Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[rallykeeper]

On the subject of Blackrock...

Just a friendly reminder that Blackrock is primarily an index manager of equities (>90% of its equity AUM of ~$5 trillion is in index product). As a result, most of its purchases of Tesla are mechanical purchases driven by inflows into index funds (and index composition changes). For Q2, it got even more offsides with active equity outflows of $9 billion and index equity inflows of $5 billion. All the AUM and flow data is here: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1364742/000095017023032924/blk-ex99_1.htm.

As a simple example, IVV alone has added ~1.2 million shares in the last 4 months to the 23.8 million shares it owned on March 31. (And all of Blackrock's other growing index product similarly added).

Stating it all another way, TSLA purchases by Blackrock are not a bull signal for TSLA -- arguably it's not even a bull signal for the market as a whole since index equity inflows are almost always positive and bull/bear signals can only be inferred by the change in the inflow number.

 

[AudubonB]

Yes: a measly $500 billion in actively managed equity accounts

 

[elasalle]

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon calls Fitch Ratings U.S. downgrade 'ridiculous' but says it 'doesn't really matter'

In the wide-ranging interview, Dimon touched on topics including geopolitics, bank regulation, artificial intelligence and the direction of the economy.

www.cnbc.com

“It doesn’t really matter that much” because it is the market, and not rating agencies, that determine borrowing costs, Dimon told CNBC’s Leslie Picker

someone had to throw a curveball, next up CPI print on Aug 10th ....

 

[EQC_]

I listened to that, and IMHO doesn't really debunk the crux of the matter. Aside EPA range and cold climate, with is noise, I think the issue at stake here is: is the dashboard "pumping" the range even when it's cold/you are on the highway? If it does, the algorithm of the dashboard is incorrect and should be fixed. That's all.

It seemed to me that the Reuters article was complaining about the accuracy of the simple battery percent/miles remaining read-out...so it's just a case of Reuters being misleading and/or Reuters and the complaining users not understanding what that read-out means.

That simple read-out is the equivalent of Tesla's fuel gauge. It tells you what percentage of the battery is left...just like a gas car's fuel gauge gives you a VERY rough idea of what fraction of the tank is still filled with fuel.

Optionally, the user can set that gauge to provide an estimate of the EPA-rated miles are left based on the stored energy and the car's rated combined-cycle efficiency. That mileage read-out does not and is not intended to incorporate the actual driving conditions.

Additionally, we have heard that Tesla sortof runs that gauge down to zero before you actually hit zero -- likely in order to both preserve the battery health and prevent drivers from actually running out of charge. This means there is some "reserve" left and that also confused some folks, resulting in complaints.

Over time, Tesla's OTHER range estimate -- the "% remaining at destination" part of the navigation -- has become increasingly accurate...but no mention of that from Reuters of course.

 

[Electroman]

Tesla’s rivals are launching more and more EV competitors to Musk’s behemoth. The problem is most just aren’t very good — FORTUNE

Japan’s Mazda is pulling its only EV from the U.S. market in favor of combustion engine hybrids, highlighting the huge lead Elon Musk enjoys amid the difficult economics of electric vehicles.

stocks.apple.com

Ha ha ha. The sad state of Tesla killers.

 

[AndrewZ]

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon calls Fitch Ratings U.S. downgrade 'ridiculous' but says it 'doesn't really matter'

In the wide-ranging interview, Dimon touched on topics including geopolitics, bank regulation, artificial intelligence and the direction of the economy.

www.cnbc.com

“It doesn’t really matter that much” because it is the market, and not rating agencies, that determine borrowing costs, Dimon told CNBC’s Leslie Picker

someone had to throw a curveball, next up CPI print on Aug 10th ....

Headline CPI YoY will likely turn in the other direction now that we’re on the opposite side of the 2022 energy price spike where oil and gasoline both peaked in that May-July window and comps will be less favourable going forward.

June 2022 was the absolute peak in energy prices and the most advantageous YoY inflation comparison.


IMO the key at this point is that corporations eat all the current and upcoming labour cost increases, watch their margins compress or offset it with savings elsewhere, and not respond with more price increases that will feed further into those inflation metrics — goods inflation needs to stay down.

 

[cliff harris]

Which do you believe affects a rising stock price more,

"confidence in a lot more money being earned"
or,
a double-shot of Hope-ium? ​

It always seemed to me that more buying demand for the stock than selling of it (for whatever reason) is the thing that causes the price to go up.

Some of those people might actually be confident in making money as you have indicated.
Some might be a little scared of losing and take the chance anyway.
Some buys might be actions dictated by an algorithm, while others might just be shorts covering.
Some might even be because some exciting things are happening.

There may be one or two more possibilities (or, in fact, an infinite number), but this list is long enough to demonstrate the myriad parts of a chaotic system that is affecting the stock price.

I can see how someone only interested in the "nearish future" would like to believe what you posted when they place their bet, but it is hardly THE only thing that drives the SP up.

Something it took me ages to really internalize regarding stock prices:
The stock price is the current value required to clear market transactions for those traders who wish to transact at this time.
That doesn't represent everyone, nor is an extrapolated 'market cap' that useful. Example:

• 1% of Tesla's shareholders could be news-addicted day traders, who buy and sell constantly depending on their mood.
• 99% could be HODL firm believers who will not ever consider selling a single share below $1,000.

The 'stock price' can fluctuate like crazy depending on the endorphin levels of that 1% from one day to the next, but it has zero impact on the conviction of the 99%. However... If you enter this market and want to buy MORE than 1% of the stock, then the price could rise astronomically. You suddenly need to engage with the HODLers.

Obviously random numbers, but you get the point. It dramatically changes how you view the current and future stock price if you switch to thinking this way. From my POV Teslas stock is between $300-3,000 because thats the only price range at which I'd sell any.

 

[Max Plaid]

I disagree with that video somewhat. While I do feel licensing FSD to an OEM is certainly a boon for the company financials, I don't think Wall Street will give TSLA any props for it until the licensing revenues make their way to an earnings report. My gut feeling is the stock wouldn't react much until the money is reported and a tangible adder to the bottom line.

And how did that turn out with the multiple NACS adoption announcements?

 

[GhostSkater]

Awesome to see

Sincerely someone that was planning on buying a original high mileage Hyundai Ioniq but has been getting cold feet due to the mess which is CCS charging in NA and would have to buy a high mileage ICE instead

https://twitter.com/x/status/1686526868105699328

 

[Words of HABIT]

Something it took me ages to really internalize regarding stock prices:
The stock price is the current value required to clear market transactions for those traders who wish to transact at this time.
That doesn't represent everyone, nor is an extrapolated 'market cap' that useful. Example:

• 1% of Tesla's shareholders could be news-addicted day traders, who buy and sell constantly depending on their mood.
• 99% could be HODL firm believers who will not ever consider selling a single share below $1,000.

The 'stock price' can fluctuate like crazy depending on the endorphin levels of that 1% from one day to the next, but it has zero impact on the conviction of the 99%. However... If you enter this market and want to buy MORE than 1% of the stock, then the price could rise astronomically. You suddenly need to engage with the HODLers.

Obviously random numbers, but you get the point. It dramatically changes how you view the current and future stock price if you switch to thinking this way. From my POV Teslas stock is between $300-3,000 because thats the only price range at which I'd sell any.

Interesting. My random numbers of those who own TSLA are 50% traders (short term < 2 years) and 50% investors (long term > 2 years). Also, its not all or nothing, as there are some traders that will hold a portion longer, and some investors that will sell a portion sooner. My random thinking tells me 50% of TSLA sales are due to one's belief, or lack of belief, in Tesla executing their products/plans, and 50% of TSLA sales are due to macro events not directly related to Tesla. Unfortunately, Main Street Market has much influence how Tesla is perceived. The same can be said for macro events. Thank goodness for posters here on TMC, otherwise my Tesla thesis would be lost.

 

[Snerruc]

Well, Florida allowed self driving about 3 years or so ago. All Tesla has to do is certify the car will obey all applicable laws and assume responsibility for the cars actions. Government is way ahead of the car companies . Tesla could file the paperwork tomorrow, or last year.

I drove about 125 miles yesterday basically from the San Fernando valley to Laguna beach and back and the FSD was simply amazing. Had one small issues but when you look at the highway performance, FSD is ready for prime time! Much safer than humans, most of which are texting and staring at their phones while on the highway. I do think that a solid version of FSD for city driving is much closer than we think. Apparently Elon is on FSD 12 alpha, and is raving about it.

The government is simply not ready to deal with trying to regulate/approve thus technology. Like many other instances with tech, they will be playing catch up. That to me is the real roadblock we will have before FSD is really ready and I’m afraid that will not go as fast as Tesla/Elon would like.

Just my $.02

 

[M|S|M MYP]

From my POV Teslas stock is between $300-3,000 because thats the only price range at which I'd sell any.

What a

/s

 

[unk45]

Tesla has never had motor disconnect in any of their autos, only the Semi. Instead, in the early cars they used induction motors both front and rear, which, when unpowered, have essentially no cogging losses like PMAC motors do. But PMAC (permanent magnet) motors are generally much more efficient, and later Teslas installed PMAC motors, though I believe (not certain) that front motors remained induction in most cases so they could depower them for cruise conditions without drag. The Semi, which uses all PMAC motors, has clutched motors that can be disconnected for cruise, when using a minimal motor count is more efficient. The Semi clutch system, like the Rivian, is a mechanical interlock, not a friction clutch, and both rely on sophisticated control algorithms to sync the mechanical engagement, something easy to do when you're working with e-motors and not an ICE powerplant. I would not be surprised to see a mechanical clutch on some of the motors of the CyberTruck, and on future Teslas using multiple PMAC motors -- it really is the most efficient system when you want lots of power for acceleration and lots of efficiency for cruise. While Tesla latest permanent magnet motors do have some reluctance motor effects (this is something most permanent magnet auto motors have been trending toward, all the way back to the BMW i3), they still have cogging losses when being towed along unpowered but rotating.

Hence my use of the word 'effectively'.

 

[growler23]

Did anyone else in the States just have their local news station cover a 'national story' about a guy in the awful Phoenix heat getting trapped in his Tesla?
A full minute of how scary these electric cars are, then a tiny blurb on the way out about how owners should read the manual to find any emergency releases that they might have.
Apparently the guy didn't get hurt. He got out using the app to open his passenger door? And later found out about the manual latch.
I expect another dip in the stock price now.

 

[ggies07]

Hahaha. Oh Elon....

TikTok · Ai Films

1070 likes, 87 comments. “Elon unveils the newest Tesla 😳”

www.tiktok.com

 

[MC3OZ]

Indeed, I estimate that at a 50% duty cycle, each of those 12-unit Megacharger sites will draw an average of ~100MWh of electricity per day. Then there are seasonal variations in both supply (-100% to +30%) and demand (holiday rush for logistics could also be +100% as solar output is at it's lowest)

The numbers I have seen are, 4 to 6 acres of land per MW, around 5 MW per day from a 1 MW far in a good location.
So perhaps a 5 MW solar array on 20 acres can produce up to 25 MW per day in summer or 25% of demand. 3 MW per day in winter, or 15% of demand,

Also looking at the amount of capital per site, 5 MW of solar is the maximum I expect after paying for the Megapacks.

Elon did say "running on sunshine" and $0.07 per kWh in the original Semi reveal. But IMO they would need at least 50 MW of solar and 200 acres of land to (mostly) do that.

 

[dhanson865]

The 'stock price' can fluctuate like crazy depending on the endorphin levels of that 1% from one day to the next, but it has zero impact on the conviction of the 99%. However... If you enter this market and want to buy MORE than 1% of the stock, then the price could rise astronomically. You suddenly need to engage with the HODLers.

Obviously random numbers, but you get the point. It dramatically changes how you view the current and future stock price if you switch to thinking this way. From my POV Teslas stock is between $300-3,000 because thats the only price range at which I'd sell any.

So The Stephenson IndicatorTM won't hit $3000 until 2041 (it just hit $500 last week).

But Teslaboomermama has it hitting $3,000 before 2030 (she has it at $11,000 in 2033 so that should have it above $3,000 in a few years).

Depending on how tired I get of dealing with my boss I may start selling shares in 2025 or 2026 to retire early (hoping for $700-$1000 in that time frame). No real minimum price (I'll sell as few shares as I can as long as the stock is low) watching for an all time high or near that.

Surly we can get back above the line by then, if not I may continue working or I might take a leap of faith and just sell my non Tesla stock looking for TSLA to go up in the year or two after I jump.

 

[Todd Burch]

Did anyone else in the States just have their local news station cover a 'national story' about a guy in the awful Phoenix heat getting trapped in his Tesla?
A full minute of how scary these electric cars are, then a tiny blurb on the way out about how owners should read the manual to find any emergency releases that they might have.
Apparently the guy didn't get hurt. He got out using the app to open his passenger door? And later found out about the manual latch.
I expect another dip in the stock price now.

You expect a dip in the stock price because some moron in Phoenix is next-level stupid? Naw, I don't think so. Why was it even on the news? Is he next-level crybaby too?

 

[Words of HABIT]

So The Stephenson IndicatorTM won't hit $3000 until 2041 (it just hit $500 last week).

But Teslaboomermama has it hitting $3,000 before 2030 (she has it at $11,000 in 2033 so that should have it above $3,000 in a few years).

Depending on how tired I get of dealing with my boss I may start selling shares in 2025 or 2026 to retire early (hoping for $700-$1000 in that time frame). No real minimum price (I'll sell as few shares as I can as long as the stock is low) watching for an all time high or near that.

Surly we can get back above the line by then, if not I may continue working or I might take a leap of faith and just sell my non Tesla stock looking for TSLA to go up in the year or two after I jump.

View attachment 961795

We had two years of free, easy money. TSLA ain't never going back to the Stephenson line. Stephenson needs a new line. No worries. TSLA will still get to ATH, just will take a little bit longer.

 

[EVWatcher]

Local news station

I’m very curious what percent of tesla investors are even aware there is such a thing as a local news station let along has watched it in the last 15 years. I’m not certain I have ever in my 38 years of being alive deliberately watched local news.

I don’t think a story broadcast to every local news station in the country will effect teslas stock, even if they all played the story back to back for 24 hours.