Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[InTheMiddle]

Elon looking back on the X... I believe other comments at the time talked about the Falcon Wing doors as being much of it:

<scaesare quoting another posting - apologies, I cannot get the formatting correct>
"In retrospect, it would've been a better decision to do fewer things with the first version of Model X and roll out" new features more slowly over time, Musk told investors on a conference call. "I think there was some hubris there with the X."

Despite all that, Musk quickly added that all the Model X's features add up to "the best car ever" — an extremely ambitious vehicle that no other automaker would dare attempt.

"I'm not sure Tesla would make a car like this again," he joked.

So not sure they'd do that again on the compact model... or if they feel they've figured them out enough that they aren't a "new feature"... I suspect more traditional doors.

Setting aside discussion of the in-the-future compact model, it strikes me that the CyberTruck is, in many ways, Tesla doing the same thing they did with the Model X. Many, many new things all at once...arguably, even more so than the Model X. Rather than "not sure Tesla would make a car like this again", it seems they have. Much like with the Model X, I believe we can all agree that there was "some hubris there" with them making the CyberTruck. Also, much like with the Model X, I believe I will get myself one.

 

[AudubonB]

My investment mentor bought not one, but two Roadsters - because of his unwavering financial support for Tesla , Elon offered him one of the fabled Final Five Roadsters, each knowing he would not be able to pass up such an opportunity.
He was an astonishingly handsome man…from the chest up. Somehow, despite the modest fortune he spent at clinics and so forth, he could not lose that lamentable pear-shaped body. He bemoaned to me how hard it was to squeeze himself into his Porsche 911 - I was long safe & sound in Alaska when his adventures with Tesla began, but I can assure you he found the Roadster no less of a challenge of fit for him than had been his Porsche.

He of whom you speak is significantly even more corporeal than was my mentor. I’ll let each surmise how that person’s experience with his Roadster might affect his attitude toward Tesla and, by extension, EVs.

 

[Tony73]

He owned / owns an original roadster

I ‘d pay to see him enter and exit a roadster.

 

[InTheMiddle]

Seems like a good idea for Tesla to go through the entire reservation list and offer Foundation series to everyone, then start over at the top for regular orders.

Certainly hope and expect so. Done properly, this exercise will be an incredible opportunity for price discovery, and perhaps is something Tesla should consider doing with future new-category product releases. Also, selfishly, done properly, this exercise will ensure I receive my CyberTruck quickly.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

Didn't think my reservation was that far forward, but I've received an invitation to go ahead and order.

Not quite ready to pull the trigger this early on though... so will hold off.

I wonder how many others are doing the same?

View attachment 1003415

Do you, or does anyone know, what your options are if you decline the Founders option? Can you retain your place in line for when they start offering the regular addition? How about if you reserved a tri-motor but would rather move down to the dual motor?

 

[mltv]

Didn't think my reservation was that far forward, but I've received an invitation to go ahead and order.

Not quite ready to pull the trigger this early on though... so will hold off.

I wonder how many others are doing the same?

View attachment 1003415

I also in the same boat. Haven't make up my mind one way or the other. Is there a poll on how many accept and decline?

 

[y_naught]

RN112788...

Thanks! I’m only 57-58k behind you!

 

[Drumheller]

How is this fact-checked?

It would appear he is far, far too large (massive girth/fat in the midsection) to even get in an original Tesla roadster . . . .

Owns/ owned it. Don't know if he ever drove it. I drove a roadster once. I had to crawl onto the ground to get out. I'm less than 6' and less than 200lbs.

Do you, or does anyone know, what your options are if you decline the Founders option? Can you retain your place in line for when they start offering the regular addition? How about if you reserved a tri-motor but would rather move down to the dual motor?

From what I've read, declining the Foundation series will not remove your reservation. They'll come back to you after the Foundation series is complete.

 

[uscbucsfan]

Thanks! I’m only 57-58k behind you!

I've seen at least one 113 reservation number with the Foundation Invite on Twitter.

 

[EVDRVN]

Do you, or does anyone know, what your options are if you decline the Founders option? Can you retain your place in line for when they start offering the regular addition? How about if you reserved a tri-motor but would rather move down to the dual motor?

I had a Founders invite day one, I still have it open and may not pull the trigger but will for sure without Founders. I assume you just move to next position. Some people had it open and it closed. If the tax credit were open on Founders I would likely go for it.

 

[Gigapress]

The next gen car is going to be utilitarian. I’m not sure where the concern about getting fancy is coming from. On the Q3 earnings call Elon said “Just to be clear, it will be cool, but it's utilitarian. It's not meant to, you know, fill you with magic. It's to get you from A to B. It will be still beautiful, but it's utility.”

 

[scaesare]

Setting aside discussion of the in-the-future compact model, it strikes me that the CyberTruck is, in many ways, Tesla doing the same thing they did with the Model X. Many, many new things all at once...arguably, even more so than the Model X. Rather than "not sure Tesla would make a car like this again", it seems they have. Much like with the Model X, I believe we can all agree that there was "some hubris there" with them making the CyberTruck. Also, much like with the Model X, I believe I will get myself one.

Yeah, although I think the focus on the X was to be their take on a mainstream vehicle... an SUV.

The Cybertruck was much more a science project/labor of love, so they may have had more tolerance for risk associated with incorporating more new concepts.. Elon:

I can’t talk about the details, but it’s gonna be like a really futuristic like cyberpunk, Blade Runner pickup truck. You know, I actually don’t know if a lot of people will buy this pickup truck or not, but I don’t care.

They said at the outset if it didn't take, they'd do a more traditional design:

And I’ve been iterating sort of designs with Franz. It’s like I really wanted something that’s like super-futuristic cyberpunk. If there’s only a small number of people that like that truck, I guess we’ll make a more conventional truck in the future. But it’s the thing that I am personally most fired up about. It’s gonna have a lot of titanium. I think this is the kinda thing the consumer would want to buy, even if they don’t normally buy a pickup truck.”

“So, anyway, that’s personally I’m most excited about. But like I said, it could be just like, okay, I weirdly like it and other people don’t. That’s possible. But we’re gonna make it anyway, and then we will just have a niche audience, I don’t know. But if it does, then we’ll make a more conventional pickup truck.”

 

[UkNorthampton]

Yeah, although I think the focus on the X was to be their take on a mainstream vehicle... an SUV.

The Cybertruck was much more a science project/labor of love, so they may have had more tolerance for risk associated with incorporating more new concepts.. Elon:



They said at the outset if it didn't take, they'd do a more traditional design:

Each new vehicle is a "slap down". To what might be a better question

Roadster - performance, style, possibility, coolness
S - manufacturing, Supercharger, "mainstream" sales volumes, BMW/Merc, computing
X - seating, tech (doors), not quite sure
3 - Bye BMW 3 series & ex-competitors - segment killer, higher volume in 2 countries
Y - Category killer - wider/novel manufacturing, best selling car in the world
Semi - electric transport WORKS
Cybertruck - 12 volt, Princess Wagons - redefining vehicles & their production

Next - High volume, low cost of running, category killer, default vehicle choice

 

[Artful Dodger]

This is good news. It shows that people are willing to pay up an additional $16k for additional range while sacrificing some bed space to do so. I wouldn't be surprised to see a factory long range version in the next year or so if this ratio holds.

Long term, Tesla's "battery roadmap" gets CT to that same range when 4680 cell energy density reaches 345 WH/kg w. single-crystal silicon and perhaps w. silicon anode material too:

Replacing Graphite with Silicon as an anode in lithium-ion batteries

Replacing Graphite with Silicon as an anode in lithium-ion batteries allows for more energy storage capabilities, smaller size batteries, and a 10x increase in charge rates.

hpqsilicon.com

Gets all the range, increased payload. Call it 4-5 years so as to not disappoint the early adopters.

 

[jerry33]

Well, I'm not sure the Bolt "show the way" to selling in large numbers.

Now you may argue that it's due to lack of marketing/manufacturing, but I'm not sure I've seen evidence of huge demand either...

The Bolt was a mess of buttons. Took one look and thought "not for me".

 

[jerry33]

As an aside, the "suicide doors" on our 2005 Element have never been the slightest problem. In fact, they seem incredibly well designed for their purpose.

The Honda Element's Unsung Interior Design Brilliance - Core77

It's quirkier, more dog-friendly and utilitarian than anything else I've seen

www.core77.com

They worked great in the 1964 Lincoln too. You could open the rear door while having a bag of groceries on the front door ledge. Never had an issue with not being able to get in the rear as compared to the front.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Why? Sameness does not sell no matter how cool the latest software update was.

Tell that to Porsche 911 buyers. /s

 

[madodel]

Watching dipsticks on CNBC talking about how BYD is going to pass Tesla any day now and plan to make 10's of millions of EVs. Are these talking heads capable of any critical thinking? When will Optimus start taking these morons' jobs?

 

[jerry33]

Watching dipsticks on CNBC talking about how BYD is going to pass Tesla any day now and plan to make 10's of millions of EVs. Are these talking heads capable of any critical thinking? When will Optimus start taking these morons' jobs?

I'd guess Tesla will have to remove some NN circuits to allow them to be able to take the talking heads' jobs.

 

[EVDRVN]

Watching dipsticks on CNBC talking about how BYD is going to pass Tesla any day now and plan to make 10's of millions of EVs. Are these talking heads capable of any critical thinking? When will Optimus start taking these morons' jobs?

Critical thinking for them is keeping their mouth shut and parroting the company line. They are not all stupid but many are.