Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Buckminster]

can we rename this the dark and stormy thread ? seems like many posters are just dropping out it was a good run here while it lasted
the trolls have won... shame

What is dark and stormy?

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1790335957939442173

 

[Mengy]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1790335957939442173

Why would it?

 

[CHGolferJim]

Maybe some day we will get the full story, but I think it was rather evident from the firing of Rebecca on Day 1 that she refused to cooperate and give Elon the 10% headcount to cut from her department. Maybe she thought the Supercharger department was immune, maybe she didn't want to make any enemies, maybe she really liked all 500 of her employees, I don't know, but it is quite clear that Elon was very serious about cutting 10% from EVERY department, and she must not have been with the program. I can't say I agree with the way it was handled, as the last thing Tesla needs right now is more reason to be publicly bashed by the media, but I'd bet that a great many of the employees will be hired back if they are still spending $500 million this year on SuCs.

Unless key people were quietly spoken to before the layoff, why would anyone treated so arbitrarily want to return, especially if their previous compensation was messed with?

 

[advocate8]

If you have been holding TSLA for a long time (about 9 years for me I think), and obsessively follow Elon, its actually really clear and simple. He says exactly what he thinks and what he is planning to do, and then he does it.
Its often late, and people spend a huge amount of time reading horoscopes trying to infer depth in every slight nuance of every tweet and every meme, and every report of who he meets of what every employee ever says.

CEOs are full of such BS in general, and are so short term in their thinking, that the idea of a CEO with a 10 or even 20 year plan seems laughable, and mainstream media and most investors therefor flat out ignore Elon when he says what he thinks and what he will do.

Elon genuinely believes that in the future, all cars will be autonomous. In that world, a manual car is like a horse or a typewriter. Of nothing but curiosity and value in a museum. He does not want Tesla's to end up that way. Thus the company is 100% focused on autonomy. Maybe that means a totally different approach to charging (Your car could sneak off at night to find a wireless supercharger location, then return), maybe it means Mexico is not needed, maybe it means they need so much data that they simply don't care about making a profit on 3/Y sales.

I recently discovered the original price I paid for TSMC stock about 5 years ago, before selling it 4.5 years ago. I did well, but what an idiot. I should have held my nerve and HODl. I'm not making the same mistake with my TSLA. We are at a serious inflection point for the auto industry, centered around autonomy. I'm not going to sell until this becomes clear to wall st.

Why the whipsaw decision-making then, like the SC team, if he has a steady, clear vision?

 

[alexxs88]

Unless key people were quietly spoken to before the layoff, why would anyone treated so arbitrarily want to return?

Why wouldn't they have kept them from the start?

 

[mongo]

Yup-- I've spoken to a few friends who bought post-2018 and that was their exact reason for voting no.... I tried to present the "we need to insure Tesla honors its contract with Elon for previous work" and their explanation was they (as shareholders) never voted for any such deal in the first place, and they certainly wouldn't vote for it now.

I don't agree with them, but I think it's not an unfair argument for them to make.

Fair? How can that be a fair argument? Buying a company/ shares thereof means also acknowledging its obligations.
The fact that there was an already vested compensation plan did not dissuade them from purchasing the stock, but now they refuse to honor that agreement? Nothing fair about that.
What next for them, supporting canceling lifetime premium connectivity/ Supercharging, vehicle warranties, paying off loans, and remitting taxes?

 

[2daMoon]

What is dark and stormy?

Wasn't it determined to be a rum drink?

This is the party thread then?

 

[SunCatcher]

Unless key people were quietly spoken to before the layoff, why would anyone treated so arbitrarily want to return, especially if their previous compensation was messed with?

Wasn't there talk of them getting several months' severance pay? If so, why wouldn't they want to go back? "Hey, go ahead, fire me again!" Pretty good deal to keep rinsing and repeating. /s

 

[Ellec]

Crazy!

 

[2daMoon]

For investors who have noticed emotions (worries, FUD, etc.) playing a role in their strategy, this is a MUST WATCH video.

Even if you have already been immunized, it might be time for a booster shot. Tom Nash will fix you up. Despite the click-bait thumbnail and headline, good information awaits inside.

HODL
​

Also, early in the video Tom speaks (with his Russian accent) of those market players who are in cahoots with the MSM FUD machine. Then later simply calls those people "cahoots" and this might be useful as a synonym for "troll" in discussions here if we may no longer call 'em like we see 'em. Let's just call them a cahoot.

 

[elasalle]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1790335957939442173

Didn't she sell all her shares (personal) along with Ross ?

 

[dl003]

Waymo objectively operates better than the Tesla since it's actually autonomous. People will say Tesla's approach is universal, but at the moment is not autonomous, As I said, IF Tesla can pull it off, given how cheap their technological solution is, they'll have a significant MOAT at least for half a decade, maybe even more. If the market is truly what some economic models believe it is, then it will be impossible for them to take the whole market. We've seen this in other fields where technological advancements are the key to having a MOAT, unless you move forward as well, the rest will catch up. If Tesla, with limited funding (until 2020) will have been able to achieve in around a decade, the competitors, with virtually unlimited funding, access to the brains that found the solution for Tesla and a clear path to take will probably get it done much sooner.



I hope this bit was missing a /s at the end. The last 4 years showed us there's anything but a direct correlation between stock hype and actual achievements (not talking about Tesla here)

I was being dead serious. the last 4 years have seen no earning meme stocks decimated while strong earning tech names soaring. TSLA got its 2024 EPS est cut by about 60% in a year and the SP reflects that. If Waymo is that good, where is the money?

Here's what Waymo looks like on GOOG quarterly report.
Revenue of $226M and operating loss of $1.237B, so -500% operating margin. Doesn't look like a successful operation to me, given it's been out for nearly 10 years.

 

[ggies07]

Why the whipsaw decision-making then, like the SC team, if he has a steady, clear vision?

As someone who also deals with data and reports, I like this take by Jordan:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1790072726507385059

 

[Zaddy Daddy]

It seems like Tesla should easily hit 75+% growth in GWh deployed in 2024. In 2023, they only deployed 11.7 GWh.

If they began the year with 20 GWh annual capacity, then simply deploying 20 GWh will get them 70.6% growth.

Even ramping slowly from 20-40 should make up the difference even with delays and lags from production to deployment.

As to revenue, it's been mentioned upthread that the impact of delayed revenue has a compounding effect each quarter so even if there had been price cuts (we don't really know), revenue would likely outpace GWhs deployed.

(The caveat of all this is that deployment is lumpy and could depend on some "mega" (pun-intended) projects that could slip in timing by a quarter or two.)

14.7 GWh.

So Tesla is expecting ~ 25 GWh delivered this year, even though their Megapack production rate is ~20 GWh annualized right now.

~ 20 make sense from Megapack, maybe they are ramping Powerwall volumes signficantly?

 

[2daMoon]

As someone who also deals with data and reports, I like this take by Jordan:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1790072726507385059

"Fail, Iterate, Test, Repeat" is a mantra for Elon and those who grok his strategy for growing fast.

From where I sit, this method seems to have been effective so far, for every company in the Elonosphere. There is no reason to change it.

 

[SO16]

Didn't she sell all her shares (personal) along with Ross ?

No. Just from her business account. Still has them in her personal account.

 

[Knightshade]

Fair? How can that be a fair argument? Buying a company/ shares thereof means also acknowledging its obligations.

But they- the new shareholder- has no obligation at all based on how someone ELSE voted on something in the past.

Doubly so when a court voided that thing.


But let's look at it a different way-- if you had voted AGAINST in 2018-- are you free to do so again today?

Why are you, who voted against then, bound to vote FOR now because other shareholders did something different either time?

If you're still on-board at that point, why is a NEW shareholder even more obligated than an old one to vote in a way he doesn't feel is correct for his view?

The fact that there was an already vested compensation plan did not dissuade them from purchasing the stock

They could've bought the stock after the case of course.

But apart from that- they're voting TODAY.

Today, that compensation plan was voided by a court- it legally does not exist under the current ruling.


So if that new shareholder is someone who would've voted no in 2018, them voting no now seems to be something you can make a pretty reasonable argument for.

I mean- if there's no actual choice why bother with a vote?

How is that a fair argument for you?
The point is that Elon delivered what was in the agreement, and any right-minded person honors an agreement, even if things outside of that agreement (e.g. things that happen AFTER the timeframe) don't go exactly according to their wishes.

See above. For one- Currently there is no agreement. That's WHY there's a new vote.

The court found voters weren't fully informed for the original vote- thus deal is void. New vote.

For another do you think someone who voted NO in 2018 (or would have, but wasn't a shareholder till later) is ALSO obligated to vote different now? If so why?




Again, I voted my thousands of shares yes- it was a good deal in 2018 and I still think it's a good deal now regardless of the court.... but the idea there's no rational argument for anyone to do or think otherwise just ain't so even if you don't agree with the argument. It still exists.

, but now they refuse to honor that agreement? Nothing fair about that.

Again- there is no agreement currently- not legally.

And they never voted FOR the one that did exist in the past.

What next for them, supporting canceling lifetime premium connectivity/ Supercharging, vehicle warranties, paying off loans, and remitting taxes?

Except, of course, those contracts and obligations still exist

They don't get a vote on them.

 

[SO16]

No one who follows Elon should be surprised by his method of letting people go and subsequently rehiring some.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1790055817737044393

 

[ggies07]

Also, with how slow the govt/big auto work, we need need Tesla to stay as nimble as possible. While I voted for Biden, not happy about the 100% tariffs on Chinese EVs whilst at the same time the US auto companies are pulling back. This transition cannot be slowed anymore than it already is.

So let Tesla be small, nimble, and fierce so we can get as many EVs (whether robo or not) on the road.