thought it made sense to have a thread on the investor's forum looking at the EU climate re Tesla from an investor's perspective. I'm particularly hopeful some TMC members from the EU can share some of their observations on Tesla's public perception. obviously post whatever contribution you like, but I am going to frame how I see the current situation.
at the moment, there's reason to think 2014 sales in the EU are slower than general expectations were say 6 months ago. not the least of the indicators of a slower ramp up was Elon alluding to this on the last earnings conference call (look for Elon's response to Brian Johnson of Barclays Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA) news: Tesla Motors Management Discusses Q4 2013 Results - Earnings Call Transcript - Seeking Alpha). fwiw, I think Tesla will meet or beat sales guidance for 2014 and beyond as I see China beating expectations by a wider margin than any shortfall in the EU (see the excellent thread Cankooo1 has started on the Chinese Market China Market situation and outlook).
in the long term, I think Tesla will meet the general guidance in the EU for Model S sales they first suggested last Spring, roughly 15K/year. I base this on the objective competitive advantages of the car creating a market for Tesla (I consider several aspects of the car objectively superior, among them instant torque, the low evenly distributed center of gravity of the battery for handling, storage, safety advantage with the larger crumple zone, quiet, capacity for remote upgrade, fuel efficiency, and environmental impact).
so, while I have pretty strong confidence in Tesla eventually finding its market share in Europe, I think there are a variety of more subjective factors that will determine how long it will take for Tesla to find that market share. Basically, there has been something of a Teslamania and an Elonmania in the U.S. since the spring of 2013 which has basically made for a massive free marketing campaign for Tesla. this seems to be repeating in China, but my sense is it's been different in Europe. this is where I think any of you in the EU can help the rest of us quite a bit.
maybe there are ways we can try to quantify this subjective "mania" effect. I tried looking at google trends unsuccessfully a couple of days ago. this may just be my unfamiliarity with it... if anyone has gotten useful Tesla information on it, please chime in.
I'll just mention a few ideas I've had about benchmarking this subjective aspect of public awareness that can accelerate the sales ramp up. here in the U.S. I've observed,
1. frequent suggestions of "Tesla as the Apple of Cars," and "Elon Musk filling the void of Steve Jobs" (i.e. CEO/visionary that will impact the world (not to get into whether it makes any sense to compare the two... just that there's a perception of a prominent cultural role Elon is seen as stepping into)).
2. my casual observation is that a very high percentage of automobile magazines have had Tesla on the cover, and that nearly all reviews have been in the strong to game-changing strong range (sidenote: this includes the NY Times review. their car reviewer suggested it was the biggest thing since the Model T. the John Broder story was months later, and Broder is not a car reviewer).
3. at this point, almost universally, articles that clearly are written to put Tesla and/or TSLA in a negative light write that the car itself is outstanding if you can afford it. that is, it seems this is such a widely held perception among the public that the naysayers seem to feel obliged to write this so as not to have their stories dismissed as biased.
4. reading comments sections of general news articles, most commentators seem to know what SuperChargers are and be familiar with the plan for a Gen III vehicle.
So, I'm wondering how these benchmarks compare to what is going on in the various countries in the EU.
Couple other areas I'm wondering about,
in the U.S, Tesla looks great compared to general opinions of domestic automakers. have to imagine this advantage becomes a disadvantage in the EU. obviously, in Germany their is likely loyalty to domestic brands and skepticism of a foreign challenger. what about other EU countries... is their heavy brand loyalty in other countries to their domestic brands vs. Tesla, is their a sense of European loyalty to German brands in the rest of Europe? I've heard that the Japanese luxury brands have sold very poorly in the EU. Is this true in your country? do you think Tesla is likely to be similarly affected?
Finally, we're all pretty well aware of the great value a Model S is in Norway. I'm wondering in which countries the Model S is better or worse a value than it is in the U.S. when you account for subsidies. Maybe a 85 kWh Model S without options is a good benchmark. Here in the U.S. that would be about $73,000 after EV incentives, whereas a BMW 5 series and a Mercedes E class start around $50,000 (without options)
at the moment, there's reason to think 2014 sales in the EU are slower than general expectations were say 6 months ago. not the least of the indicators of a slower ramp up was Elon alluding to this on the last earnings conference call (look for Elon's response to Brian Johnson of Barclays Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA) news: Tesla Motors Management Discusses Q4 2013 Results - Earnings Call Transcript - Seeking Alpha). fwiw, I think Tesla will meet or beat sales guidance for 2014 and beyond as I see China beating expectations by a wider margin than any shortfall in the EU (see the excellent thread Cankooo1 has started on the Chinese Market China Market situation and outlook).
in the long term, I think Tesla will meet the general guidance in the EU for Model S sales they first suggested last Spring, roughly 15K/year. I base this on the objective competitive advantages of the car creating a market for Tesla (I consider several aspects of the car objectively superior, among them instant torque, the low evenly distributed center of gravity of the battery for handling, storage, safety advantage with the larger crumple zone, quiet, capacity for remote upgrade, fuel efficiency, and environmental impact).
so, while I have pretty strong confidence in Tesla eventually finding its market share in Europe, I think there are a variety of more subjective factors that will determine how long it will take for Tesla to find that market share. Basically, there has been something of a Teslamania and an Elonmania in the U.S. since the spring of 2013 which has basically made for a massive free marketing campaign for Tesla. this seems to be repeating in China, but my sense is it's been different in Europe. this is where I think any of you in the EU can help the rest of us quite a bit.
maybe there are ways we can try to quantify this subjective "mania" effect. I tried looking at google trends unsuccessfully a couple of days ago. this may just be my unfamiliarity with it... if anyone has gotten useful Tesla information on it, please chime in.
I'll just mention a few ideas I've had about benchmarking this subjective aspect of public awareness that can accelerate the sales ramp up. here in the U.S. I've observed,
1. frequent suggestions of "Tesla as the Apple of Cars," and "Elon Musk filling the void of Steve Jobs" (i.e. CEO/visionary that will impact the world (not to get into whether it makes any sense to compare the two... just that there's a perception of a prominent cultural role Elon is seen as stepping into)).
2. my casual observation is that a very high percentage of automobile magazines have had Tesla on the cover, and that nearly all reviews have been in the strong to game-changing strong range (sidenote: this includes the NY Times review. their car reviewer suggested it was the biggest thing since the Model T. the John Broder story was months later, and Broder is not a car reviewer).
3. at this point, almost universally, articles that clearly are written to put Tesla and/or TSLA in a negative light write that the car itself is outstanding if you can afford it. that is, it seems this is such a widely held perception among the public that the naysayers seem to feel obliged to write this so as not to have their stories dismissed as biased.
4. reading comments sections of general news articles, most commentators seem to know what SuperChargers are and be familiar with the plan for a Gen III vehicle.
So, I'm wondering how these benchmarks compare to what is going on in the various countries in the EU.
Couple other areas I'm wondering about,
in the U.S, Tesla looks great compared to general opinions of domestic automakers. have to imagine this advantage becomes a disadvantage in the EU. obviously, in Germany their is likely loyalty to domestic brands and skepticism of a foreign challenger. what about other EU countries... is their heavy brand loyalty in other countries to their domestic brands vs. Tesla, is their a sense of European loyalty to German brands in the rest of Europe? I've heard that the Japanese luxury brands have sold very poorly in the EU. Is this true in your country? do you think Tesla is likely to be similarly affected?
Finally, we're all pretty well aware of the great value a Model S is in Norway. I'm wondering in which countries the Model S is better or worse a value than it is in the U.S. when you account for subsidies. Maybe a 85 kWh Model S without options is a good benchmark. Here in the U.S. that would be about $73,000 after EV incentives, whereas a BMW 5 series and a Mercedes E class start around $50,000 (without options)
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