Just because it is going to cost Tesla $12.6K to make doesn't mean that's what they will be willing to sell it to you for. They need to account for their R&D and the logistics of the upgrades, including firmware changes. Since there is only going to be around 2,400 roadsters in the world, they aren't going to be able to justify spending a ton of money on making better battery packs and bringing down the costs as much as they will be able to for the Model S and X. Just my 2 cents.
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Just because it is going to cost Tesla $12.6K to make doesn't mean that's what they will be willing to sell it to you for. They need to account for their R&D and the logistics of the upgrades, including firmware changes. Since there is only going to be around 2,400 roadsters in the world, they aren't going to be able to justify spending a ton of money on making better battery packs and bringing down the costs as much as they will be able to for the Model S and X. Just my 2 cents.
Of course they don't. But how much do you think the plumbing, electronics and packaging really cost? Let's use the $3000 to $6000 number quoted above - thats between $55 and $110 per kWh.
Add that together and you have about $461 per kWh - $526 per kWh for the retail 18650s.
My point is that those numbers are off the bottom of the 2010 estimate from Technology Review, and even on the low end for the 2015 estimate - right now - using retail cells.
So the Technology Review numbers aren't even good guesses.
Of course the Model S packs will be cheaper for Tesla to make than Roadster packs. They will be making 20,000+ per year of the Model S, and a few hundred of the Roadster packs.
I would hope that when they are making 20,000+ units per year the overhead of plumbing, electronics and packaging will be much less than the Roadster.
As to how much Tesla should charge for Roadster replacement packs - I've said it before and I will say it again:
Tesla needs to charge an amount of money that does not scare Model S buyers. Roadster packs are going to be replaced more than 3 and a half years ahead of the first Model S packs - and the price for them is going to set the expectation for potential Model S buyers. The Model S consumers aren't going to care about the different economies of scale between a Roadster pack and a Model S pack - if they see a high number it will scare them out of purchasing.
I hadn't heard that before but that makes sense. Actually that's the exact reason I am not too worried about not having an extended warranty. I figured they aren't going to want a bunch of issues with the roadsters as they are trying to ramp up the model s. Not that I foresee any warranty issues as the roadster has been holding up pretty well since getting the initial glitches taken care of.
At some point there will be a crossover of 2006 batteries that are in our cars now being more expensive/harder to get than the ubiquitous 2011 Model S batteries they will have billions of sitting around. Even figuring in PEM mods and firmware reprogramming there will still be a point were it will just be easier/cheaper to update the old electronics to fit the new batteries than asking Panosonic to go backwards in manufacturing.
smorgasbord
Active Member
I've decided to take some of the money I'd spend on the Battery Warranty and invest in Tesla stock instead. If Tesla goes bust (unlikely IMO) I lose either way, but if things go well I'll make enough on stock appreciation in 7 years time to buy the battery at market.
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