Pre-AP S Pricing In The Model 3 Era

[Blup85]

Subjective impressions are different than objective volume metric calculations.

Then there is always the "Perception is reality" bit.

 

[whitex]

Op just offered to buy pre-AP on other thread (Model S 85kWh, loaded, excellent condition, warranties - $36,900), so can't be too worried about the "nosedive" in price Then again with the spreadsheet showing <$45k for 85, this one being much less than that.

It was a 2012 sig, so over 5 years old. Priced to sell as indicated by interest on that thread. 2014 non-AP S85 would sell for more.

 

[FlatSix911]

Here is an update to your chart ... the Model S 60 does 0-60 in 5.5 seconds. Did the original pre-AP1 do 5.9?
Tesla Model S - Wikipedia
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After listening to The Tesla Show review a Model 3 I was struck by their opinion that given the choice between an S and a 3 they would take the 3. Not everyone is going to feel the same way, but I do think that the 3 creates a price cap on Pre-AP S as the 3 outclasses the pre-AP S in every category except size. As 3 production ramps up I think older S prices are going to take a nosedive. If the EV tax credit survives it's going to be even harder to justify a used S for early 3 reservation holders.

View attachment 264648

 

[T34ME]

Model 3 is quite a bit smaller

Uhhh.. Whattt? I was in a 3 yesterday and its no where close to being larger inside in comparison of the S!

Then there is always the "Perception is reality" bit.

Perception is never a good predictor of reality. According to the EPA, the Model 3 is about 3% larger than the Model S in passenger volume. In fact, the Model S has the same interior volume as my 2012 Prius!

 

[Zorg]

What are the actual inside dimensions?

 

[Dynastar]

having seat comfort as a category looks meaningless as this varies from person to person, youre also forgetting about P85, P85+ cars which are faster than model 3

also not everyone buys a tesla for AP

This comparison was vanilla Pre-AP 60 and 85s only to keep things simple. Certainly a P should command a premium.

You can currently get an pre-AP s85 used in the $35k-$40k range if you don't mind high-mileage. At that price, and considering the $7.5k in US might be going away for deliveries after the end of the year you could get a model s for approximately the same price as a base model 3 after delivery fee. At that point you are getting:

* Free supercharging for life
* 3-4 year battery/motor unlimited mile warranty
* More cargo space (huge frunk since pre-D)
* Extra range (~255 mile range vs 220)
* 2 screens instead of 1
* Hatchback
* Panoramic roof (on almost all 85's)
* Power lift gate / Tech package (on almost all 85's)
* Other possible features depending on which 85 (parking sensors, cold weather pkg, premium sound...)

Not to say there aren't a lot of upsides to a model 3, just depends on what you are looking for. For me, someone looking to do a lot of road trips, the free charging, unl mile warranty and cargo space are very welcome. I would probably run through the model 3 warranty pretty fast if had it. I completely understand those who think model 3 is a no brainer over a pre-AP model s though, there is a lot to like.

It looks like you're comparing an 85 to a SR, not the LR. The free supercharging is a bonus, although I'm not sure how much it's worth. For me it would be <$100/year, but YMMV. When the greater efficiency of the 3 is considered any savings from free SC is probably erased.

You forgot one other data point. If I want a Tesla right NOW, I can buy from several outstanding Pre AP MS cars. If I want a Model 3, I can order it right now, but get it....well, who knows yet? I decided I did not want AP and bought my MS about a month after the reservations were taken for the Model 3s last year. My smile has been wide for a long time now. That M3 smile probably won't start for a long time now.

True, but this is a temporary situation and people tend to plan out large purchases anyway. The people interested in an older S are more likely to also have a 3 reservation.

Op just offered to buy pre-AP on other thread (Model S 85kWh, loaded, excellent condition, warranties - $36,900), so can't be too worried about the "nosedive" in price Then again with the spreadsheet showing <$45k for 85, this one being much less than that.

Yup that was me, and it supported my point- that was an 85 with a warranty for waaaaay less then an LR. It was probably under-priced, but not $10k under priced. And it was a Sig to boot, a piece of history.

Also please keep in mind in my first post I said "As 3 production ramps up". This is a prediction for the next 6 months.

 

[Dynastar]

Here is an update to your chart ... the Model S 60 does 0-60 in 5.5 seconds. Did the original pre-AP1 do 5.9?
Tesla Model S - Wikipedia
,
View attachment 265881

I used published 0-60 numbers to keep things simple. I'd guess many buyers would.

 

[FlatSix911]

I used published 0-60 numbers to keep things simple. I'd guess many buyers would.

Where is the 5.9-second number coming from ... what published source?
I would suggest that you update your chart to reflect the correct 5.5-second number

 

[burjoes]

I'm a Model 3 day one reservation holder, expecting Dec - Feb. But due to a large Net Operating Loss, I carry forward a negative tax consequence which means I have $0 AGI and therefore can't get the tax credit. With no lease on the horizon, I'll either have to convince someone to be the owner on the title to get the $7500, private party lease, or hold on to my reservation for future use after the tax credit is gone and the price naturally falls like solar panels. My current plan is to buy a used Model S but want it to be on the lower end. Found a local 2013 P85+ for $50k with 63k miles and CPO warranty for 2-3 more years; and a 2014 P85+ for $56k with 32k miles but warranty ends in February and no CPO. Do you think these cars will plummet in value over the next couple of years? They were $100k+ cars when new, just 3 years ago...how much more could they drop?

 

[Zorg]

I'm a Model 3 day one reservation holder, expecting Dec - Feb. But due to a large Net Operating Loss, I carry forward a negative tax consequence which means I have $0 AGI and therefore can't get the tax credit. With no lease on the horizon, I'll either have to convince someone to be the owner on the title to get the $7500, private party lease, or hold on to my reservation for future use after the tax credit is gone and the price naturally falls like solar panels. My current plan is to buy a used Model S but want it to be on the lower end. Found a local 2013 P85+ for $50k with 63k miles and CPO warranty for 2-3 more years; and a 2014 P85+ for $56k with 32k miles but warranty ends in February and no CPO. Do you think these cars will plummet in value over the next couple of years? They were $100k+ cars when new, just 3 years ago...how much more could they drop?

If you are patient you can get a 2014 CPO 85 for low mid 50s with 4 year warranty.

 

[FlatSix911]

I'm a Model 3 day one reservation holder, expecting Dec - Feb. But due to a large Net Operating Loss, I carry forward a negative tax consequence which means I have $0 AGI and therefore can't get the tax credit. With no lease on the horizon, I'll either have to convince someone to be the owner on the title to get the $7500, private party lease, or hold on to my reservation for future use after the tax credit is gone and the price naturally falls like solar panels. My current plan is to buy a used Model S but want it to be on the lower end. Found a local 2013 P85+ for $50k with 63k miles and CPO warranty for 2-3 more years; and a 2014 P85+ for $56k with 32k miles but warranty ends in February and no CPO. Do you think these cars will plummet in value over the next couple of years? They were $100k+ cars when new, just 3 years ago...how much more could they drop?

I would recommend looking for a Model S that has AP1 if you want to reduce your future depreciation.