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My guess is that it would be the second year of production. In order to price a lease, they need to have some idea of residual value. That will be extremely difficult to establish for the Model S during the first year.
It took Toyota until 2006 to actually do a lease for the Prius. Nobody was willing to establish residual values because they were unsure about the replacement costs of the NiMH batteries or if they would last.
I think the big change for the Model S will be the ability to finance them via a conventional auto loan. That is not available on the Roadster.
Also, Tesla Motors is leaving a lot of money on the table by not financing. From my knowledge, there is easily $1,000 per vehicle for a dealer selling a car with bank auto financing. The dealer gets paid to originate that auto loan/lease for the bank.