Search results

That's the scenario I find likely if Musk is serious about getting back to 25% no matter what. Not Twitter though. :) Potentially SpaceX.

They buy them from the market as far as I know. So I get the underlying message of what you're saying, but it would be very hard for Tesla to buyback ~50% of their outstanding shares in order to make Elon's 12.9% effectively be 25.8%.

I missed this part of your post. That's not how math works. They'd just reduce the number of shares, but the percentage ownership obviously stays the same.

No, please check what I quoted from your post. You said Tesla makes a lot of money, does share buybacks and Elon gets to the required 25%. I'm not aware of any financial mechanism in which these things would happen. If anything, as I mentioned, in order for elon to get to his 25%, the easiest...

How would that work though? The more success tesla has, the more expensive it would be for elon to acquire the required control. In this hypothetical scenario, he'd benefit more from lowering Tesla's valuation initially in order to make buying the required shares cheaper.

I don't think what I said was that difficult to comprehend. The OP I quoted said that Musk isn't afraid of Chinese EVs, providing as proof his opposition to Biden's tariffs. I countered that with the fact that the tariffs aren't just on the cars, but on the parts as well, which will increase...

The tarrifs will negatively affect Tesla costs. https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-jones-05-20-2024/card/heard-on-the-street-tesla-could-be-hit-by-ev-battery-tariffs-we1tt0s2gevYHp9lNp3x

If I recall correctly, Tesla's definition of a crash is different than the one used for the general data. So one might argue they aren't directly comparable

Totally agreed. AI is another company and shouldn't use the profits from the first with no consideration to the reinvestments required by the car business in order to keep its margins alive. However, Elon is desperate for attention. So AI is the hottest thing right now and Elon feels the need...

The bolded part is a cheap attack and could be returned in exactly the same manner. No, this is me judging what Elon said and the results. The first paragraph is not valid, in my opinion. With that logic, any product in the world has a "quasi-infinite" demand, but normally you'd expect the CEO...

Let's be realistic, it's deceiving. They were adding capacity in the tens of percent compared to existing and a company the size of Tesla has a rough idea of how supply-demand-price curves look like. So when you say "demand outpaces production" as the CEO of a huge company, while on the verge of...

There's no logic to the argument against short selling. If Tesla would be posting results suitable (or better) for its stock price, short selling would be really low. Short seller interest can be used as a proxy of how the market views the perspectives of the company, but not as a justification...

Agreed, but I think there's a good reason for it. The perception is that Musk has achieved incredible things so far with his businesses and, as a consequence, it's worth allowing him his freedom as it should mean more of the same thing. The fact that he's one of the richest people in the world...

Yes. That theory is beyond pie in the sky. I know people working on the infotainment systems for big OEMs (Daimler, BMW) and the designs and production are auctioned off with the lowest bidder winning it most of the time. They use off the shelf processors that are available in volume and have...

That's not true for the vast majority of the cars sold now. For several reasons: 1. Most legacy manufacturers don't run latest Nvidia chips or even Nvidia chips at all. They prefer older processor designs as they're cheaper due to volume. 2. The integration required to run a car autonomously...

Isn't this exactly what was being said about Tesla though? That they won't be able to manufacture cars as efficiently as the legacy manufacturers. Tesla can't afford to be this arrogant on a market that's just in the process of being developed. There are a lot of companies that have incredibly...

I think FSD trial and take rate is what this quarter hinges on. And any seemingly good news on the autonomy side will rule over any bad/good news in terms of deliveries / quarterly profits. It will be very interesting to see the real-world improvement of 12.4 vs 12.3 and if it's anything close...

D1 is underperforming Nvidia's offerings and wouldn't be competitive when offered as part of a cloud service. Not to mention Tesla hasn't moved an inch towards implementing any sort of cloud as a service solution and doesn't really have the expertise nor can do any sort of integration with...

Uh, what do you mean? Dojo?

What does moving AI away from Tesla actually mean? For better or worse, FSD is the best AI play that Elon has and that's tied to Tesla in every other way. Optimus is early in development, but everyone is demo-ing the same things there, safe to assume there's no moat to be had.

I think it would be worth asking the people running the tracker if: 1. They are removing the outlier data collected. I'm not a statistician but that's pretty normal to do. 2. If they publish individual data collected, filtered by individual testers.

I don't disagree, but I think a 5-10x improvement will shin through. There's not enough variability in the way it's collected to be able to mask such an improvement.

True, but the FSD tracker should provide some clarity on that. I'm expecting to see the average number of kms between interventions go from 100km to 500-1000km. I don't see any scenario in which the CEO of a company employing ~140 000 people gets angry at one person and ends up firing 500...

No, as I was still waiting on clarifications. Again, we don't know how good the Yipit data is. My personal take is that the number isn't impressive, it's the same story as it was with the Model 2 Gen3. Technically the original news gets one piece of the puzzle wrong and you can call it a lie. In...

I'd wait until we get actual data from Tesla before celebrating this. Technically 4% is double what that survey said which would count as "much higher than 2%", but at the same time I don't think anyone would celebrate it. Saying that, if Tesla is able to get 100x improvement on DE frequency...

So people tend to assume the current trend, be it bearish or bullish, will continue indefinitely and just pile on? Colour me surprised :)

Why wouldn't they have kept them from the start?

Waymo objectively operates better than the Tesla since it's actually autonomous. People will say Tesla's approach is universal, but at the moment is not autonomous, As I said, IF Tesla can pull it off, given how cheap their technological solution is, they'll have a significant MOAT at least for...

It's not correct to compare Tesla with the other manufacturers. Their valuation has tens of percent of yearly growth rate built-in. That's a very naive thing to say and believe when: 1. The companies actually operating autonomous systems managed to do so without "millions of cars". 2. There...

I'm not disputing most of your points and I don't think the ones with which I don't agree actually matter to the point I was trying to make. :) Let me rephrase it. If you're Elon and on the cusp of turning on a money printing machine on 8/8, your company has 25B in the bank, there's no logical...

Factually, unless you believe that Fsd 12.3.6 has a critical disengagement frequency lower than 1/ 17000 miles, then Tesla's costs will be similar. If you're looking at the loss that Google's "other bets" is reporting, then we just don't know what comes from operational losses and what comes...

Do you genuinely believe that firing an entire department and tens of percent from others is good for morale? This isn't a question about bulls and bears, but common sense.

They get kickbacks from the seller. My company offered (through klarna) 0% 12 month payment plans for our products (1000-4000 € sales) and we, as the seller, were paying klarna 18% of the sale price back. That's with reference interest rates in the 0% range.

It puzzles me why you're so confused and aggressive about this. Without going into the validity of the data, why would you outrightly assume the right axis' maximum value should be 100%. If you want to represent time-based evolution in the single digit percentage, there's no logical reason to...

Why do you think the FSD tracker is flawed? (I also partially share this thought, but always curious to get another perspective) But as a broader point, if Tesla is just about to turn the switch on a robotaxi moneymaking fleet, with 25B in the bank, what's the logic behind antagonizing and...

Legacy OEMs have a pipeline delay measured of at least 3-4 years. My 2023 bmw 5 series has pretty much perfect lane assist and can easily handle highways with any sort of bends you'd normally find. My previous 2017 Mercedes was hilariously bad. Essentially any manufacturer that is happy to pay...

They are not comparable and winning at chess seemed impossible only for people outside CS. You can build a pretty strong chess algorithm quite early while learning to program (I did it as part of a homework in my second year of university), how it fared against a grandmaster was mostly a...

It will be soon enough. Germany has a huge say in EU regulations and German carmakers have a huge say in German politics. Arguably, with most R&D on ICE engines stopped, their profitability from old tech cars will increase. It's just a question of how fast will Tesla and the Chinese...

Where do Elon's 50% CAGR targets fall under? :)

It's really puzzling to me how being well below the bear case (based on the Ark projections of 2019) in terms of car volume and margins is seen as an achievement and proof of good execution by some.

Fair enough. There was another poster who made a very good comment yesterday on this conundrum. They have the best data for California, but launching there would invite permanent comparisons to Waymo. Which, at least initially, might be underwhelming for Tesla.

Not at all. Please read the regulation posted on the California's DMV website where it contains all the definitions related to this. Also have a look at Waymo's reported disengagements, where all cars had safety drivers present. Essentially a safety driver in an autonomous test vehicle has a...

I mentioned this before. When you're priced for double digit CAGR, you can't really use companies priced 10x cheaper as a yard stick. This is Chinese companies eating everyone else's lunch. Same as Elon predicted.

Are they though? BYD showed high double digit growth in pretty much every category for April. Source: https://insideevs.com/news/718208/byd-global-plugin-car-sales-april2024/ If I were to bet, I'd bet on doing it outside of California and then releasing cherry-picked statistics, same as...

Do you think Waymo would go as far as saying their cars can handle construction sites if they couldn't in any situation? I don't think the potential benefits of them saying this outweigh the risks. Secondly, I don't think it's feasible to imagine that they're able to map construction areas in...

Seems like they can now handle un-mapped construction zones without having generic issues (I'm sure there are situations when it still fails):

And to clarify, since they'll need to report disengagements to the DMV, your expectation is that, as soon as they start rollouts with safety drivers, their official disengagement data will be on par with Waymo?

If you give a "yes/no" answer, like the poster you're advocating for, then it means your knowledge and status in the field is such that no other explanations are required. I always added extensive arguments to my points.

Allow me to discard your opinion, unless you're an expert in AI and self-driving, your opinion is merely based on hopes and dreams. :) And when do you think the driverless rollout will happen? Just so I can set a reminder to come back to this topic.

It's pretty clear that nobody on this forum (and only a handful of people that post online) have the required background and inside knowledge required to comment with such certainty. Just think for a second that if they were that tied to pre-processing, they wouldn't be able to handle any...