Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[The Accountant]

What will be Tesla Guidance for 2022?

My gut tells me that Tesla will guide to 50% growth in deliveries for 2022. However that would only be about 1,380,000 deliveries.
Below I have listed my Bear, Base and Bull numbers for 2022 along with what Wall Street, Troy and G. Black estimate.
Gary recently tweeted that when meeting with Tesla mgmt, they indicated 1.5m for 2022.

Tesla will provide 2022 guidance during the Q4 Earnings Call in late January. If they guide to 1.5m, the stock will pop in my opinion. If they guide to 50% growth (1.38m), then I think the stock does nothing even with Wall Street currently at 1.287m

Troy has an unusually low number for Shanghai. It's a bit stale and I assume he will take that number up in his next 2022 estimate.

 

[stealthyc]

What will be Tesla Guidance for 2022?

My gut tells me that Tesla will guide to 50% growth in deliveries for 2022.

I place that likelihood at about 99%. I expect them to say what they always say... i.e. 50% for upcoming years, sometimes exceeding.

 

[Jack6591]

Like you're 5? Okay. Wall St. is a schoolyard bully. Elon is a nerdy kid with glasses who gets good grades in math and science. Wall St. can't speel math and science. Wall St. decided years ago to 'play-the-man' by attacking Elon in the media (the more unfair the better). This 33.3% drop from 1240 to 930 was necessary for Wall St. to feel good about themselves. The playground supervisors are off in a corner, smoking and chatting, because "it's best to let the kids work this out".

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HTH.

Might it be the endowment effect. Tesla is on the precipice of disrupting the fossil fuel and automotive industries. People and organizations across the world are vested in these industries; they are fighting for their lives.

Endowment Effect: Definition, What Causes It, and Example

The endowment effect refers to an emotional bias that causes individuals to value an owned object higher, often irrationally, than its market value.

www.investopedia.com

 

[tivoboy]

The UK won't get a Gigafactory ever. I'd bet 1 x TSLA on it.

I would probably bet 1x Tesla M3 on it!

 

[Drumheller]

83k cybertrucks? Someone's been reading this thread.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Today is looking like the mirror image of yesterday as of 10:53. If Elon's shares were being sold today, it would likely have been evident by now. I think we see a combination of hedgie covering and FOMO slowly take us to a $968 close.

I'm guessing tomorrow is an Elon selling day and we drop back down below $940. If we can hold this range a little longer(thru next week) LEAP pricing might come down a bit and it'll make sense to rage convert shares to LEAPs & YOLOs.

 

[tivoboy]

Like you're 5? Okay. Wall St. is a schoolyard bully. Elon is a nerdy kid with glasses who gets good grades in math and science. Wall St. can't speel math and science. Wall St. decided years ago to 'play-the-man' by attacking Elon in the media (the more unfair the better). This 33.3% drop from 1240 to 930 was necessary for Wall St. to feel good about themselves. The playground supervisors are off in a corner, smoking and chatting, because "it's best to let the kids work this out".



HTH.

Did you maybe mean 23% or is there some other funky math here?

 

[henchman24]

What material events make Friday more special then December 31st. Not saying your wrong. I just dont understand how we could know that Friday is the last day.

Within two weeks of the end of the year and deliveries being potentially announced.

 

[Krugerrand]

If Tesla doesn't throw some cash at the Freemont shooting victim's family I'll be disappointed. Tesla needs proactive PR.

Here’s what’s more likely to happen; the victim’s family will sue Tesla since the perp doesn’t likely have much money.

 

[elasalle]

sorry if already shared.

Tesla Has a Considerable Lead Over the Competition, Says Deutsche Bank - TipRanks.com

Recently, Deutsche Bank held its DB AutoTech Conference, which included talks with Tesla’s (TSLA) head of Investor Relations. Following the 2-day meetings, firm ana...

www.tipranks.com

In 3Q18, its average cost per vehicle stood at $54,000 and 3 years later in 3Q21 this dropped to $36,000 per vehicle, amounting to a COGS reduction of $18,000 over the period. Hardly any of this drop has been due to lower cost of battery cells with the Price/Kwh “broadly stable” during this time.

 

[SmokyPeat]

Just grabbed another June '23 1200c. Despite the current noise in the market, I'm convinced 2022 will be an extraordinary year for Tesla.

 

[Dangerous Fish]

Just grabbed another June '23 1200c. Despite the current noise in the market, I'm convinced 2022 will be an extraordinary year for Tesla.

Nah. It'll be a dud year apparently...

After a dazzling 2021, Apple and Tesla stocks are expected to be duds in 2022

A deep dive into the 25 stocks that have contributed more than half of the S&P 500 Index's gain this year brings out fascinating information for investors.

www.marketwatch.com

 

[insaneoctane]

Imagine waiting 40 minutes for your Not-A-Tesla to charge at a Supercharger while in the adjacent charging spot you see 3 different Teslas pull in, charge, then resume their journey.

Marketing.

I get this perspective,I really do.

But, all these slow charging non-Teslas will clog the stalls and interfere with my awesome Tesla charging experience IF they don't add a formerly unnecessary quantity of stalls just for the inefficient non-Teslas...seems like sizing SC stations to make Tesla's not wait while accommodating slow charging competitors is not an efficient use of capital?

 

[thx1139]

Within two weeks of the end of the year and deliveries being potentially announced.

Is that a regulation?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Uh... "could add over 5 billion". Well, that's a whole lot of saying nothing.
5 Billion in revenue with a 60k ASP is 83k trucks. 50k ASP is 100k vehicles. And this is for 2026?
I say 5B is in play only if everyone has already bought one by then and 100k a year is the replacement rate.
Or they are talking quarterly revenue? (Still too low IMO).

Yeah, rediculously low estimate for CT annual sales revenue. If the BBB EV credit is passed with a $90K cap for pickup trucks, that basically sets the market price for all cybertrucks sold, because demand will far outstrip supply.

Further, if we take Tesla at their word that intial production capacity is being sized for 250K/yr then that's $22.5B annual sales from Cybertruck (and likely by 2024 giving time for the production ramp). So yes, even an estimate of $5B per quarter is too low.

Better news? The factory is modular, and with proven demand Tesla could quickly double annual capacity to 500K units by 2025, and double again to 1M by 2026/27 as required.

That article is yet another example of just how disconnected the Financial Media is from the reality of Tesla's plans (and demonstrated capacity) for exponential production growth.

... and they're shorting.

Cheers!

 

[Nocturnal]

Here’s what’s more likely to happen; the victim’s family will sue Tesla since the perp doesn’t likely have much money.

I know which headline I'd prefer to see.

 

[ZsoZso]

I'm surprised Karen thinks the global auto market will grow to 350 million by 2030! My guess is, at most, about half that. Maybe it could reach 350 million by 2033 or so but projecting even a decade in the future is pretty problematic.

You misunderstood. Toyota said 3.5 million electrified vehicles in 2030, most of which are hybrid (PHEV), specifically only 1 million BEV.
Karen thinks, in 2030 nobody will buy PHEV, the market will buy pretty much BEV only, so only count the 1 million Toyota can sell, the rest of their business is junk, so that means the total market 100 million of which 1 million is Toyota sales.

 

[SmokyPeat]

Here’s what’s more likely to happen; the victim’s family will sue Tesla since the perp doesn’t likely have much money.

You're probably not wrong, but I think it's a bit premature to drag the victims family through the mud. They lost a loved one, who was certainly a productive member of the Tesla team. I think some sensitivity is warranted here.

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

Today is looking like the mirror image of yesterday as of 10:53. If Elon's shares were being sold today, it would likely have been evident by now. I think we see a combination of hedgie covering and FOMO slowly take us to a $968 close.

I'm guessing tomorrow is an Elon selling day and we drop back down below $940. If we can hold this range a little longer(thru next week) LEAP pricing might come down a bit and it'll make sense to rage convert shares to LEAPs & YOLOs.

Didn’t you say green by 9:15am yesterday

 

[GOVA]

@The Accountant

I might have missed that, but why # from Berlin = # from Austin? Shouldn't we see a larger # produced from Austin even though it'd be its 1st year?