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2015 Perfect Storm - Tesla Model S best selling EV in the U.S. ?
- Thread starter RubberToe
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- Electric Vehicles
Not necessarily. Tesla is not unique among carmakers in that they do make mad rushes for deliveries just prior to quarter end and year end. They'll certainly be doing that this year, especially trying very, very hard to deliver as many Model X as they can crank out as well as higher configuration Model S. My opaque crystal ball suggests it is just barely possible that they'll make their numbers, but that all depends of their supply lines and manufacturing teams. Above all it depends on no further delays on Model X. There is precisely zero chance of the rest of the world catching up to the US because the US market is so robust for them right now. We will see...
Krugerrand
Meow
Tesla recently stated that they will no longer be doing end of quarter/year rushes. As the numbers have started coming in for this quarter, it seems the statement was true.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Tesla is regularly expanding capacity.
It is almost always true that capacity in Q4 is significantly greater than capacity in Q1 of the same year.
Towards the end of Q3 they expect to double capacity by opening second line. Going from ~1k units per week to ~2k per week capacity almost overnight.
We could see ~25k deliveries in Q4. Obviously the last three days production will not be delivered. That is what the Tesla management team talked about; not rushing the quarter end production to customers delivering cars until midnight to customers at Tesla stores/service centers the last 3 days of the quarter.
It is almost always true that capacity in Q4 is significantly greater than capacity in Q1 of the same year.
Towards the end of Q3 they expect to double capacity by opening second line. Going from ~1k units per week to ~2k per week capacity almost overnight.
We could see ~25k deliveries in Q4. Obviously the last three days production will not be delivered. That is what the Tesla management team talked about; not rushing the quarter end production to customers delivering cars until midnight to customers at Tesla stores/service centers the last 3 days of the quarter.
Well here is the May update. Tesla has a 1,058 car lead on Nissan, and 4,403 over the Volt. As previously discussed, the Volt isn't going to make this difference up since the 2016 model doesn't start shipping even to California buyers until September. The Leaf should see some sales declines as buyers wait for the anticipated 30Kw version presumably coming out later this year. Tesla is continuing the ramp of Model S while getting ready to start Model X production.
There is no doubt now, the Tesla Model S will be the best selling EV in America this year. The only remaining question will then be, will any other car surpass it any time before the Model 3 does?
There is no doubt now, the Tesla Model S will be the best selling EV in America this year. The only remaining question will then be, will any other car surpass it any time before the Model 3 does?
Drucifer
Active Member
I imagine that generation 2 of the Volt will hit decent numbers for the 2016 model year. Possible more than either S or X, but not more than both.
Depends a lot on what CA does with the green stickers, which had run out, last I knew. Give 'em all stickers and they might sell enough to be able to tell CARB "Look at he EV miles!" and get them to change BEVx to allow GM's 50-mile EREV vision.
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
someone on the Leaf forum complaining that the federal tax credit will expire before Model 3 ships. In the process of replying to him I did a lot of math and I figured it'd be good to leave the running total math in this thread.
US running total Tesla Sales vs 200,000 for federal credit phase out trigger
2011 end 1,900
2012 end 4,550 (2,650 for 2012 + prior year)
2013 end 22,200 (14,650 for 2013 + prior years)
2014 end 39,500 (17,300 for 2014 + prior years)
2015 May 48,300 (8,800 for 2015 + prior years
The current rate has them selling more than 20,000 in the US for 2015. Ramping up Model X and production in general might trigger the 200,000 mark in 2018? I figure it'll be a Model 3 that is the 200,000th sold in the US (or at least Model 3 sales will be under the 200,000 mark and contribute to the total).
The phase-out period stretches over one year, beginning in the second calendar quarter after the quarter in which the manufacturer hits the 200,000 vehicle US sales mark. From there, all qualifying vehicles sold by the manufacturer are eligible for 50% of their specified credit for the first two quarters and 25% of the credit for the next two quarters. For example if a manufacturer sells its 200,000th vehicle in the first quarter (Q1) of 2018, the credit amounts for all of that manufacturer's eligible vehicles would phase out as shown in the table below.
Tax Credit Phase-Out Schedule Quarter Credit
Q1 2018 Full amount
Q2 2018 Full amount
Q3 2018 50% of full amount
Q4 2018 50% of full amount
Q1 2019 25% of full amount
Q2 2019 25% of full amount
Q3 2019 No credit
It's really way too far out to worry about but people seem to get worked up about it and this is the thread were we watch the monthly numbers so I figured I'd leave my math here.
US running total Tesla Sales vs 200,000 for federal credit phase out trigger
2011 end 1,900
2012 end 4,550 (2,650 for 2012 + prior year)
2013 end 22,200 (14,650 for 2013 + prior years)
2014 end 39,500 (17,300 for 2014 + prior years)
2015 May 48,300 (8,800 for 2015 + prior years
The current rate has them selling more than 20,000 in the US for 2015. Ramping up Model X and production in general might trigger the 200,000 mark in 2018? I figure it'll be a Model 3 that is the 200,000th sold in the US (or at least Model 3 sales will be under the 200,000 mark and contribute to the total).
The phase-out period stretches over one year, beginning in the second calendar quarter after the quarter in which the manufacturer hits the 200,000 vehicle US sales mark. From there, all qualifying vehicles sold by the manufacturer are eligible for 50% of their specified credit for the first two quarters and 25% of the credit for the next two quarters. For example if a manufacturer sells its 200,000th vehicle in the first quarter (Q1) of 2018, the credit amounts for all of that manufacturer's eligible vehicles would phase out as shown in the table below.
Tax Credit Phase-Out Schedule Quarter Credit
Q1 2018 Full amount
Q2 2018 Full amount
Q3 2018 50% of full amount
Q4 2018 50% of full amount
Q1 2019 25% of full amount
Q2 2019 25% of full amount
Q3 2019 No credit
It's really way too far out to worry about but people seem to get worked up about it and this is the thread were we watch the monthly numbers so I figured I'd leave my math here.
Based on that chart, only Model S and Leaf sales are showing an upward trend. i3 sales have slumped. e-Golf and B-Class sales are not improving and in fact their sales numbers are pitifully low.
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