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  1. E

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Pre-emptive note: I'm not trying to debate, but just to provide some food for thought. Also, I don't know the full spectrum of what is available for other OEMs. That being said, FSD has a few obvious advantages: Tesla puts the hardware, with at least the specific safety features, on all of...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I like your wording :). Fully agree that just about all of Elon's projections are aspirational...and his choice of words usually implies it. Of course, the statements are misinterpretted, and those misinterpretted meanings get stuffed into headlines as absolute statements that didn't actually...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The world would likely be going much slower...or even backwards! Would GM have come out with more small-batch electric cars at a high price every few years, and then taken them back to crush them to prove it didn't work? What other manufacturers would have stepped in with EV's, and what would...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Wait...your definition of "intervene" is "turn the wheel or slam the brakes in real time to prevent an accident" ? Is there any reason to believe that is Elon or Tesla's meaning for the word? For your definition, I would think a much more specific term would be justified --- something like...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Based on assorted headlines and "expert" analysts, YES! ;) With Tesla, everything is a concern! Production too slow? Problem! Analyst doesn't like the weird looking truck? Everybody else must hate it too -- Demand Problem! When demand for Tesla cars shot up? Wait times are too long --...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Agreed. Part of the problem is that his tweet is read and interpretted by a wide range of people, and the nuance/details he may think are implied are probably going to be ignored or missed. For example, in Elon's line: "We are starting to get to the point where, once known bugs are fixed, it...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Quoting the below comments, as they seem to have been missed and need repeating. In short: 1) All Elon did was swap delivery dates for NVidia hardware between two companies. Obviously, not theft. The chips were getting made and paid for one way or another...if one company was ready for...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    From Elon's tweet: "My current best guess for Nvidia purchases by Tesla are $3B to $4B this year." So, $4B sounds like another absolute, binding "promise" for critics to latch onto...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    There are many reasons why things weren't directly comparable, and that was part of my point and why I said that the product, the company's goals, and capabilities matter IN ADDITION to things like "first mover advantage." Of course the Nissan Leaf was a less capable product, it was also less...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    On the other hand: The incumbant manufacturer Nissan's Leaf arrived on the market about a year and a half before the Model S. The incumbant manufacturer Chevy's Bolt beat the Model 3 to market by about 6 months. Speculating: Rivian and Ford both beat the Cybertruck to market...but: I think...
  11. E

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I have a vague memory of somebody tweeting or saying that Elon mostly tweets on the toilet and, "official communication channel" or not, his tweets should be viewed as such. I also have a vague memory of Elon agreeing with that. ....some quick googling confirms, November 21, 2021: "At least...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I mean...it would be nice if certain groups actually read his post, and DID take it at face value. I'd assume that, as Elon's post is written, folks like the ultra-conservative trump lovers you mentioned would probably read it with their own bias in place, miss the parts about the...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Sorry if the formatting gets mangled, but I thought it was worth copy-pasting the tweet from The Limiting Factor for easy reading directly on the forum: ---Begin Copy-Paste--- Tesla appears to be switching from Saueressing to PNT for their dry electrode manufacturing equipment From what I can...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Agreed 👍. I was viewing the buyback as one tool in the toolbox, not as the sole means to get him from 13% to 25%. So, if other events get Elon closer to 25% in the coming years, then perhaps a buyback could be used as one more bump to get him the final step over the threshold, if needed.
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Super optimistic dream: Twitter / X becomes huge...$200 billion or whatever Elon predicted. Goes public, Elon sells big chunk, and puts it back into Tesla. 😁
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Oh wait...really? My Apologies if I'm dumb. Simple numbers for easy math: Let's say Elon holds 100 shares, and there are 500 shares total available. I was thinking that means Elon has 20% ownership and, important to him, 20% of the votes. If Tesla buys back 100 shares, now Elon has 100...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    So, my entire post was about the lack of a "threat" or "blackmail" from Elon, despite the way the media keeps presenting it. With regard to your question -- Elon made an off-hand mention of one way to increase his percent ownership, if needed, in the far future. I noted that, and provided a...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    While the headlines would love for you to believe that there is some "threat" or "blackmail" and that he's going to "take his ball and go home" (you know, because they also want you to believe he is childish), reading and thinking about Elon's actual words paints a different picture. Elon's...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    You'll notice the cars started around 70-72% of epa range. I haven't read in detail, but I assume they are using their own driving cycle (not the EPA cycle) to come up with a range figure...and their cycle happens to be less efficient (I assume more high speed driving etc. than EPA tests). So...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    As an American, I don't think I have ever voted in any other election where I felt both sides provided full, complete, honest info and had my best interest in mind. This goes for voting for candidates as well as voting for assorted propositions, etc. In the case of the original shareholder...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    To be fair, huge chunks of the population choose a car based on some desire for some sort of attention, or for what they believe that vehicle will do for their image or the way people perceive them. Simultaneously, many peole probably don't even realize it because they've justified the purchase...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Just a quick note/request: I generally find your posts thoughtful and well-written...until I get to where you frequently use the term "cyberturd." That's when I throw up in my mouth a little and can't focus on the rest of your thoughts. It reminds me of the wierdos in comment sections that...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    It is indeed a balancing act. I'm not disagreeing...just noting another facet to consider: Imagine what the demand would be if Tesla was currently selling a dual motor Cybertruck for $50K, or even $60K. Now bump that demand up even more because the tax credit would also be available to pull...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Yeah, after I read your and Knightshade's posts I edited my comments about nVidiA. I get the importance of nVidia, I just suspect many people...especially the type to answer surveys...might not really be aware of the nVidia products in detail. But, anybody paying attention to current events...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I'd be a little more general, and suggest much of the ranking is based on news/blog/editorial coverage. *Edited this part after seeing a couple posts above* For nVidia, I can imagine that many folks who would answer a brand ranking survey probably don't know much about them. Even many folks...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I don't know the details of the case, and I am far too dumb to understand the implications...but isn't Xpeng the company that may have had access to stolen autopilot code from a nefarious engineer that left Tesla? Lawsuit/court case started back in 2019 on that... Thoughts about that definitely...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    You seem to have ignored willow_hiller's actual intent, and then focused on a later part of Tesla's statement...and then, even in that jump, you seem to have misread or purposely ignored key details to make a new, mistaken, anti-Tesla point. I believe willow_hiller was pointing you toward...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    You may see a "clickbait claim here and elsehwere" that it is safer than human drivers. I still see many editorial articles where they claim Autopilot and FSD are constantly running into pedestrians and fire trucks and is a danger to everybody on the road. Most of the FSD-related articles I see...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    It is fair to be skeptical. We all know that no data is perfect, and presentation can always be bent to influence perception. However, complete falsehood is not fair. https://www.tesla.com/VehicleSafetyReport "We also receive a crash alert anytime a crash is reported to us from the fleet...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Starlink cell service definitely wouldn't make sense as the car's main means of communication, and probably would never be needed in the city. But: having it as an option, using existing hardware, could be useful for emergency and roadside-assistance in many cases. On my commute (a couple...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Two key points: 1) The Tesla Semi still has a driver's seat and a full suite of controls. 2) My understanding is that while being a trucker was once a very good option for making a decent living, over the years the conditions have become worse and the pay has not kept up with inflation. I would...
  32. E

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    What Elon has actually said is simple and clear....see the above notes on Optimus from the recent Conference Call. To summarize, Elon believes:: Optimus (sub-prime) as currently being developed: fine and not scary for humans, and should be just as successful (though perhpas developed slower)...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Since your response is a few tweets without your own explanation/commentary, I'll assume you do view Elon as making a threat. To that I'll point out two things: Elon's words, from the tweet you quoted, were: "I am uncomfortable growing Tesla to be a leader in AI & robotics without having ~25%...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    It is indeed hard to understand anything when key details are left out and ignored. The main answers to most of those points are: life is complicated in general, and many of the complications are left out of the narrative presented above, likely causing the confusion and need to question. For...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I appreciate that DarkandStormy put the word "threat" in quotes here... By defining it as a threat, Electrek is making the same logical mistake that a poster here elegantly pointed out last week. Something like: " 'If A, then B' is not the same as 'If NOT A, then NOT B.' " Sad that so many in...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I dont understand what additional planning, messaging, and work Tesla realistically could have done. What Tesla did: 1) tell any and all suppliers: we will ramp up and buy from you any and all qualified cells you can produce. Please produce more! 2) design and build the Model 3 and Y to work...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I am not a lawyer, and only looked at this one article...but my read is: The plaintiff declared as part of the complaint something like: "I was expecting Level 4 or 5 capabilities, but my car only has the hardware needed for Level 2, because Level 4 and 5 require LIDAR and Tesla doesn't have...
  38. E

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Honestly, I'd probably balk at $300 too... but with my personal location relative to airports, I'd probably be debating driving manually versus paying for a hypothetical temporary FSD overnight pass. There's lots of gray areas and uncertainties, and everybody does different calculations. Many...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    100% agree that integrating with another OEM would take years. We know the development cycle for cars. Even if some other OEM committed TODAY to add FSD to 100% of ONE of their models, it would take years before they could design and manufacture that car with all the needed items integrated: 8+...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    This is a big hypothetical and a long way off...but I imagine the occasional ~400 mile trip, something like the LA area to the San Francisco area. For that, especially for a small family traveling, and especially overnight while they sleep, $300 would be worth it for even just one trip. Very...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Interestingly, the announced/revealed price for a given range at the time the Cybertruck was announced was actually VERY close to the Model Y prices for similar range at the same time. At least at that point, somebody at Tesla thought it was a reasonable enough possibility that Tesla could make...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    By "forest," are we still talking about a monocrop of trees that were planted/farmed with the intent of cutting down to make cardboard? I do not mean this as any slight against you...but I remember all the articles decrying Tesla's original Berlin Gigafactory being built in a "forest"...and so...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I agree that $100K is too high for big sales numbers (at least with the state of things currently in the US...nobody knows what economic boom times or huge inflation may be around the corner ;) ). Tied to that $40K number, I'll just add that the crushing reality of inflation has hit me recently...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I think we already saw the article about Cybertruck sales outpacing the Rivian truck (R1T) in March of this year. https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-cybertruck-overtakes-rivian-r1t-ev-pickup-data/ I don't think it will be long before we see a story that the Cybertruck is outselling all the other...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I'd suggest removing the assumed emotion from the story. Many people tend to paint a picture that includes Elon being "angry" and throwing a "tantrum," etc. I don't think I've ever seen any first hand sources claiming this sort of thing, and it only sounds plausible because these sorts of...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    - (Edit: Ninja'd by Knightshade on this point) Vague memory and some quick googling: The WARN Act requires 60 days notice for certain layoffs. Many companies seem to handle this in a way that looks more like immediate dismissal followed by 60 days of pay. So, Tesla may of course have some...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I didn't make this connection between the proposed move to Texas and the (apparent) possibility of Elon gaining more voting power without simply owning more standard shares. Quoting from Elon's tweet...bolding and big text mine: "If I have 25%, it means I am influential, but can be overridden...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Similarly perplexing that apparently many people simultaneously believe Elon is doing more harm than good at Tesla, but also that it would do major harm to the company if he departed.
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Oh man...mainly just a joke, and NOT an argument or justification. I should have made the winky face bigger.... That brought up a question of logistics in my head, especially with regard to the "best" way to ramp production. One option is to ramp production "continuously" by striving to reach...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Haha...two points of discrepancy: 1) The debate is *supposed to be* about whether Elon's management beginning in 2018 and running until he completed the assorted milestones in the compensation package is worth the payout. Since that last milestone was achieved, and no new package was put in...