Hey guys, the end of Q2 is about half a month away, and delivery numbers will be reported by July 3. It's time to start discussions.
I have a feeling that they will beat the delivery (10-11k cars) and production (12.5k cars) guidance. I'll outline why:
There are 64 workdays in Q2. Tesla went into Q1 with about 1000 cars/week or 200 cars/day. Even without ramping up at all, this results in 12,800 cars produced. I have reason to believe that at least through June, Tesla will run at 1100 cars/week or 220 cars/day. There are 22 workdays in June, so this would increase the total to 13,240 cars produced.
For deliveries, this seems to be the case:
United States:
Between April and May, Hybrid Cars estimates say that Tesla delivered 4,200 cars in the US (1,900 in April and 2,400 in May). Last quarter, Tesla delivered 5,500 cars in NA, or 5,100 cars in the US. I suspect Tesla will deliver at least 6,000 cars in the US in Q2, and possibly up to 6,500 cars.
Canada:
Tesla delivered 167 cars in Canada in April, and assuming a conservative average of 150/month for Canada results in 450 deliveries in Canada for Q2.
Europe:
Tesla delivered 1,882 cars in April and May in Europe (818 in April, 1064 in May). Last quarter, Tesla delivered 3,543 cars in Europe. I would guess that Tesla will deliver at the very least around 3,000 cars in Europe in Q2, and possibly up to ~3,500 cars.
China:
Tesla delivered around 574 cars in China in April (thanks Gerasimental), and will probably deliver at least 1,000 throughout Q2, and possibly up to 1,500 cars.
Hong Kong, Australia, Japan, Other:
Probably around 400 cars.
Total: 10,450-11,950 cars
I also subtracted around 400 cars that will be from the CPO program.
We will see on July 3.
I have a feeling that they will beat the delivery (10-11k cars) and production (12.5k cars) guidance. I'll outline why:
There are 64 workdays in Q2. Tesla went into Q1 with about 1000 cars/week or 200 cars/day. Even without ramping up at all, this results in 12,800 cars produced. I have reason to believe that at least through June, Tesla will run at 1100 cars/week or 220 cars/day. There are 22 workdays in June, so this would increase the total to 13,240 cars produced.
For deliveries, this seems to be the case:
United States:
Between April and May, Hybrid Cars estimates say that Tesla delivered 4,200 cars in the US (1,900 in April and 2,400 in May). Last quarter, Tesla delivered 5,500 cars in NA, or 5,100 cars in the US. I suspect Tesla will deliver at least 6,000 cars in the US in Q2, and possibly up to 6,500 cars.
Canada:
Tesla delivered 167 cars in Canada in April, and assuming a conservative average of 150/month for Canada results in 450 deliveries in Canada for Q2.
Europe:
Tesla delivered 1,882 cars in April and May in Europe (818 in April, 1064 in May). Last quarter, Tesla delivered 3,543 cars in Europe. I would guess that Tesla will deliver at the very least around 3,000 cars in Europe in Q2, and possibly up to ~3,500 cars.
China:
Tesla delivered around 574 cars in China in April (thanks Gerasimental), and will probably deliver at least 1,000 throughout Q2, and possibly up to 1,500 cars.
Hong Kong, Australia, Japan, Other:
Probably around 400 cars.
Total: 10,450-11,950 cars
I also subtracted around 400 cars that will be from the CPO program.
We will see on July 3.