There's another way legacy survives that gives them a non 0% chance - Just reduce EPA Emission targets, and give them until
May the masses spend more wisely through
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
May the masses spend more wisely through
Words of HABIT
Active Member
Banks are getting downgraded due to their huge bets on commercial real estate and the oil & gas industry, financing their projects, projects that now have high failure status. They got caught behind the times and will now pay the piper for not foreseeing the new trends (work from home, electrification of transportation). Also hitting bricks and mortar banks are Fintech companies such as PayPal and Apple Pay. Just wait until X roles out their Fintech recipe to take over the financial world, the disruption will be similar to what Tesla has done with transportation. Early in my career the best financial advice I received was "put your money in Bank stocks, not in the Banks". It worked great up until about six years ago. The average share price of the five major Canadian Banks have the same price today that they had six years ago, zero percent return for six years except for their dividends. it is no longer good advice to invest in bricks and mortar banking.Couldn't find this mentioned anywhere, but this is what happens when all of Market St in SF is closed. Commercial Real Estate went toxic, revolving credit shrinking, now banks downgraded. Deflation pending. China exports down big, people are trying to pay off credit cards with insane interests, spending spree is over. (Edit, I threw in other situations not mentioned below, all related tho.)
Meanwhile, Tesla is still chugging right along.
/cloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com/reuters/JMBEYAU6YZMTLA4ODSQJ2WFRWQ.jpg)
Moody's downgrades US banks, warns of possible cuts to others
Report comes against backdrop of tightening monetary conditions.www.reuters.com
From my perspective it is all about the rich getting richer and the poor getting poorer. If you have a steady job and own your own home you are in the first category. Where I sit (most of Canada applicable) I see nothing but inflationary pressures. No deflation here:
- labour shortages and large annual pay increases across the board. (2023 is the year of the striking worker for more pay, UAW is next)
- Canada is adding 500k in new immigration per year for a country with population of 40M, (that is 1 out of every 80 citizens per year)
- residential real estate is back to multiple offers and bidding wars
- average price for new vehicles hit a record high in June – $66,288 ($49,260 USD) – up 21 per cent in one year and 47 per cent over four years.
- groceries have never been higher and expected to go higher due to climate change (flooding, fires) and Russia now targeting grain silos in Ukraine, the breadbasket of the world.
- my utilities bills (electricity, water, natural gas) have never been higher
- my insurance premiums have never been higher
- gasoline, after hitting a low of $1.45 per litre is now back up to $1.70 per litre
- college tuition, housing rent, restaurant pricing, and on and on. All pricing continues to go up.
This is why I expect interest rates to rise even further and to stay high longer to combat these inflationary pressures. Perhaps this is just a Canadian phenomena.
Average price of a new car tops $66,000 as drivers wrestle with ‘a very surprising reality’ — The Globe and Mail
Average price of a new vehicle hit a record high in Canada in June – $66,288 – up 21 per cent in one year and 47 per cent over four years
stocks.apple.com
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I don't think that will change anything, folks that get a taste of EV's want an EV, the only hurdle is cost and that will continue to decrease, Tesla are already on-par with cost against similar ICE vehicles, can only move in favour of EV's from hereThere's another way legacy survives that gives them a non 0% chance - Just reduce EPA Emission targets, and give them until2050another year to build ICE. It is the #1 strategy for legacy today. They'd lose California. Ya, well... so? Our track record as humans isn't stellar; more stupidity is anticipated.
May the masses spend more wisely throughproper education and less FUDTesla Infomercials!
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Yes, this is the situation today and assumes we continue to have both buyers and makers of goods. The forces are confluencing, and hard to predict (said the Fed, lol). On one hand people don't want factory jobs (including the Chinese) so a dwindling labor workforce is driving the prices upward (rising wages). Meanwhile, people are tightening as evidence by the reduction in revolving credit, which typically leads to unemployment as manufacturing slows.Banks are getting downgraded due to their huge bets on commercial real estate and the oil & gas industry, financing their projects, projects that now have high failure status. They got caught behind the times and will now pay the piper for not foreseeing the new trends (work from home, electrification of transportation). Also hitting bricks and mortar banks are Fintech companies such as PayPal and Apple Pay. Just wait until X roles out their Fintech recipe to take over the financial world, the disruption will be similar to what Tesla has done with transportation. Early in my career the best financial advice I received was "put your money in Bank stocks, not in the Banks". It worked great up until about six years ago. The average share price of the five major Canadian Banks have the same price today that they had six years ago, zero percent return for six years except for their dividends. it is no longer good advice to invest in bricks and mortar banking.
From my perspective it is all about the rich getting richer and the poor getting poorer. If you have a steady job and own your own home you are in the first category. Where I sit (most of Canada applicable) I see nothing but inflationary pressures. No deflation here:
- labour shortages and large annual pay increases across the board. (2023 is the year of the striking worker for more pay, UAW is next)
- Canada is adding 500k in new immigration per year for a country with population of 40M, (that is 1 out of every 80 citizens per year)
- residential real estate is back to multiple offers and bidding wars
- average price for new vehicles hit a record high in June – $66,288 ($49,260 USD) – up 21 per cent in one year and 47 per cent over four years.
- groceries have never been higher and expected to go higher due to climate change (flooding, fires) and Russia now targeting grain silos in Ukraine, the breadbasket of the world.
- my utilities bills (electricity, water, natural gas) have never been higher
- my insurance premiums have never been higher
- gasoline, after hitting a low of $1.45 per litre is now back up to $1.70 per litre
- college tuition, housing rent, restaurant pricing, and on and on. All pricing continues to go up.
This is why I expect interest rates to rise even further and to stay high longer to combat these inflationary pressures. Perhaps this is just a Canadian phenomena.
Average price of a new car tops $66,000 as drivers wrestle with ‘a very surprising reality’ — The Globe and Mail
Average price of a new vehicle hit a record high in Canada in June – $66,288 – up 21 per cent in one year and 47 per cent over four years
So this could go either way, inflation for a bit longer, then possibly followed by deflation. All we'd need to trigger this is a stock market sell-off. Boomers have the illusion of wealth with their 401Ks, yet many of these stocks are either worthless or stagnant. So Money Flow could come to a standstill, maybe even this year. Also, I don't buy the soft landing theory, and I am NOT an economist (but it's starting to sink in some hanging around here).
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
Instead of worrying how established manufacturers are going to transition to EVs, worry about the EVs companies that were suppose to be disruptors in the markets. Sad, I was impressed with their products. I guess BYD won too many contracts.
/cloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com/reuters/V7AS6C7JZNJJDDXVWL72EYSXKM.jpg)
EV firm Proterra files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection
Electric-vehicle parts supplier Proterra filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on Monday, making it the latest company to go belly up in an industry grappling with supply chain constraints, slowing demand and a funding drought.www.reuters.com
If considered in the context of successful automotive start-ups (over past 100 years?) this is probably par for the course.
There are likely many reasons that contribute to the failure of these manufacturers. Competition could be part of that, along with administration, funding, supply chain, and more, where each can pull on a lever against their success.
Someone should let these companies know that scaling production is hard.
I expect plenty of new vehicle manufacturers will shutter their doors during the transition.
Granted, the legacy OEMs are doomed too if they can't get their ducks in a row, but they have a leg up with experience in operations if only they can figure out how to morph from ICE to BEV now, rather than prolonging their own slow, painful demise over an inability to accept the pressing need for immediate change.
I honestly don't understand what the fascination with BYD is. They are at the end of the line of their product. They have $15k-25k EVs selling at volume, slightly higher volume than $40-50k Teslas in China. Can I get a pickachu shock face? BYD's true Tesla competitor the Seal are way under volume compared to Teslas. Tesla haven't even started with their super high volume pushers. So we are comparing two companies making massively different revenue even though one company has some slightly higher volume in one region of the world and having a near impossible time going global.
insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
Are folks considering Elon's recent tweets regarding FSD V12 another "rewrite"? Certainly not a complete rewrite, but it seems like a complete rewrite of navigation. I suspect that the beta FSD path everyone is on (v 11.4.x?) is now a dead end and explains why updates have essentially ceased. While I am impressed of how nimble Tesla has been with beta FSD and their willingness to stop, turn around, and go backwards to take a different path, it continues to illustrate that we're not on the final path yet. Maybe this last change to end to end NN is the final path/answer....or maybe it's just the next attempt at a local maximum. I wish the team a speedy answer and will continue to wait for a new version of FSD that is an improvement. Godspeed Tesla!
Anyone else feel like this is the beginning of the end in the market? @StarFoxisDown! are you seeing this? I don't have any options or margin, so the long run is OK... I guess. I was seriously considering moving a good chunk to cash last night until after more banks collapse at least. Cognitive dissonance working against HODL strategy here. And every time I feel this way, Tesla is about to hatch the next 3 golden eggs.
insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
What are BYDs margins compared to Tesla's? What if we compare BYD BEVs only? Which BEV manufacturer has the second best margins behind Tesla today, specifically for BEV products?I agree that PHEV are by no means true EVs. It is clear that the vast majority of PHEV never get plugged in for a charge in their lives. Nevertheless PHEV are worth tracking as they increasingly affect the GWh/yr of battery deployed, and that is a good underlying industrial adoption indicator. That is why I have included PHEV in the S-curve analysis, and we now are at the mid-2023 = 19% point on the S-curve, where the red cross is*, which is remarkably close to the predicted end-2023 position of 21%. That is up from 13% for 2022.
Another 5-years of this rate of progress and it is game over apart from sweeping up the fragments.
View attachment 963439
For simplicity assume the market stabilises at 100 million vehicles/year, so Tesla's target of 20m/yr would represent a 20% market share. (Personally I have modelled with 94m/yr but it really doesn't matter.)
Tesla has not achieved that market share by vehicle-#-sales count in recent years, declining from 17% in 2019 to 12% in 2022. So by vehicle # it will need to grow its vehicle sales faster than industry average to recover the lost ground. More positively Tesla has a 22% market share by battery GWh, but even there Tesla is growing at !! only !! 48% yoy which is slower than the industry average of 80% yoy.
I will be astounded if there are not several high profile company failures during this transition, and it will be interesting to see what happens to any of their EV capacity that can be salvaged when they go pop. It might be that only the cell supply is worth rescuing and diverting into the viable auto businesses. But there must also be concerns as to what extent some less satisfactory cells are being used in automotive - not all of that 80% yoy cell supply growth is built on firm foundations.
View attachment 963437
Tesla's own market share graphs give much the same story, suggesting a 2030 position of say 12-15%, which would still be a huge outcome. Regrettably it would not justify the current TSLA share price if that were to be the only outcome, so let us hope that the other revenue streams deliver and are profitable (energy, robotics).
View attachment 963441
The brand positions give one a pretty shrewd insight as to who has a chance of surviving long enough to compete in the post-transition landscape. Leaders by automotive group include Tesla, BYD, SAIC, Geely-Volvo, Stellantis, SAIC, Volksawgen Group, Hyundai/Kia, and GM (via its 50/50 share in the Wuhling HonGuang Mini), and Mercedes. I sense that a pretty steep filter is going to get applied at some point.
World EV Sales Now 19% Of World Auto Sales! - CleanTechnica
Sign up for daily news updates from CleanTechnica on email. Or follow us on Google News! Global plugin vehicle registrations were up 38% in June 2023 compared to June 2022, rising to 1,260,00 units. In the end, plugins represented 19% share of the overall auto market (13% BEV share alone). ...cleantechnica.com
View attachment 963442
So my own big takeaways are:
- There is not 10x left, really there is not much more than 5x left as it is the GWh cell supply that is the controlling constraint;
- Any company that is not well along the S-curve by now is likely to fail to survive the transition;
- Since several Chinese companies are much further along the S-curve than the industry average, then they will inevitably displace a number of legacy ICE manufacturers, i.e. Western/Japanese;
- Since Tesla is also much further along the S-curve than the industry average, then it too will inevitably displace more legacy ICE manufacturers;
- And Tesla will have to improve its relative performance if it is to reach 20m vehicles and a ~20% market share, though to an extent it can bulk up its vehicle# position as it progressively launches smaller vehicles, i.e. the 2/Z and in time a '1';
- As companies go to the edge there will be a savage price war which will make the last year or so of margin compression look like a kindergarten affair. Margin compression will be a reality for everyone in the industry, and only those with huge access to capital and compelling products with good margins and assured cell supply will survive. It will be an absolute bloodbath, and it will have huge geopolitical implications. The US-IRA is only a foretaste of what is likely coming in protectionist terms. Bailouts and last man standing will be the name of the game.
- Tesla absolutely needs to retain all its capital to sustain itself through this transition, so no share buybacks for the next 5-years unless an outrageous opportunity presents itself. Also Tesla needs to have sales, production and cell supply and critical raw material supply positioned globally so as to withstand a round of global protectionism. All of which is happening.
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*19% would reflect 18m vehicles if the full-year-2023 outcome is 94m vehicles (both tbd of course in the full-year version), and since I have given the 3-S-curve version of this graph that is perhaps the most useful way to plot this for now. However the stats I've seen for all-auto suggest 2023 FY of 86.2m units so that would be 16 million EVs if H2-2023 is just a replay of H1-2023.
petit_bateau
Active Member
I don't get emotional re whether people agree or disagree with me on something like this. I just try to understand what the data is telling us, and what the implications are. If I've misunderstood something I'd much rather folk say so then we can see if we can learn anything from it.
Based on the current position BYD have a chance of being a survivor both as one of the largest cell manufacturers (third place as of end 2022), and as a significant automotove OEM. That seems reasonable, no ?
You may be correct that positions in the PHEV ranks are not necessarily a good indication of the future BEV pure play outcomes. But just as a pure-play BEV maker BYD is not doing too badly either, no ?
And if we look at that table I put up of cells per vehicle we can see that PHEVs were averaging 12 kWh three years ago and have since doubled to 24 kWh. Another few years of this progression (if it persists) and that'll be doubled again to 48 kWh by approx end 2025 at which point it is a no-brainer for BYD (and everybody else) to just drop the extra costs of the ICE-hydrid out of the vehicles and become a full-on BEV pureplay. After all if you look at the 2022 cells/vehicle for non-Tesla that is currently only 48 kWh. I appreciate that the Wuhling Mini (et al) is a downwards distortion on the avge cells/veh metric.
My personal opinion is that PHEV as a class will fade quite quickly after 2025. At least I hope so, and I think that is what the data are telling us. The mid-2023 BEH/PHEV split is 69-31% so much the same as it has been for the last few years. It certainly isn't rising sharply in favour of PHEV:
(I don't like Jose Pontes CleanTechnica's style of writing, nor their lack of deeper analysis of the data (so much wasted opportunity to slice n dice), but I think you are exagerating to say they are pushing a false narrative. They do say exactly what they are describing. And in the case of Jose Pontes he is writing in a second language so any style quejas I have aren't really something I lose sleep over.)
ps. The longer BYD throw in an ICE drivetrain along with the EV one, the longer they will be carrying extra costs vs Tesla in their PHEV range. As TSLA shareholder that's a nice handicap the competition are giving their cost base.
I don't know.
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insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
End-to-end was always the end game.
George Hotz told us that years ago. Tesla knew it too, but couldn't say it out loud for obvious reasons.
Actually, now that I think about it, Andrej Karpathy told us, but not in so many words. His musings about how Software 2.0 is eating traditional code basically says that end-to-end is the future.
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There will definitely be interesting times coming up, just waiting for companies like Ford to use the regulatory credits they've been buying as part of the justification for support.
insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
This WSJ video is about one of the several Tesla accidents currently under investigation. 5 of the injured officers are suing Tesla. This accident occurred in 2019. The current autopilot software is nothing like it was in 2019, so I don't see how this pans out? I guess negligence will have to be proven. Seems obvious to me that the negligent party in this story is the drunk driver that decided to get behind the wheel and Tesla /autopilot is just along for the sensationalism.
www.wsj.com
Watch: Exclusive Tesla Footage Suggests Reasons for Autopilot Crashes
A WSJ analysis of dashcam footage and data from a Texas crash shows Tesla’s Autopilot system failed to recognize stopped emergency vehicles. Photo illustration:
www.wsj.com
The Accountant
Active Member
He (Vaibhav Taneja) did not speak at the last earnings call but I feel pretty certain that he has been present during the earnings calls over the past few years.
The reason why you don't see Executive Teams (of virtually all companies) hold Earnings Calls with Video (Zoom or other) is because they usually have support staff with them. The support staff is there in case a question comes in from an analyst which requires the staff to dig for numbers.
When a difficult question comes from an analyst, a CEO will be the first to answer the question (in generalities) to buy time for the team to dig into the data.
John (Analyst):
Have the tough market conditions but pressure on your margins for Product B in Europe this past quarter.
CEO:
I'll go first, thanks for the question John. We've seen very positive interest in product B in Europe as we believe we have a compelling product . blah . .blah.
Joe do you have anything to add?
Joe (CFO) after huddling with the finance staff:
Yes - I'll add that our margins for product B held up nicely in Europe going from 25.32% in Q1 to 25.45% in Q2.
Marc_K_inNJ
Member
I think Tesla recently showed off this possible concept to Ford… when they wrapped the Cybertruck in an F-150 wrap…
This is indeed encouraging for Cruise. While it sounds great that they are entering new markets, the sound I need to hear is, "We see a clear path to profitability." Correct me if I'm wrong, but we haven't heard that yet?
Tesla's data advantage means they have a much better shot at solving the generalized driving problem. If Tesla can do that then they will always have a cost advantage in every market. Tesla's robotaxis always will be cheaper to build and cheaper to operate. So even if Cruise or Waymo get to a market first, Tesla can come in and dominate at any time because they can charge less per mile.
The race between Tesla and Cruise/Waymo has always been only about if (not when) Tesla can solve self driving. Cruise and Waymo may run out of money before they can figure out how to become profitable. But I don't see how Tesla doesn't win the game 100% of the time as long as Tesla's robotaxis actually work.
I wouldn't say near impossible. It's just starting and they're only now bring somewhat cheap vehicles.
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