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  1. cliff harris

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I don't think anyone should do a spec compare of the semi with any competitors without discussing FSD. For a long time it was assumed that the first place society would see driverless vehicles would be big trucks. They go mostly on highways, not in traffic, on very predictable routes. Not only...
  2. cliff harris

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    This is interesting: 100m Tesla vehicles HAS to be confirmation of a model 2, alongside CT,RT,3,X,S,Y,Semi. Sure, Elon is looking ahead, but even 10 years ahead, to get 100m you need 10m production a year right? I'm surprised there is not more raising of eyebrows about this. I think this is...
  3. cliff harris

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    There are now so many posters like this, who do nothing but post negative-spun FUD, that its ridiculous. Do they think they are moving the stock to profit from shorting? I just dont get why people spend SO MUCH TIME on an investment forum dedicated to a company they hate so much. Maybe try...
  4. cliff harris

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    URGENT notice to UK investors with accounts at Hargreaves Lansdowne. You CAN vote: At the very least you can message HL and tell them that they are flat out lying. I have done so in no uncertain terms.
  5. cliff harris

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    GM had first mover advantage with the EV1. Remind me how that worked out for them?
  6. cliff harris

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Based on what? This sounds exactly like business insiders silly stories claiming the shanghai factory was just mud and would never get built. As someone who drove his shanghai built model Y only this morning, I can add a data point that the factory definitely got built and *checks notes* made...
  7. cliff harris

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    This is another reason why the Tesla semi is so exciting. It will be the first Tesla vehicle aimed squarely at corporate customers. Spacex gets pretty much everyone's business, because when rocket A launches at $80million and rocket B launches at $8million, you have to be insane, corrupt, or the...
  8. cliff harris

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I think the reason you, and many people do not choose the premium connectivity is because psychologically, most people dislike ongoing monthly payments. I just gave in and paid the extra to avoid amazon prime adverts, and it was stupid that I had not done so before... I even bought FSD, here in...
  9. cliff harris

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I think premium connectivity is a no brainer. Its massively, massively worth it. Spotify is great, live traffic updates are a nice bonus, and decent connection for streaming netflix if I'm at a supercharger is the cherry on the icing on the cake. $10 a month. So $120 a year. $1,200 if you keep...
  10. cliff harris

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    This thread is rapidly degenerating into just a bunch of 'investors' who seem focused on ranting about the CEO's politics. There are other places to do this, in fact the entire internet seems to be taken over by people who spend their every waking moment ranting about how much they hat Elon's...
  11. cliff harris

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Tesla might claim no Juniper this year, but they also went to great lengths to pretend nothing was happening to the model 3, and Elon even said 'highland' was not even a term he recognized, right up until they announced them, and pre-recorded review videos appeared on youtube. I would not be...
  12. cliff harris

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Mach Es and Jaguars? Alfa Romeos? How many combined? is it a million? is it even 100,000? Heck, is it even 10,000 cars? Its a trivial effort in comparison to Teslas moat of video data. And I really think the 'Tesla having trouble launching autopilot on CT' comment may not age well. There is no...
  13. cliff harris

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I don't believe this to be entirely true. Its not like FSD is a single neural network, but many, in layers. Some of those layers are doing very generic stuff, such as stop-light and road-sign recognition, basically making sense of what all the objects are that the car can see. The very 'end'...
  14. cliff harris

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I am not ignoring you. Wayve is a TINY company (based in London) compared to Tesla. They are testing their systems on Ocado delivery trucks. Whoopdy-do. I'm sure there are millions of those (there are not). If chatgpt has any lesson whatsoever, its the AI improves dramatically with scale of...
  15. cliff harris

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I really dont think these two things are the same. Tesla has actual competition for EVs, mostly from BYD and other Chinese companies, but also MG and Nissan, even VW to some extent. The reason is that people have wildly different tastes and needs for cars, and some people HATE the cybertruck and...
  16. cliff harris

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    People are definitely getting confused. X.AI is doing... we dont know what yet. But its using conventional AI hardware AFAIK, probably from nvidia. Twitter did grok, again, probably just a stack of nvidia hardware Tesla designed Dojo, and will use it for FSD training. These are all different...
  17. cliff harris

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Yup the average speed thing is absolute genius, an excellent addition. I was quite slow to notice brake and indicator lights showing up on all the cars. In general, this was a really nice update. I'm hoping the next one finally gets us in the UK some usability from FSD ownership. Even autopark...
  18. cliff harris

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I haven't seen this story mentioned here before? https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Supply-Chain/Tesla-pushes-suppliers-to-produce-parts-outside-of-China-and-Taiwan Basically Tesla hedging its bets and telling its component manufacturers formally to work on providing a supply chain that is...
  19. cliff harris

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Elon has 184.7 million followers on twitter. I thought it was absolutely, stunning, clearly, hugely obvious that this makes him more vocal a CEO than any other fortune 500 CEO, but feel free to show me the social media profiles of more high profile ones.
  20. cliff harris

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Most CEOs keep a very very low profile politically, and also most CEOs have nowhere near the wealth of Elon. The combination of his political stance and being so wealthy was like catnip to an activist judge. Most fortune 500 companies have very boring CEOs who never need to care about the...
  21. cliff harris

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Rivian are in way, way worse a position than Tesla ever was, and Tesla didn't have to compete with any other EV company:
  22. cliff harris

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Rivian are not serious contenders. Sure, they make some great vehicles that the owners really like...but given they sell every single one at a catastrophic eye-watering loss, they SHOULD really like them. At some point soon, Rivian shareholders will get sick of the losses, and force management...
  23. cliff harris

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Nvidia basically designs (does not manufacture) cutting edge computer chips. Tesla builds cars, and even many of the components like seats. There is NO comparison. It would be insane for nvidia not to pay more for chip designers than Tesla pays people to assemble car seats.
  24. cliff harris

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    NVDA is my second largest investment after TSLA. I bought a long time ago and am about 1,000% up on average. I have no complaints. BUT NVDA don't make anything. They are like Apple, they design amazing products that they get built somewhere else. There is potential existential risk if China...
  25. cliff harris

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Its kinda cool that 'there is a disengagement every 200 miles' is seen as a criticism right now. Thats...pretty impressive. As I've said before, you dont need actual robotaxi reliability to see a HUGE boost to the company. Who in the world would use any other car than a tesla for working as an...
  26. cliff harris

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I think its perfectly fair to love TSLA (I do!) and admire and support Elon (I do!) but still think its ridiculous how many companies he is apparently running. Twitter was definitely a step too far. I love that he changed what he did there, but I'd be happier if he could both sell his twitter...
  27. cliff harris

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    TBH its probably extremely unlikely. The use case for starlink is rural. They just cannot support the population density in a city, certainly not as well as ground based cell towers and wired internet can. And the use case for robotaxi is overwhelmingly urban.
  28. cliff harris

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    LOL. It turns out I have 19,000 shares, not 10k. Also sent an angry letter about it :D.
  29. cliff harris

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I will pester hargreaves Lansdowne today too, sod it. I have 10k shares and Its insane I cannot vote...
  30. cliff harris

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Is it? These are not model Ys, they will be the priciest vehicle product Tesla makes. The market for semis is also very conservative and cautious. I think this shows quite a bit of confidence. I also suspect that this will end up being US only, with a second plant built in China or Europe once...
  31. cliff harris

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I think people get a bit too obsessed with the 20 million cars a year goal. I'm an investor, not a car collector. If the best way for Tesla to make a ton of cash is to make 2 million robotaxis, or 1 million taxis and 5 million bots, then lets do that. I'm sure BYD will keep making EVs. We all...
  32. cliff harris

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    And your verified independent source for this would be?
  33. cliff harris

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I dont think you can extrapolate from the US as to how global politics will respond to climate change. I'm in the UK, which is a climate-change denying hellscape compared to much of Europe, and we are tons better than the US. Take a look at China's rollout of high speed rail, and its amazing...
  34. cliff harris

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Given the catastrophic impact of carbon emissions from flying, and no immediate prospect of pollution-free flights any time soon, as climate change inevitably gets worse, I suspect many governments will go further in financially encouraging people not to fly, especially if it becomes common for...
  35. cliff harris

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    TBH none of us know, but I would guess that before they make FSD live on a new model like the CT, they will, at the very least, run FSD in shadow mode on a bunch of CTs for quite a while. They may know everything they need to know in order to enable it, but nothing will keep the safety experts...
  36. cliff harris

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    IMHO this is underappreciated. Any FSD wannabe is going to initially be very conservative, and at the MOST might consider a placement for 100,000 FSD-capable in-car units. Thats just laughably low by Tesla standards, who are probably using almost identical hardware in the 3 and Y, and to some...
  37. cliff harris

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    FWIW There are twitter rumours showing a new center console for an updated model Y. Probably nonsense, but its not like its hard to imagine we are due a small model Y update. I wouldn't expect it to be a major sales driver, more of a 'keep up with highland' thing, but nevertheless it would be...
  38. cliff harris

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    If you have been holding TSLA for a long time (about 9 years for me I think), and obsessively follow Elon, its actually really clear and simple. He says exactly what he thinks and what he is planning to do, and then he does it. Its often late, and people spend a huge amount of time reading...
  39. cliff harris

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Unless you have a million connected vehicles with identical camera placements in the hands of people driving them every day, and the infrastructure to collect, sort, sift and train on that data, then no, you do not have the same capability for training AI based self-driving as Tesla. I am happy...
  40. cliff harris

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The trouble with fighting about rival self driving systems using real time video is that its not a single drive that is the problem. I'm sure its perfectly possible to do a 90 minute Mercedes drive that is flawless. That would make for a great stock-pump video. The problem is, if you only have a...
  41. cliff harris

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Mercedes system only works on certain roads. Thats not self-driving, thats 'driving on certain roads'. For all practical purposes they may as well just given free train tickets to mercedes buyers who live near specific roads. If people are going to let mercedes get away with claiming they sell...
  42. cliff harris

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I think when people say 'people aren't buying EVs', this is in large part driven by statements from the likes of Ford about their EV pickup sales in the US. Its true that they are scaling those back, and despite repeated claims to be scaling, Rivian aren't producing huge numbers of their pickup...
  43. cliff harris

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Yup thats exactly what I said isn't it. Amazing analysis.
  44. cliff harris

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    People might follow Elon, but that doesnt mean they are obsessively following every press release by Tesla. If Tesla introduce a new color for the model Y, or a new trim, or there is a new report about the efficiency of cybertruck, Elon can tweet and ensure everyone following him hears about it...
  45. cliff harris

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    One of the most followed people on the most famous and widely quoted social media sites on earth. A HUGE part of PR is reach. People pay a LOT for reach. Average social media cost per thousand impressions is $6. This recent post by elon (only yesterday) has so far got 49.5million views. It will...
  46. cliff harris

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I don't get it. You aren't an investor, OR a shortseller. Why spend so much time here? I think GOOG and AAPL are both really bad investments, and if someone asks me I'll mention it. I have even tweeted it a few times. But I wouldn't sign up for an account on an apple or google website to tell...
  47. cliff harris

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    BTW another way to evaluate elon's focus: Elon is 100% focused on the next stupid hard challenge. Its what he thinks about, and tweets about. That doesn't mean previous beaten challenges don't continue to trundle along. For example he tweets WAY more about starship than falcon 9, because...
  48. cliff harris

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Ha, don't get me wrong I massively feel your pain. I also have a no USS 2022 model Y with FSD, and no autopark, and it annoys the hell out of me :D. I'm just speaking more as an investor than owner there.
  49. cliff harris

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Long before any of us have the option of a robotaxi, the effect of really-really-really good FSD, even if technically you have to still be the driver is going to noticeable. Take a look at the advertising budgets of major car companies, and then look at the ads. Notice anything? They say NOTHING...
  50. cliff harris

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    As an investor since at least 2015, I have to agree with the posts on trading vs investing. I've seen enough awesome tesla news that fails to move the stock AND enough random inconsequential nonsense that catapults it into the skies...to know that I cannot predict the monthly moves of the SP. I...