2014 Q3 Data Points & Estimates

[chickensevil]

To simplify the numbers:

EU: 1633
Asia: 2236
NA: 3931 (note that you are missing a number in one of your total columns since 1317+1294+1319 = 3930)
Total: 7800

In either case, the US is the big unknown. InsideEVs is currently saying 3600 in the US, assuming Tesla met their guidance (or beat it) it will come down to the US.

 

[eepic]

This morning's decline could be the market's perceived "threat" from competitors.

New 2016 Volt details. In my opinion it looks like very modest improvements and still not a very compelling amphibian.
2016 Chevy Volt: Bigger Battery, More Motor Power, New Range Extender Engine Details: EXPANDED

And some more about how Audi, BMW, Mercedes will compete with Tesla.
How Audi, BMW Mercedes Plan To Compete With Tesla--And Why

Update: The second article actually gave an anecdotal story praising Tesla, below.

"He told us the story on condition that we not source it to him, or identify the specific maker. But it illustrates why we may soon see a slew of all-electric sedans from German luxury makers that you might call Tesla-alikes.

Almost two years ago, early in 2013, one of the German prestige brands finally got its hands on a Tesla Model S and took the car to its test track and tear-down facility. The company's drivers hammered it around the track, recharged it, and drove it more.

Then the company's product board were asked to come to the test track and do the same. Altogether, the Tesla spent several days being driven at low and high speeds, and everything in between. We gather it performed flawlessly.

Emergency meeting
Then the executives responsible for future products convened a meeting.
They concluded that the Model S electric luxury sedan--a good-looking all-aluminum vehicle from a carmaker that didn't exist 10 years ago--provided a fast, comfortable, technologically advanced driving experience. An experience, moreover, that nothing in their current lineup--and nothing that this carmaker even had on the drawing board--could match.


And that was deeply, proundly unsettling to this particular maker, whose cars are world-renowned for their brand image. Fast forward perhaps six or seven years, and that deficiency may have been remedied. The question, of course, will be whether Tesla is a moving target--and whether these German electric sedans are targeting a car that's already about to be replaced."

 

[jhm]

This morning's decline could be the market's perceived "threat" from competitors.

New 2016 Volt details. In my opinion it looks like very modest improvements and still not a very compelling amphibian.
2016 Chevy Volt: Bigger Battery, More Motor Power, New Range Extender Engine Details: EXPANDED

And some more about how Audi, BMW, Mercedes will compete with Tesla.
How Audi, BMW Mercedes Plan To Compete With Tesla--And Why

Update: The second article actually gave an anecdotal story praising Tesla, below.

"He told us the story on condition that we not source it to him, or identify the specific maker. But it illustrates why we may soon see a slew of all-electric sedans from German luxury makers that you might call Tesla-alikes.

Almost two years ago, early in 2013, one of the German prestige brands finally got its hands on a Tesla Model S and took the car to its test track and tear-down facility. The company's drivers hammered it around the track, recharged it, and drove it more.

Then the company's product board were asked to come to the test track and do the same. Altogether, the Tesla spent several days being driven at low and high speeds, and everything in between. We gather it performed flawlessly.

Emergency meeting
Then the executives responsible for future products convened a meeting.
They concluded that the Model S electric luxury sedan--a good-looking all-aluminum vehicle from a carmaker that didn't exist 10 years ago--provided a fast, comfortable, technologically advanced driving experience. An experience, moreover, that nothing in their current lineup--and nothing that this carmaker even had on the drawing board--could match.


And that was deeply, proundly unsettling to this particular maker, whose cars are world-renowned for their brand image. Fast forward perhaps six or seven years, and that deficiency may have been remedied. The question, of course, will be whether Tesla is a moving target--and whether these German electric sedans are targeting a car that's already about to be replaced."

Excellent news! The Model S is definitely a moving target in many different meanings. P85D with Autopilot definitely represents years of insane advancement. The first competitors who bring Tesla-grade digital cars to the market will be co-conspirators in driving a stake into the heart of the oil sucking industry. This cannot happen fast enough.

 

[30seconds]

I think Q2 2013 deliveries were in the 5,000 range and all to the US. So assuming that they produced enough cars they should be able to hit Q3 estimate (if EU & China numbers correct) unless there was some sort of issue with increasing pipeline to EU & China (i.e., lots of cars "in-transit").

 

[chickensevil]

This morning's decline could be the market's perceived "threat" from competitors.

New 2016 Volt details. In my opinion it looks like very modest improvements and still not a very compelling amphibian.
2016 Chevy Volt: Bigger Battery, More Motor Power, New Range Extender Engine Details: EXPANDED

And some more about how Audi, BMW, Mercedes will compete with Tesla.
How Audi, BMW Mercedes Plan To Compete With Tesla--And Why

Update: The second article actually gave an anecdotal story praising Tesla, below.

"He told us the story on condition that we not source it to him, or identify the specific maker. But it illustrates why we may soon see a slew of all-electric sedans from German luxury makers that you might call Tesla-alikes.

Almost two years ago, early in 2013, one of the German prestige brands finally got its hands on a Tesla Model S and took the car to its test track and tear-down facility. The company's drivers hammered it around the track, recharged it, and drove it more.

Then the company's product board were asked to come to the test track and do the same. Altogether, the Tesla spent several days being driven at low and high speeds, and everything in between. We gather it performed flawlessly.

Emergency meeting
Then the executives responsible for future products convened a meeting.
They concluded that the Model S electric luxury sedan--a good-looking all-aluminum vehicle from a carmaker that didn't exist 10 years ago--provided a fast, comfortable, technologically advanced driving experience. An experience, moreover, that nothing in their current lineup--and nothing that this carmaker even had on the drawing board--could match.


And that was deeply, proundly unsettling to this particular maker, whose cars are world-renowned for their brand image. Fast forward perhaps six or seven years, and that deficiency may have been remedied. The question, of course, will be whether Tesla is a moving target--and whether these German electric sedans are targeting a car that's already about to be replaced."

The question is, which automaker in 2013 realized their mistake? VW, BMW, Audi, or MB?

I am leaning toward VW since they were the one company that basically had NO plans (that I am aware of) on the table before 2013.

Audi scrapped their E-tron in light of the Tesla, so they were at least working on something, although not quite good enough.
BMW clearly had to have been working on the i3 and i8 BEFORE Tesla brought the Model S to market and very likely was intended to be the competitor to Nissan (given how similar they are)
MB (Daimler) is (was) a core investor in Tesla so their product couldn't have been a surprise to them.

So I am leaning VW, which has me excited because VW is a really great company when it comes to pushing the limits, I think they just didn't pay any mind to the electric thing and focused on Clean-Diesel. It fits. So it very likely could be that the porsche they are going to put out could very well be a great competitor to the current Model S. The problem is, they had better be thinking and designing around being BETTER than the Model S or come 2018 I fear they will still be behind.

In any case, all of this is more of a longterm thought, so I will leave the discussion in this thread alone. Just wanted to throw out my thoughts on who the automaker is they were referencing.

 

[The Blue Owl]

The question is, which automaker in 2013 realized their mistake? VW, BMW, Audi, or MB?

I am leaning toward VW since they were the one company that basically had NO plans (that I am aware of) on the table before 2013.

My guess is BMW, based on:

Almost two years ago, early in 2013, one of the German prestige brands finally got its hands on a Tesla Model S

and:

And that was deeply, profoundly unsettling to this particular maker, whose cars are world-renowned for their brand image.

... and on the subsequent emergence of i3 and i8, which shows they mean it.

Edit: VW is to me the least interesting German brand. I lost respect for them ever since they decided that North-American drivers don't "get" German engineering and decided to become more bland and generic than Toyota. They replaced a perfectly good Passat, designed and built in Germany and exhibiting all attributes of a true driver's car, with an Americanized version made in Tennessee exclusively for the American market. The Passat we are getting here is now more boring than a Camry. But I hear its cup holders are great.

 

[maoing]

I wouldn't concern too much for Q3 7800 delivery goal. For Q4, in order to meet 35K annual guidance, it has to deliver 13000-14000 model S. Assume each China/EU/NA market gets 1/3 of production, then it's overwhelming pressure for EU/China delivery. NA should be OK in my opinion.

Even TM reaffirms 35K annual guidance in next week, I suspect there will be FUD about the logistic execution for this goal and stock price will be pushed down at some point before Q4 ER. It's indeed a challenge for TM to deliver so many vehicles in a quarter, and it will be a warm-up for even more challenging delivery work in 2015.

 

[chickensevil]

My guess is BMW, based on:



and:


... and on the subsequent emergence of i3 and i8, which shows they mean it.

Edit: VW is to me the least interesting German brand. I lost respect for them ever since they decided that North-American drivers don't "get" German engineering and decided to become more bland and generic than Toyota. They replaced a perfectly good Passat, designed and built in Germany and exhibiting all attributes of a true driver's car, with an Americanized version made in Tennessee exclusively for the American market. The Passat we are getting here is now more boring than a Camry. But I hear its cup holders are great.

Well the "prestigious" part I was assuming Porsche, but since they are owned by VW that was why I wrapped it up to just say VW. Obviously VW is not "prestigious", but they are very highly sold as far as volume, so I don't know... it would depend on how the company that they were talking about views itself... because this isn't a public perception of "prestigious" but rather the company's own self-assessment. If you asked any of the car companies if they had a "prestigious" brand, I am sure ALL of them would think they are special snowflakes that had the "best" customers, etc. So I was discounting the word entirely from the self-assessment since it is basically their own ego being wrapped up in that one word... and if anything VW has a pretty huge ego about themselves (I mean, so do all the other german brands... don't get me wrong... haha!). So both of those turn of phrases were just discounted from the view entirely because of that reasoning... That wasn't the author's viewpoint, it was the company's own egotistical viewpoint of their own perception.

Edit: Not saying you are wrong... I would put BMW in the second guess category for myself on who it was. Just my thoughts I why I didn't really consider either of those two phrases when making my guess.

- - - Updated - - -

And holy crap! What is with the Nasdaq volatility starting at 2PM? The index is going all over the place! 4540 to 4524.10 to 4536.16 to 4520.19 to 4540.62... all in about 30 minutes...

 

[Blip]

Volkswagen Group sells passenger cars under the Audi, Bentley, Bugatti, Lamborghini, Porsche, SEAT, Škoda and Volkswagen marques. Audi, VW and Skoda uses much of the same parts and motors. Also note that VW have a range of "standard" engines used in several models. The VW e-Up and e-Golf is already a success (in Norway). Migrating the electrical drivetrain + battery to a higher class Audi would not require much more than a bigger battery pack... My point is that I don't see any huge, technological differences between an e-Golf and a Tesla Model S. I don't think we should underestimate VW's ability to change. This concerns me as a Tesla investor. "Marketing", branding and the will to make electric cars is another story. As long as VW thinks that 160 miles "ought to be enough for anybody" and the oil price stays low, the "danger" of change is not imminent.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Based on Elon's tweet Barclays analyst Brian A. Johnson changed his view on TM US sales and Q3 results. According to the ValueWalk digest of the Barcalys latest note, they did detailed analysis of the available past deliveries data in NA, Europe and Asia to arrive at surprisingly strong projections for Q3:

• NA deliveries -1200 in July, 400 in August, 3274 (!!) in September
• WW deliveries in Q3 - 8,800 vs 7,800 guidance
• Q3 EPS of $0.25

Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA) To Handily Beat Q3 Guidance

 

[vgrinshpun]

My apologies for cross-posting, but I would be very curious to see what would be market reaction to the new note issued by Barclays.

Hopefully we will see more details on this tomorrow am, when Derek Vinyard posts his usual Bloomberg update :wink:

Based on Elon's tweet Barclays analyst Brian A. Johnson changed his view on TM US sales and Q3 results. According to the ValueWalk digest of the Barcalys latest note, they did detailed analysis of the available past deliveries data in NA, Europe and Asia to arrive at surprisingly strong projections for Q3:

• NA deliveries -1200 in July, 400 in August, 3274 (!!) in September
• WW deliveries in Q3 - 8,800 vs 7,800 guidance
• Q3 EPS of $0.25

Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA) To Handily Beat Q3 Guidance

 

[BlueTan85]

Based on Elon's tweet Barclays analyst Brian A. Johnson changed his view on TM US sales and Q3 results. According to the ValueWalk digest of the Barcalys latest note, they did detailed analysis of the available past deliveries data in NA, Europe and Asia to arrive at surprisingly strong projections for Q3:

• NA deliveries -1200 in July, 400 in August, 3274 (!!) in September
• WW deliveries in Q3 - 8,800 vs 7,800 guidance
• Q3 EPS of $0.25

Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA) To Handily Beat Q3 Guidance

Makes me think of that X-Files poster that said "I Want to Believe"

 

[Papafox]

My apologies for cross-posting, but I would be very curious to see what would be market reaction to the new note issued by Barclays.

vgrinshpun- Thanks so much for posting here. This is HUGE news if correct.

 

[Johan]

Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

vgrinshpun- Thanks so much for posting here. This is HUGE news if correct.

But where do they find another 1000 cars for the quarter??? In the Q3 predictions thread there has been some solid work by others that have not at all been able to come up with those kinds of figures. I remain a bit sceptical. But TSLA wise, if this causes a run-up ahead of ER I'll get out all calls, maybe even buy some puts just before the report...

Edit: looking at the graphs he modeled 2200 delivered in Asia... Hmm...

 

[mrdoubleb]

My apologies for cross-posting, but I would be very curious to see what would be market reaction to the new note issued by Barclays.

Hopefully we will see more details on this tomorrow am, when Derek Vinyard posts his usual Bloomberg update :wink:

Based on Elon's tweet Barclays analyst Brian A. Johnson changed his view on TM US sales and Q3 results. According to the ValueWalk digest of the Barcalys latest note, they did detailed analysis of the available past deliveries data in NA, Europe and Asia to arrive at surprisingly strong projections for Q3:

• NA deliveries -1200 in July, 400 in August, 3274 (!!) in September
• WW deliveries in Q3 - 8,800 vs 7,800 guidance
• Q3 EPS of $0.25

Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA) To Handily Beat Q3 Guidance

Oh, God, not again! Please don't turn this into Q3 2013, dear Barclays! I'm not saying a beat is not possible, but driving up expectations to unrealistic highs a week before the ER didn't work out too well last year...

 

[Johan]

Oh, God, not again! Please don't turn this into Q3 2013, dear Barclays! I'm not saying a beat is not possible, but driving up expectations to unrealistic highs a week before the ER didn't work out too well last year...

Exactly. It borders on short-term manipulation if you ask me... But hey we have to be smart about it and perhaps try to trade it, like I outlined in my post above.

 

[Runarbt]

Oh, God, not again! Please don't turn this into Q3 2013, dear Barclays! I'm not saying a beat is not possible, but driving up expectations to unrealistic highs a week before the ER didn't work out too well last year...

new form of bear attack.?

positive fud, to turn sour

 

[Johan]

Wouldn't we have been able to gauge a push of deliveries being that massive in september on these forum?!? It just seems too far fetched if you ask me...

 

[vgrinshpun]

But where do they find another 1000 cars for the quarter??? In the Q3 predictions thread there has been some solid work by others that have not at all been able to come up with those kinds of figures. I remain a bit sceptical. But TSLA wise, if this causes a run-up ahead of ER I'll get out all calls, maybe even buy some puts just before the report...

Edit: looking at the graphs he modeled 2200 delivered in Asia... Hmm...

If you look at the numbers in the linked article and in another earlier article linked in the latest article, all of their numbers outside NA are essentially the same as listed in Q3 prediction thread. They then back-out Eropean and Asian deliveries from the WW monthly deliveries that are in turn derived from the TM published quarterly delivery numbers. The last step is to apply Elon provided 65% on top of the NA deliveries last September. So in short, "extra" 1000 or so cars which you are questioning were delivered in US in September. All numbers delivered outside US match pretty closely with the numbers posted in the Q3 and EU deliveries threads of this forum.

In terms of production, if you assume that Barclays numbers are correct, TM probably could have produced close to 8800 cars, and then delivered practically all of the production during the Q3, emptying the pipeline.

Link to the article listing all non-US deliveries that Barclays include in their model:

Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA) Earnings Release Date: Nov.5
Their table listing European deliveries:

 

[vgrinshpun]

Wouldn't we have been able to gauge a push of deliveries being that massive in september on these forum?!? It just seems too far fetched if you ask me...

Yes the September push was documented in several threads on this Forum, based on postings by several members.