped and clearly new. Others have the old front and are clearly in for service. Still other cars appear new but are dirty so hard to tell if they are to be delivered or have been delivered and have come back for minor punchlist items / problems.

I was hoping to see lots of people in the waiting room waiting to get their new Tesla. But I didn't see anyone around 1PM ish.

Maybe things are so well under control that there is no need for a final push. Most likely I just was there at the wrong time.

Well know soon enough!

Couple of previous exciting quarters (Q415, Q316) have depended heavily on US doing all the heavy lifting, and discounts were not adopted outside of US until much later in the quarter; also there was a push for local delivery close to factory.

These factors were not at play Q416. There were many more inventory cars to satisfy demand, including California, and ordering was a lot more orderly and orchestrated towards what felt like overall efficiency. I was fretting not seeing much of inventory movement in Canada, but lack of anything that would look like a panic action on Tesla part and well depleted inventory as shown at ev-cpo, make me hopeful Q4 was in the bag all along.

And finally, anecdotally, this was a quarter when I really tried to buy Tesla MS because it was attractive, not because I wanted to do 'my part'; eventhough because of TSLA loses, Tesla is not very affordable to me right now

But yeah, they could have really screwed it up too... My rule of thumb: if results come tomorrow before market, they will be great, if after market, that will be bad, as they're trying to subdue them with GF event. They could try to stack all good news with GF event, but in my opinion, we'll see selloff tomorrow if results are not published in the morning

 

[3Victoria]

... I just have a hard time even believing cars are allocated to certain regions to make delivery numbers. ...

This is an artifact of the focus of the market on quarterly targets. Random shipping to distant markets would add fluctuations in the quarterly reports and Tesla would be beseiged with FUD regarding missed targets, lack of demand, etc. Unfortunately, just part of the game's rules and expectations.

 

[MP3Mike]

If this true wouldn't the following quarter wash this strategy out? You are forever playing numbers and wasting valuable time on making numbers.

But that is what Wall Street wants, so Tesla keeps doing it. But it certainly makes sense to batch cars by region to get quantity discounts on transport which fits in the quarterly schedule that Wall Street likes to see, so it makes sense to me.

And yes, there are very few CA custom order deliveries in the first couple months of each quarter. (There are probably plenty of inventory deliveries, some of which are people that switch from a custom order car to get it earlier, and then their original car may become an inventory car for someone else.)

 

[3Victoria]

... There are probably plenty of inventory deliveries, some of which are people that switch from a custom order car to get it earlier, and then their original car may become an inventory car for someone else. ...

This is a good point. The inventory cars act as a good buffer and smooth the vagaries of production/delivery, as well as serving as demos and display cars.

 

[JRP3]

*Cough* Sure, in terms of *kw* but we have been futzing about with other specifications.

Let's be very simple about this. I just looked up what "C-rate" means, and a "1C" rate means the battery can charge in an hour. This means a 15-minute full charge needs a "4C rate" and a 20-minute full charge needs a "3C" rate. But this is a highly derivative number. We already know they can exceed this in discharge for brief periods, since a P90D does 4.7C at top acceleration. It doesn't seem that there are any fundemental technical problems with getting to this C-rate.

The charge rate limitation is almost certainly in the wiring or heat dissipation, not the cells.

Unlikely. Discharge and charge rates are almost never symmetrical, and charging C rates are almost always much more limited than discharge rates. Also short term discharge C rates for acceleration are not sustainable over the lengths of time that would be seen during charging, so that comparison isn't valid even if charging C rates were equal. I'm quite sure the pack charge rates for existing Tesla vehicles are ultimately limited by the charging C rate at the cell level.