Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Usain]

It's probably too soon for that. They need to launch & ramp CT yet and they don't want to Osbourne M3 sales in the meantime by talking about Gen3 too much.

I can buy that maybe they want people to focus on Cybertruck right now.

But I don't think answering questions about the Gen 3 stage of development would have any Osbourne effect at all. No matter what, the Gen 3 vehicle is a long way off.

And the Model 3 and Gen 3 should have almost zero cross-shopping. If Model 3 and Gen 3 are competitors then Tesla is planning to do something very, very wrong.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

But they are going to produce more cars starting with this quarter and that’s as near term as it gets. They literally just shutdown factories so they could increase production.

They guided for slightly higher numbers. That doesn't count as "more" either in the context of valuation for a growth company, or accomplishing the mission by selling as many electric vehicles as possible. In my opinion, the next couple of years will show the means to the mission has shifted. Stock price is going to suffer until the new means is realized.

 

[MP3Mike]

I wish we had gotten a little more insight on where the Gen 3 vehicle is in its stage of development. A lot of good questions were not asked.

Is the shape of the vehicle finalized?
Is there a prototype?
Is there a prototype assembly line being built?
Will it be a 2-seater?
Has it really been decided if it will initially have a steering wheel?
Have any final decisions been made at all?

It would just be a wasted question, and get the same response as the question about when the Highland Model 3 is coming to North America: "unfortunately we don’t answer product related questions and timings on earnings calls"

The earnings calls are not AMA sessions.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Craig Johnson - Piper Sandler - this morning:
TSLA—Indicated lower this AM: Shares appears poised to retest support from a prior breakout level. • RS has inflected higher off the midline and impressive TechniGrade ranking. • Add to positions once support has been confirmed.

It's hard to know sometimes what technical analysts consider 'support levels', but Craig may be referring to the Q3 low Jun 02/Aug 18: (NOT ADVISE!)

Cheers to the Longs!

 

[Artful Dodger]

Stock price is going to suffer until the new means is realized.

Did GoJo make it back onto CNBC yet today?

 

[MD70]

I wish we had gotten a little more insight on where the Gen 3 vehicle is in its stage of development. A lot of good questions were not asked.

Is the shape of the vehicle finalized?
Is there a prototype?
Is there a prototype assembly line being built?
Will it be a 2-seater?
Has it really been decided if it will initially have a steering wheel?
Have any final decisions been made at all?

My worry is that they are way behind in this and are still at the designing stage.

 

[FreqFlyer]

I wish we had gotten a little more insight on where the Gen 3 vehicle is in its stage of development. A lot of good questions were not asked.

Is the shape of the vehicle finalized?
Is there a prototype?
Is there a prototype assembly line being built?
Will it be a 2-seater?
Has it really been decided if it will initially have a steering wheel?
Have any final decisions been made at all?

I bet Elon would not have answered the above questions. Someone tried and got denied.
Would it not be better to have those questions answered closer to debut and production? I expect your questions to be answered next year, around this time.

 

[FreqFlyer]

I can buy that maybe they want people to focus on Cybertruck right now.

But I don't think answering questions about the Gen 3 stage of development would have any Osbourne effect at all. No matter what, the Gen 3 vehicle is a long way off.

And the Model 3 and Gen 3 should have almost zero cross-shopping. If Model 3 and Gen 3 are competitors then Tesla is planning to do something very, very wrong.

Depends, if you are shopping for the cheapest Tesla, then yes you are cross shopping a Model 3 RWD and Gen 3 car. What is going to differentiate the Model 3 and Gen 3 other than price will be room.

 

[GhostSkater]

Did we ever get firm confirmation that Tesla is using the dry process on both anode and cathode?

Yes, either on Q1 or Q2 earnings call Drew answered that and confirmed that Texas only ever did DBE on both

 

[bkp_duke]

And one day we will have it. Today is not that day.

Yeah, he can't get it through his thick skull that a 25k car would have demand of 4-6 mil/yr. There are not currently remotely enough battery cells in the world to meet that. So if Tesla released it, they would just have another Cybertruck situation again . . . millions of orders with an unclear product release timeline.

 

[Artful Dodger]

2024 kicks in the excluded entities on components, not minerals. Minerals kicks in 2025.

So Tesla is IRA-eligible in 2024 for US-manufactured batteries made with China-sourced lithium, but not in 2025. Good to know.

I think it's the Assembled-in-China LFP battery packs like Tesla uses for std rge Models 3/Y that become IRA ineligible on Jan 01, 2024, correct?

Cheer!

 

[Krugerrand]

They guided for slightly higher numbers. That doesn't count as "more" either in the context of valuation for a growth company, or accomplishing the mission by selling as many electric vehicles as possible. In my opinion, the next couple of years will show the means to the mission has shifted. Stock price is going to suffer until the new means is realized.

In our next episode we will explain why up is down and down, up.

 

[Usain]

My worry is that they are way behind in this and are still at the designing stage.

Me too.

 

[Usain]

Yes, either on Q1 or Q2 earnings call Drew answered that and confirmed that Texas only ever did DBE on both

I remember that being a little bit vauge. But my memory could be faulty. Right now I don't have time to look it up.

 

[GhostSkater]

I think this might be our first look at the $1000 drive unit, perspective might be screwing it up, but it looks like a transaxle, with a possible planetary gearing for that to be possible, which make sense, at really high volume your cost is mostly material, planetary allows you lower material volume for the same power

https://twitter.com/x/status/1715061908351451223

 

[mongo]

So Tesla is IRA-eligible in 2024 for US-manufactured batteries made with China-sourced lithium, but not in 2025. Good to know.

I think it's the Assembled-in-China LFP battery packs like Tesla uses for std rge Models 3/Y that become IRA ineligible on Jan 01, 2024, correct?

Cheer!

Yeah, something like that. Depends what 'components' get defined as. IRS guidance will be interesting to read.

 

[Tony73]

Yes, either on Q1 or Q2 earnings call Drew answered that and confirmed that Texas only ever did DBE on both

Tesla launched 4680 with a wet cathode. Not sure about the current status

 

[Curt Renz]

It's hard to know sometimes what technical analysts consider 'support levels', but Craig may be referring to the Q3 low Jun 02/Aug 18: (NOT ADVISE!)

View attachment 983531

Cheers to the Longs!

Craig's accompanying chart appears to indicate around $212.

 

[GhostSkater]

Tesla launched 4680 with a wet cathode. Not sure about the current status

Yes, on Kato Rd., from the info we have today it seems that Texas was always DBE from the start

 

[Krugerrand]

So it seems every time Elon expresses his opinion about Tesla becoming the most valuable company on the planet -

WallStreet replies - not so fast Mr Musk, we decide the value of your company and regardless of any financial facts, today we’ve decided your company needs an aggressive haircut.