Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Motor Mouth]

Tesla's data advantage means they have a much better shot at solving the generalized driving problem. If Tesla can do that then they will always have a cost advantage in every market. Tesla's robotaxis always will be cheaper to build and cheaper to operate. So even if Cruise or Waymo get to a market first, Tesla can come in and dominate at any time because they can charge less per mile.

The race between Tesla and Cruise/Waymo has always been only about if (not when) Tesla can solve self driving. Cruise and Waymo may run out of money before they can figure out how to become profitable. But I don't see how Tesla doesn't win the game 100% of the time as long as Tesla's robotaxis actually work.

I'm actually pretty happy that Cruise & Waymo are battling the public perception and regulators first. Ideally, by the time people/municipalities are getting comfortable with AV's, Tesla will be launching its service. Let them block and then hit the hole!

 

[SOULPEDL]

I'm actually pretty happy that Cruise & Waymo are battling the public perception and regulators first. Ideally, by the time people/municipalities are getting comfortable with AV's, Tesla will be launching its service. Let them block and then hit the hole!

The other side is that the public gets a bad experience on Waymo/Cruise much like the charging debacle. But then relieved when Tesla comes to the rescue (like SuperCharging) as they ride in those other vehicles having an FSD licensed from Tesla. There needs to be a Tesla Logo FSD Sticker right? Comes with the License. Oh man, should we design it? Iterating prompts on MidJourney perhaps? A small sticker for the window, rainbow colors (like money), eventually with a scan code for more info on what the car has for brains. It's actually not too far fetched. "Intel Inside" worked quite well in the day. (I do miss those Bunny People dancing Disco!)

 

[Nocturnal]

Anyone else feel like this is the beginning of the end in the market? @StarFoxisDown! are you seeing this? I don't have any options or margin, so the long run is OK... I guess. I was seriously considering moving a good chunk to cash last night until after more banks collapse at least. Cognitive dissonance working against HODL strategy here. And every time I feel this way, Tesla is about to hatch the next 3 golden eggs.

I'm very uncomfortable with this market. If we get more raises then that won't be good, if we get rate cuts that won't be good. I don't expect anything as dramatic as a crash or major recession to be clear.

I often do a lot of options (I take the good and bad with that) but now I'm just TSLA shares and cash. I'll add options back again when the market stabilizes or I see an upcoming catalyst for TSLA.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Anyone else feel like this is the beginning of the end in the market? @StarFoxisDown! are you seeing this? I don't have any options or margin, so the long run is OK... I guess. I was seriously considering moving a good chunk to cash last night until after more banks collapse at least. Cognitive dissonance working against HODL strategy here. And every time I feel this way, Tesla is about to hatch the next 3 golden eggs.

Beginning of the end in the market? You mean for this currently rally?

I find it really hard to see how anyone could think the market (including TSLA) wasn't due for a pullback and/or correction after the rally from the low and the near constant rally since March. Especially in front a big data incoming such as the CPI and PPI numbers this week. Anyone needing cash from their investments in the next 3-6 months is doing the prudent thing by trimming whatever they need to in front of such a rally and important incoming data.

But the idea that something big is incoming, that the market is going to take a huge hit, continues to be a completely flawed narrative/thesis. Every time I hear this narrative, it's entirely dependent on a unknown wild card factor on the scale of GFC/Dot come bust. The reality is that we've essentially already stressed tests a ton of the wild card scenarios and everything has continued on

- dot.com level valuations busted back in 2021-2022, practically all small to mid growth stocks are still down 50-75% from their 2021 highs. Overall market didn't collapse.
- Runaway inflation and thus Fed's raising rates to 10+% was just fear mongering. None of it came true
- Corporate earnings were going to crater. None of it came true
- We had a banking crisis and becuase the overall banking system is much stronger today than it was 15 years ago, everything was just fine

Now I'm not saying everything is all peachy. As I said at the start, the market has been rally mode nonstop for 5 months. A pullback/correction was needed. But as the data comes in, it continues to increasingly look like we're in a repeat of the very late 80's and early 90's and I expect the rest of this decade to mimic the 90's quite eerily. I've been saying this is the likely scenario for well over a year now. What that means is

- Fed Fund rate will fall all the way down to 3% and then vary between 3-5% for the rest of the decade. Days of a Fed Fund rate at 1-2% are over.
- The PE of the S&P will average around 18 with some years slightly under and some over even with a Fed Fund rate at 4-5%
- It's going to be a much slower grind upwards for the overall market but with less volatility

One other thing to note, a minor recession is definitely still a possibility. But it won't be from the Fed's actions. The restart of student loan payments in Oct will be final nail in the coffin for inflation but there's a decent chance that it causes a minor recession. Again, resembles the minor recession in 1990 after the inflation period of 88-89 and the Fed's actions.

 

[cliff harris]

I think this is new?

California regulators to decide the future of Cruise and Waymo | TechCrunch

California regulators will vote Thursday on whether to grant Cruise and Waymo permits to expand commercial robotaxi services across San Francisco 24/7.

techcrunch.com

San Fran about to decide if waymo/cruise can operate daytime services and charge people. Its a big deal for both companies.
I recommend reading the article, if only for the HBOSiliconValley style hilarity of whats gone wrong:

The SFFD has reported incidents of AVs’ rooftop sensors getting entangled with electrical wires after the cars ignored warning signs and yellow emergency tape; blocking firehouse driveways; sitting motionless on one-way streets and causing emergency vehicles to back up while responding to incidents; pulling up behind fire trucks with emergency lights on and interfering with firefighters unloading ladders; and entering an active fire scene and parking on top of a fire hose.

Not trying to bash waymo/cruise, but its sure an easier sell for Teslas approach right now. Not only do Tesla likely have 100x the data for weird events like arriving at a fire scene, from which they can learn, there is also no Tesla operating without someone at the wheel.

I think the smart move is for Tesla to aggressively market FSD subscriptions to existing uber drivers, and get a reputation for making 'driverless' cars that still have a driver, but the driver and passenger can see for themselves how rarely they are needed.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I think this is new?

California regulators to decide the future of Cruise and Waymo | TechCrunch

California regulators will vote Thursday on whether to grant Cruise and Waymo permits to expand commercial robotaxi services across San Francisco 24/7.

techcrunch.com

San Fran about to decide if waymo/cruise can operate daytime services and charge people. Its a big deal for both companies.
I recommend reading the article, if only for the HBOSiliconValley style hilarity of whats gone wrong:

Not trying to bash waymo/cruise, but its sure an easier sell for Teslas approach right now. Not only do Tesla likely have 100x the data for weird events like arriving at a fire scene, from which they can learn, there is also no Tesla operating without someone at the wheel.

I think the smart move is for Tesla to aggressively market FSD subscriptions to existing uber drivers, and get a reputation for making 'driverless' cars that still have a driver, but the driver and passenger can see for themselves how rarely they are needed.

Plus have our cars drive without occupants... please!

 

[2daMoon]

I think the smart move is for Tesla to aggressively market FSD subscriptions to existing uber drivers, and get a reputation for making 'driverless' cars that still have a driver, but the driver and passenger can see for themselves how rarely they are needed.

Better yet if the Hertz/Uber deal could include FSD, with actual usage based upon the driver meeting the Beta qualifications.

This would be a win for Uber drivers who aren't willing to make a Tesla purchase, but, who would consider a clearly profitable lease/rental option.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Are folks considering Elon's recent tweets regarding FSD V12 another "rewrite"?

Yeah, absolutely not a "rewrite". In general, there are 3 main objectives in the FSD stack:

1. Vision/perception (culminates in the Occupancy Network)
2. Navigation (route/lane planning integrated w. map/traffic/weather updates)
3. Real-time controls (currently 300K+ lines of C++ code in v.11.x)

The first 2 items on this list ARE NOT scheduled for a "rewrite": Those are constantly retrained with better data sets, but are close to their final form. Item 3 is the focus for the Autopilot team right now: (and has been for some months)

Elon Musk on Twitter: "v12 is reserved for when FSD is end-to-end AI, from images in to steering, brakes & acceleration out." / Twitter | May 08, 2023​

​

Elon Musk on Twitter: "@WholeMarsBlog I tested the version 12 alpha build today. It is mind-blowing." / Twitter | July 27, 2023​

​

Elon Musk on X: "@Scobleizer Vehicle control is the final piece of the Tesla FSD AI puzzle. That will drop >300k lines of C++ control code by ~2 orders of magnitude. It is training as I write this. Our progress is currently training compute constrained, not engineer constrained." / X | Aug 1, 2023​

Note the final piece of the puzzle, above: AI

Certainly not a complete rewrite, but it seems like a complete rewrite of navigation. I suspect that the beta FSD path everyone is on (v 11.4.x?) is now a dead end and explains why updates have essentially ceased.

Yup, it's not being re-written: human hand-written driving code is being replaced by a computer trained neural net (per Elon above). Now we can talk about how long that will take, but it's dependant upon Dojo training capacity. At some point (likely in the next 6-18 mths), Tesla will no longer be 'training compute limited'. That's likely when we'll see the 'singularity'.

Here's another interesting take on possible timelines:

Elon Musk: FSD Smarter than a Human by EOY. Herbert Ong Gives Analysis of Timing of FSD and Robotaxi | Randy Kirk on Youtube (Aug 04, 2023)

Cheers to the Coders!

 

[Nocturnal]

Better yet if the Hertz/Uber deal could include FSD, with actual usage based upon the driver meeting the Beta qualifications.

This would be a win for Uber drivers who aren't willing to make a Tesla purchase, but, who would consider a clearly profitable lease/rental option.

Am I the only one who would be uncomfortable seeing renters using FSD? Uber drivers? Sure, they are on the clock and will generally try to keep their money flowing. I could just see people renting an FSD car and doing really stupid things with it.

 

[2daMoon]

Am I the only one who would be uncomfortable seeing renters using FSD? Uber drivers? Sure, they are on the clock and will generally try to keep their money flowing. I could just see people renting an FSD car and doing really stupid things with it.

This would not be about letting general Hertz renters use FSD. They won't likely drive enough miles/time for FSD to reach a Safety Score level to qualify them for Beta use before they turn the car back in.

Consider how FSD Beta works now, and how drivers are constantly qualified/disqualified by the system.

Uber drivers are already using FSD, impressing their passengers, and making YouTube videos of this.

Consider also how Hertz now has an ongoing program specifically for Uber drivers that nets them greater income over using an ICE vehicle.

This would only be for those Uber drivers who have established an agreement with Hertz for long-term use of a Tesla. Even then, it is an option and must meet the strict Beta use qualifiers.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Am I the only one who would be uncomfortable seeing renters using FSD? Uber drivers? Sure, they are on the clock and will generally try to keep their money flowing. I could just see people renting an FSD car and doing really stupid things with it.

I'm fine with the Model 3 which is older. My Brother is sitting on 2 fully paid Model 3's with FSD and is counting on it for retirement income. Although HW3 has me questioning the extent of robotaxi if at all, there are lots of Tesla's for rent on Turo. His Turo demand (Sacramento) is dropping lately which gets me wondering why, but could be the abundance of these out there as one theory. (Or his ratings, TBD.)

 

[uscbucsfan]

This would not be about letting general Hertz renters use FSD. They won't likely drive enough miles/time for FSD to qualify them for Beta use before they turn the car back in.

There's no qualifying anymore with Safety Score. Not sure what you mean by "miles/time for FSD to qualify them for Beta use".

I'm not sure how the Hertz program works, but they wouldn't be able to subscribe/buy FSD unless they could link their account to the car. Hertz would have to do it, but again, I'm not sure if Hertz is allowing them access this way.

Revel has the cars locked in valet mode, locked at 70mph, and they can't use navigation on the screen.

 

[2daMoon]

There's no qualifying anymore with Safety Score. Not sure what you mean by "miles/time for FSD to qualify them for Beta use".

I'm not sure how the Hertz program works, but they wouldn't be able to subscribe/buy FSD unless they could link their account to the car. Hertz would have to do it, but again, I'm not sure if Hertz is allowing them access this way.

Revel has the cars locked in valet mode, locked at 70mph, and they can't use navigation on the screen.

Okay, the "Safety Score" IS the qualifier. You have to earn an acceptable score before you can use Beta, right? This will take some period of time and some number of miles to accomplish, will it not?

As for how the program works, that would certainly have to be worked out. It doesn't exist this way now, so, of course this is speculation for a way to provide the experience @cliff harris described. Only the Uber driver would be a lessor rather than an owner.

If you lease a Tesla, can you lease one with FSD? If so, what would be the difference in Hertz leasing a Tesla with FSD to an Uber driver?

 

[uscbucsfan]

Okay, the "Safety Score" IS the qualifier. You have to earn an acceptable score before you can use Beta, right? This will take some period of time and some number of miles to accomplish, will it not?

As for how the program works, that would certainly have to be worked out. It doesn't exist this way now, so, of course this is speculation for a way to provide the experience @cliff harris described. Only the Uber driver would be a lessor rather than an owner.

If you lease a Tesla can you lease one with FSD? If so, what would be the difference in Hertz doing this?

There is no safety score, they've removed it. There's no longer a qualification to get into FSD Beta, just own it or subscribe to it and be on a low enough software build. HW4 cars need to be under or at 2023.7.X, which none of the new deliveries are.

Because Hertz is the owner...When you rent a Hertz, you cannot use your phone or link your account. You have to use a key card. Maybe they have something special worked out for Uber drivers, but normal renters cannot access upgrades.

 

[2daMoon]

There is no safety score, they've removed it. There's no longer a qualification to get into FSD Beta, just own it or subscribe to it and be on a low enough software build. HW4 cars need to be under or at 2023.7.X, which none of the new deliveries are.

Cool. Didn't realize that. If the driver is not meeting some level of attention will FSD still respond with warnings and eventually disengage safely? If so, that behavior on the driver's part would still remain as a minimum qualifier, would it not?

Just seems FSD ought to be good enough for supervision by someone making a living driving to use for fun and profit. Hertz would charge a higher lease rate to offset the additional FSD option cost. Some Uber drivers might see a benefit in using it that way.

Otherwise, meeting the objective of showing Uber passengers first-hand how FSD works would be relegated to Uber drivers who own a Tesla.

 

[uscbucsfan]

Cool. Didn't realize that.

So, it ought to be good enough for supervision by someone making a living driving to use for fun and profit. Hertz would charge a higher lease rate to offset the additional FSD option cost. Some Uber drivers might see a benefit in using it that way.

Otherwise, meeting the objective of showing Uber passengers first-hand how FSD works would be relegated to Uber drivers who own a Tesla.

Again, I don't think this is possible unless Hertz is willing to transfer ownership to the Uber driver for a period. Hertz would need to activate it for the driver.

Whether they would be willing to do that is questionable.

 

[2daMoon]

Again, I don't think this is possible unless Hertz is willing to transfer ownership to the Uber driver for a period. Hertz would need to activate it for the driver.

Whether they would be willing to do that is questionable.

I was merely suggesting how this could expand the exposure to FSD to Uber passengers if Hertz worked out how to do it.

With this in mind, the points you make go without saying. That would be between Hertz and Tesla to figure out the nuts and bolts of being able to offer this.

The question raised is whether this would, or would not, be beneficial toward showing more Uber passengers just how well FSD actually works.

 

[uscbucsfan]

The question raised is whether this would, or would not, be beneficial toward showing more Uber passengers just how well FSD actually works.

The honest answer is no, not yet.

It's still pretty early product and not ready for mainstream. I say this as someone who has had it on 3 cars and is in the first wave of Beta tester groups.

But, in a year or so when it's more confident/polished, absolutely and 100% when it's fully finished.

 

[Singuy]

I wouldn't say near impossible. It's just starting and they're only now bring somewhat cheap vehicles.

The current tax incentives pretty much locks Chinese made cars out of the US, and even worst when they have the ability to capture data.

As for branding, the market is pretty sour on Chinese made stuff and a Chinese car market is not well established when it comes to reliability. It took Hyundai 2 decades of aggressive marketing and top of the line warranty to gain the trust of the people. What BYD needs to do is to market Chinese made cars under a brand that doesn't seem like it's Chinese, like Polestar.

 

[2daMoon]

The honest answer is no, not yet.

It's still pretty early product and not ready for mainstream. I say this as someone who has had it on 3 cars and is in the first wave of Beta tester groups.

But, in a year or so when it's more confident/polished, absolutely and 100% when it's fully finished.

Regardless, Uber drivers who own Teslas are already doing this, recording it, and putting it on YouTube.

We aren't talking about just letting FSD do the job 100% of the time, we are taking about having someone who drives for a living intervene as often as necessary.

You know, like, wouldn't this be a better experience than how Waymo and Cruise do it now with remote drivers and chase cars?

Let's say a passenger rides in a Waymo or Cruise, then gets a demonstration of FSD in an Uber Tesla. They tell two friends, etc.

In the long run this will expose more people to autonomy, and, likely reinforce Tesla's dominance for those passengers who have experience to compare with rides in Waymo and Cruise.

The discussion was about how to accelerate the acceptance by the general public to autonomy through the avenues available.