dhanson865
Well-Known Member
Nice thread, any chance we can get the PHEVs (Hybrids) shaded or colored differently from the BEVs (Pure Electric)? Or Maybe another column with values of Hybrid vs EV?
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2015 Perfect Storm - Tesla Model S best selling EV in the U.S. ?
- Thread starter RubberToe
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- Electric Vehicles
That doesn't sound too good for TSLA stock and its investors. Tesla is not a charity.
It has nothing to do with altruism.
The main thing holding back Tesla sales right now is that most people still don't have confidence in electric cars. If more people were willing to consider an EV, the sales of the Leaf and the i3 would go up, because I think they are good cars. But we all believe that Tesla makes superior cars, so Tesla sales should also benefit.
However - because of price alone - the Nissan Leaf competes in a market of several million vehicle sales per year, and the Model S competes in a market of a couple hundred thousand vehicles per year. If the consumers weren't afraid of EVs, the Leaf would be selling much better than it is. The fact that the Leaf has captured such a tiny slice of its potential market is a signal to many that consumers still reject electric cars. I don't believe that Tesla loses more than a handful of sales to Nissan every year, you don't buy a $25K car after cross shopping an $80K car.
When Tesla competes with Nissan head to head in the same market segment, then any Nissan sale is likely a lost Tesla sale and I will reverse my position. That won't happen for years.
ChadS
Last tank of gas: March 2009
What Rich said. Plus, an awful lot of EV buyers love their purchase and then look for a second one. LEAF buyers typically want a lot more range out of a second EV.
A rising tide lifts all boats. That is to say, a small share of a fast-growing market is better than a large share of a tiny, stagnant market. More automakers selling more EVs is good for Tesla as it helps them pull share from the ICE market.
Of course there will come a point when the market isn't growing and then Tesla has to compete for share against BEVs rather than ICEs. Then, it might be bad news for other manufacturers to be bringing more cars.
A rising tide lifts all boats. That is to say, a small share of a fast-growing market is better than a large share of a tiny, stagnant market. More automakers selling more EVs is good for Tesla as it helps them pull share from the ICE market.
Of course there will come a point when the market isn't growing and then Tesla has to compete for share against BEVs rather than ICEs. Then, it might be bad news for other manufacturers to be bringing more cars.
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My data source for the spreadsheet data, insideevs.com, is reporting North American Model S sales of 2,450 units in March. And 5,000 for the month world wide. I'll post the spreadsheet when they update it later today, but here is their analysis of the month:
For March, Tesla experienced the “perfect storm” of deliveries all around the globe. In North America the 85D deliveries hit full stride, the P85D flow also continued; and remember those cars that Tesla started building for Europe just after Christmas and in January of 2015? Well they materialized into some of the best result in Europe since…well, a long time. Even China seemed to surge with reportedly well north of 600 units ringing the bell.
For the month, production seemed almost flawless as one Model S P85D owner reported to us getting a car delivered just 18 days after placing an order in March.
For North America, we estimate Tesla delivered about 2,450 Model S sedans – mostly 85Ds. In Europe, we would be shocked to not see Norway alone easily eclipse 1,000 units sold (there is a mad rush to get as many EVs as possible delivered before the possible curtailing of tax incentives past the cumulative 50,000 EVs sold mark).
Cumulatively, Tesla looks to have easily delivered more than 5,000 cars worldwide in March – which would be one of their best (if not the best) result to date.
The only disappointment we could suggest for the month is that it seems Tesla in a rush to hit Q1 numbers (what new?), and after a slow first two months (what new?), delayed much of the Euro production of the 85D that was looking iffy for the Q1 delivery deadline into Q2, and managed delivery expectations of customers to June.
For March, Tesla experienced the “perfect storm” of deliveries all around the globe. In North America the 85D deliveries hit full stride, the P85D flow also continued; and remember those cars that Tesla started building for Europe just after Christmas and in January of 2015? Well they materialized into some of the best result in Europe since…well, a long time. Even China seemed to surge with reportedly well north of 600 units ringing the bell.
For the month, production seemed almost flawless as one Model S P85D owner reported to us getting a car delivered just 18 days after placing an order in March.
For North America, we estimate Tesla delivered about 2,450 Model S sedans – mostly 85Ds. In Europe, we would be shocked to not see Norway alone easily eclipse 1,000 units sold (there is a mad rush to get as many EVs as possible delivered before the possible curtailing of tax incentives past the cumulative 50,000 EVs sold mark).
Cumulatively, Tesla looks to have easily delivered more than 5,000 cars worldwide in March – which would be one of their best (if not the best) result to date.
The only disappointment we could suggest for the month is that it seems Tesla in a rush to hit Q1 numbers (what new?), and after a slow first two months (what new?), delayed much of the Euro production of the 85D that was looking iffy for the Q1 delivery deadline into Q2, and managed delivery expectations of customers to June.
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
yeah, they still have Tesla in the 2nd row on the table. I wonder if they'll wait for the April update to move them up or if he'll move them to #1 later today.
The order is close enough. If it were my table I wouldn't change the sort order until the end of the year.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
This is a very nice trend!
Not to highjack your thread but I thought I'd just mention that Norway is slightly ahead of the US... In March 2015 the percentage of new cars sold that were plugins was 23% of which only 2,5% points were hybrids (the rest pure BEVs with e-Golf outselling Model S).
1 av 4 biler i mars var en elbil - Norsk elbilforening
Not to highjack your thread but I thought I'd just mention that Norway is slightly ahead of the US... In March 2015 the percentage of new cars sold that were plugins was 23% of which only 2,5% points were hybrids (the rest pure BEVs with e-Golf outselling Model S).
1 av 4 biler i mars var en elbil - Norsk elbilforening
I think it would be very useful to break that data down some more.
I would like to see the EV ( car )percentage against car sales only, not trucks and not SUVs. There are no EV trucks, and not really any EV SUVs yet.
If the sales mix of trucks vs cars changes significantly it will affect the EV percentage of total sales, but not indicate anything meaningful about EV market share in their segment.
From this data: Auto Sales - Markets Data Center - WSJ.com we can see that car sales are flat, but truck and SUV sales are way up.
Tesla does not release monthly sales numbers, so the values shown in that chart are estimates/guesses.
Inside EVs usually isn't that far off.
Besides, the Leaf will plummet in sales once Georgia stops offering the tax credit. Georgia isn't a tremendously huge market for Tesla, but it's one of the biggest if not the single largest Leaf market right now. I think the Leaf is also suffering from low brand loyalty due to its Amazing Vanishing Battery Capacity act, especially in hot markets like Georgia and SoCal.
If you want a good laugh, just read some of the "Why did you buy a Leaf?" threads on Leaf forums. Every other response is "Because I couldn't afford a Tesla", or "Nobody else offers EVs in X state". The Leaf is high because it's a first and Nissan committed to keeping inventory levels up and available, but not because it's a superb EV even in its price range.
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
fwiw I'm about to buy a used Leaf around the $10,000 mark because
a. less cost than a similar age / mileage used Prius
b. less cost per mile to drive
c. I have a beater older than the Prius to get rid of.
I'm currently driving a 2005 Prius and ironically I'm looking forward to the extra torque and better 0-60 time I'll get upgrading to the Leaf.
as to I can't buy it in my state or can't afford, I can't buy...
Kia Soul EV in my state
Toyota Prius PHV in my state (and am no longer interested now that the Leaf is a better deal)
and of course I can't afford a Model S yet.
Did you fill your bingo card on this post? :biggrin:
fwiw I'm about to buy a used Leaf around the $10,000 mark because
a. less cost than a similar age / mileage used Prius
b. less cost per mile to drive
c. I have a beater older than the Prius to get rid of.
I'm currently driving a 2005 Prius and ironically I'm looking forward to the extra torque and better 0-60 time I'll get upgrading to the Leaf.
as to I can't buy it in my state or can't afford, I can't buy...
Kia Soul EV in my state
Toyota Prius PHV in my state (and am no longer interested now that the Leaf is a better deal)
and of course I can't afford a Model S yet.
Did you fill your bingo card on this post? :biggrin:
Haha! Well, in Leaf's defense, a cheap EV is still an awesome deal and fun to drive compared to a cheap ICE.
And I guess I can't complain because my own EV of choice has a wait time twice the wait of a Tesla, one year after its nationwide launch, with two cars in inventory in a 500 mile radius. At least my little smart will be unique in Ohio... because no one is insane enough to go through this wait except me...
Just a few points in defense of the Leaf. It is a very good car for what it was designed for: "Leading Environmentally-Friendly Affordable Family" (LEAF) car for around town, less than 50 mi per day, hauling kids, groceries, shopping, commuting, etc. There are actually many families who have several EVs (even 2 (gasp) Leafs, or a mix of Tesla, Volt and Leaf). It is definitely not a cross-country cruiser, but given enough working Chademo stations, it's not too bad for 200-300 mi days (I've only completed two 800 mi trips, but that's plenty of experience).
The great thing about the used market is that depreciation has been so distorted by advancing technology (the newest Leaf and Tesla are much better than the 1st introduction) and subsidies, that used Leaf prices are practically give away. Heck, you can pick up a used Leaf for $8-$10K (as compared to people here complaining about $20-$40K depreciation on a used Tesla). Leasing a new Leaf in GA (before expiration of tax credit) was nearly free (with gas savings like Tesla likes to mention). Free was the real driver for sales in GA. Yes, obviously, Leaf sales will slow down because of the expiration of the tax credit. Leaf sales will also slow down because of other EV choices that weren't available in 2010 (Ford Focus, Chevy Spark, Kia Soul, BMW i3, VW e-Golf, Fiat 500e, Smart EV, etc.) as well as the "rumored" introduction of the next gen Leaf/Volt/Bolt in (2015, 2016, 2017.... ).
However, now, let's move back on topic (expanding Tesla market share) to WA state where expiration of the EV sales tax exemption occurs on June 30th. I predict that new TESLA sales will plummet in the July-Sept quarter. Nope, it's not because Tesla is a "bad" product, but rather it will cost $10K more. Conversely, new Tesla sales in the April-June quarter should skyrocket in WA state. Seattle is a large market for EV's (Tesla as well as Leaf). Who will benefit more from the expiration of the sales tax exemption? All EVs will take a hit, and unfortunately, the only winners will be oil company executives from outside of the state. Meanwhile we will continue to export billions of petro dollars and cheap electricity out of state. Hmmmm, doesn't make much sense to me.
Insideevs has yet to post their numbers. But, MotorIntelligence is estimating 1,900 Model S's for May, which is the highest number they estimated since the 1,950 back in October 2013. Also, Wards Automotive is estimating 1,652 Model S's for May. I'll post again when the Insideevs chart gets updated...
RT
RT
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