I think it's possible that Tesla could have sold off some of their cars in the pipeline since they upgraded their cars w/autopilot. Autopilot was a big upgrade and it doesn't make sense to have a lot of cars in the pipeline that don't have autopilot. I have no idea how many, if any, they sold by the end of Q3. But if they sold off 1000+ or so, it could possibly result in a earnings a beat.
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
I think it's possible that Tesla could have sold off some of their cars in the pipeline since they upgraded their cars w/autopilot. Autopilot was a big upgrade and it doesn't make sense to have a lot of cars in the pipeline that don't have autopilot. I have no idea how many, if any, they sold by the end of Q3. But if they sold off 1000+ or so, it could possibly result in a earnings a beat.
I agree with you on this point. I see TM is motivated to sell "extra" cars from the pipe by end of Q3 due to autopilot upgrade, at the same time it can offset the production loss due to extended shut down time. Based on above analysis and together with Elon's tweets, I think it's really unlikely to see delivery number miss for Q3, but we might see some miss for production number. The delivery number matters financial results, so it's more important. The production miss can be easily caught up in Q4.
StapleGun
Member
There is definitely going to be a lull in demand before they start filling the P85D orders. The demand from now until then is the existing demand times whatever fraction Model S buyers don't want AWD. When you combine this with the recent dramatic ramp in production since the factory shutdown, it means the wait time from now until P85D deliveries start is going to be the lowest we've seen since the Model S has been available. Just the fact that they won't become demand constrained over this period is yet another demonstration of the demand being significantly higher than production right now.
I think TM is confident to deal with this issue.
First, demand is still well ahead of the production capacity. VIN # is a conservative metric to evaluate demand, today it's >64500 which means at least 64500 model S is built or in production queue. But if adds up 2012/2013/2014 (per guidance) delivery number, it's slightly >60000. That being said, after we deduct the loaner/demo/in-pipe cars, TM is going to built cars to meet 2014 guidance per sufficient demand. Remember we still have 8 weeks in Q4.
Second, per Tracking P85D delivery thread , it looks TM is pushing up the P85D delivery schedule. If you are US customers, even you order today, you'll most likely to get P85D delivered by end of December. The earliest P85D production is scheduled in last week of November and we should see TM is busy on delivering P85D to NA (mostly) and EU in entire December. I guess TM is intentionally pushing out the overseas delivery and leave December production capacity mainly for NA market as usual.
In summary, I think TM has very likely sold out the Q4 production per VIN # assignment but leave December production capacity mainly to NA market to drain the RWD and P85D demand. In worst case, if NA demand is not sufficient to digest December producation (~4000), TM can still send the rest of the cars to overseas delivery pipe.
First, demand is still well ahead of the production capacity. VIN # is a conservative metric to evaluate demand, today it's >64500 which means at least 64500 model S is built or in production queue. But if adds up 2012/2013/2014 (per guidance) delivery number, it's slightly >60000. That being said, after we deduct the loaner/demo/in-pipe cars, TM is going to built cars to meet 2014 guidance per sufficient demand. Remember we still have 8 weeks in Q4.
Second, per Tracking P85D delivery thread , it looks TM is pushing up the P85D delivery schedule. If you are US customers, even you order today, you'll most likely to get P85D delivered by end of December. The earliest P85D production is scheduled in last week of November and we should see TM is busy on delivering P85D to NA (mostly) and EU in entire December. I guess TM is intentionally pushing out the overseas delivery and leave December production capacity mainly for NA market as usual.
In summary, I think TM has very likely sold out the Q4 production per VIN # assignment but leave December production capacity mainly to NA market to drain the RWD and P85D demand. In worst case, if NA demand is not sufficient to digest December producation (~4000), TM can still send the rest of the cars to overseas delivery pipe.
MSMX2014
$ Contributing Member $
I own a mint 2014 P85+ with 5k miles. I attended the 'D' event and the next week emailed Tesla to see about trading in my P85+ for the P85D. A Tesla representative called me the next day and said he would get right back to me with a price on my trade-in. That was a few weeks ago. I'm not sure what to make of it. IMO demand for the P85D must be outrageous. Anyone else attempted to trade in their existing MS for the new P85D?
Another piece of anecdotal evidence - remember, Tesla cut back on mid-late September test drive events, almost certainly to keep those few dozen folks in the showrooms and service centers delivering cars instead of running to the hinterlands to do test drives. If each person delivers 4 cars/day (guess), you could do the math on #days and #people and get to an ability to increase deliveries in the 2nd half of September by over 1K.
Muskol
Member
Hasn't been talked about much from what I've read on here, but can the B-Class Electric Drive revenues be of any significance for this quarter, or is it a drop in the bucket to the bottom line?
I think the B-Class isn't going to move the needle, maybe single digit millions. More interesting is most of the analysts and folks haven't accounted for the likely "surprise GAAP profit" headline off ZEV credits. I think it was possibly something like $0.20-$0.30 in EPS tacked on from it this quarter, from the numbers I looked into off the thread about it. ZEV credits - Page 6
Likely we're talking less than 300 units sold so far this year (255 U.S., 27 in Germany, haven't found others). Of course, Tesla sells the drivetrains first and then Mercedes sells the car later, but guessing less than $4 million in revenue. I'm thinking that is hardly going to move the needle and is already factored in. Matter of fact, those drivetrain sales may have already been accounted for in earlier quarters.
One trivial data point is the amount of 'chatter' on this forum. It could be measured by number of posts in the preceding days/weeks as well as by number of participants posting about quarter ending numbers/projections.
I haven't had time to do the above measurements but my guess from closely reading/observing these forums for the past 2+ years is that the 'chatter' on here is 25-50% less than the past several quarters earnings reports.
if we are mostly bulls and a representative sample of all TSLA bulls then I take this as a good sign as it means expectations are low and excitement going into the ER is lower than it has been in a long time.
(meaning that our TSLA investor expectations can daily be beaten)
I haven't had time to do the above measurements but my guess from closely reading/observing these forums for the past 2+ years is that the 'chatter' on here is 25-50% less than the past several quarters earnings reports.
if we are mostly bulls and a representative sample of all TSLA bulls then I take this as a good sign as it means expectations are low and excitement going into the ER is lower than it has been in a long time.
(meaning that our TSLA investor expectations can daily be beaten)
I agree. It's quite interesting that there is little to no pumping or over-enthusiasm for Q3 earnings here on TMC.
InTheShadows
Active Member
I'm pumping it. I bought some dec2 $290 calls today. We're going to 270 tonight, 300 tomorrow and 320 Friday because of the squeeze
. That's my hope, I highly doubt that will happen though. As a disclaimer I also have some November $200 puts that I bought when we went back up to 234 today. I'm hoping they are a waste. They are my insurance.
I'm pumping it. I bought some dec2 $290 calls today. We're going to 270 tonight, 300 tomorrow and 320 Friday because of the squeeze
That's my hope, I highly doubt that will happen though. As a disclaimer I also have some November $200 puts that I bought when we went back up to 234 today. I'm hoping they are a waste. They are my insurance.
Well, look at the Bear walking in. Only 270?
Zzzz...
Member
Zzzz...
Member
Well as predicted Tesla will miss delivery guidance for Q4 and '14. In fact Tesla missed Q3 guidance, but not substantially. After hours TSLA price seems to react positively so far. It do looks like expectations of such miss were priced in already by smart money.
chickensevil
Active Member
Peaked out at 248...I'm pumping it. I bought some dec2 $290 calls today. We're going to 270 tonight, 300 tomorrow and 320 Friday because of the squeeze
That's my hope, I highly doubt that will happen though. As a disclaimer I also have some November $200 puts that I bought when we went back up to 234 today. I'm hoping they are a waste. They are my insurance.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Let's see how this joker did:
Arguments for a Good Q3 ER reaction:
No
Exactly, yes.
ASP lower, but due to exchange rates.
Yes, Positive statements about demand.
X slightly delayed
I think we are seeing a relief rally.
Arguments for a Bad Q3 ER reaction:
Got lucky maybe. But then again, FB and TWTR don't have a 10 year plan for massive industry dominance and high profits selling real things.
I was wrong. They gave guidance (50% per year for many years)
Yep.
Wrong, Material news, about pushing it out.
Wrong, It's a little ahead of schedule!
I argue this is right. Ho-hum numbers.
I am leaning bullish for this ER reaction. I think expectations are low and the results will be better than expected. The general market has been on a bit of an upswing. This might be the quarter where the financial results are relatively less important compared to the notes about the D demand, X demand, X development, 3 development etc.
Since the stock price is low relative to its moving averages I am highly in with a fair proportion of Leaps for leverage. I expect I will hold this position.
I chickened out and sold my Jan '15 leaps, holding my March '15 and Jan '16 leaps. I replaced it with some weekly calls.
I give myself a B- for having he direction right, and essentially why (derisking/ relief rally)
Arguments for a Good Q3 ER reaction:
- They may beat eps/revenue estimates:
- They may have delivered more cars than people think. Just 100 cars or so is enough to move the eps needle.
No
- They may have sold some zev credits. They may even be doing this tactically just so that they can pad an otherwise off quarter, a reasonable thing to do.
Exactly, yes.
- Option uptake is probably higher than ever as deliveries shift to China (P85+ and "old" tech package buyers may be miffed for sure)
ASP lower, but due to exchange rates.
- They may make statements about the demand/orders/wait times for the "D" or just autopilot enabled cars. I expect ASP to go up, maybe as high as $110k, and a surge in orders. This will be excellent to silence the main Bear argument that "Demand is falling off. Markets are saturated".
Yes, Positive statements about demand.
- There could be concrete Model X news, but I doubt it. Still no reason to say anything other than its in final testing or other vague stuff.
X slightly delayed
- The news could be exactly inline with expectations, and there could be a relief rally. TSLA has been underperforming to the general market for the last few weeks. A "lid" has been on TSLA and this could be the worry lid coming off. The Q3 monkey will be off our back and the price can reflect the underlying strength of the company in the medium and long term.
I think we are seeing a relief rally.
Arguments for a Bad Q3 ER reaction:
- Everyone else seems to be going down. FB, TWTR have been punished. (Not comparable businesses, but held in some same portolios and "momo" stocks). Mr. Market may just see the in-line-with-expectations revenue, eps, deliveries and send the stock down since some people think good news is just always priced into TSLA, despite the downward movements already in Sept/oct.
Got lucky maybe. But then again, FB and TWTR don't have a 10 year plan for massive industry dominance and high profits selling real things.
- New guidance doesn't seem likely. TM has already given a lot of forward guidance, in that we know full year 2014 deliveries (and thus Q4) and they have basically said what 2015 will be too since they have quoted the run rate exiting 2015. There isn't much missing information here. There is of course the possibility of increasing already stated numbers but that seems risky to do so early. Even if EM thought they were low this doesn't seem like the right time to restate for 2015.
I was wrong. They gave guidance (50% per year for many years)
- Very unlikely any news about the "3".
Yep.
- Unlikely any material news about the "X". I expect this to be vague again.
Wrong, Material news, about pushing it out.
- Unlikely much good about the Gigafactory. They are pouring concrete and doing building which is fine, but there won't be much to say unless it is ahead of schedule.
Wrong, It's a little ahead of schedule!
- There is risk of it being behind schedule.
- Generally, it seems likely that this will be a "ho-hum" boring ER, which has historically been bad for TM. The alternating quarters theory says that this one is due to be bad, since the last one was good.
I argue this is right. Ho-hum numbers.
I am leaning bullish for this ER reaction. I think expectations are low and the results will be better than expected. The general market has been on a bit of an upswing. This might be the quarter where the financial results are relatively less important compared to the notes about the D demand, X demand, X development, 3 development etc.
Since the stock price is low relative to its moving averages I am highly in with a fair proportion of Leaps for leverage. I expect I will hold this position.
I chickened out and sold my Jan '15 leaps, holding my March '15 and Jan '16 leaps. I replaced it with some weekly calls.
I give myself a B- for having he direction right, and essentially why (derisking/ relief rally)
chickensevil
Active Member
Keep in mind that low numbers are in no way from any kind of low demand which I think is a big contribute to the rise. The expectation of at least 50k model s is huge and that number will certainly grow. I think this rise will happen on the nice restatement of high demand still being there and it not being satisfied.
Similar threads
