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FSD very far away due to regulations?
- Thread starter Daniel in SD
- Start date
Garlan Garner
Banned
I agree.
And I would like to have my line waiter gift.
And I would like to have my P3d+ performance badge.
And I would like to have my spoiler.
And I would like to have ……...
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
According to Elon himself the cost per unit is the same between HW2 and HW3
So unless development cost was $0.00, HW3 cost them money.
Which wouldn't make sense to do unless they expected to have some software ready to actually use it.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Sure, but how would the cost of HW3, if it had been sourced from Nvidia, compare to the cost of HW2 (or the actual HW3, I guess is more relevant)?
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
I think you're missing the point?
If they weren't planning to have SW for HW3 really close to the time they are installing HW3- why would they need HW3 from any supplier internal or external? Processor only gets cheaper over time- if they didn't need upgraded HW for any new SW for another year or two it'd make no sense to have developed it to roll out this year.
The fact they did spend the time/$ on HW3 suggests they will have SW to go with it.
And they've said it's specifically for FSD software.
Therefore, FSD software (SOME features anyway, surely nothing close to L5) coming this year (possibly by mid-year assuming they keep to the announced HW rollout schedule)
To be fair, Elon was a bit less hyperbolic and more pragmatic about FSD in 2014... in this Bloomberg interview about AP/FSD (@ 02:15).
According to his time-table (2014 + 5-6 years + 2-3 years for reg approval).... we have FSD in 2021-2023.
That said, I didn't think we would get Unicorn Farts until 2029... sometimes technology advances faster than we can predict.
According to his time-table (2014 + 5-6 years + 2-3 years for reg approval).... we have FSD in 2021-2023.
That said, I didn't think we would get Unicorn Farts until 2029... sometimes technology advances faster than we can predict.
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AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Arrgghh. It's true, I can NEVER win an argument on the internets (especially with @Knightshade). However, the specific claim that @Daniel in SD was making is that bringing this in house saves them hardware costs relative to their other options for that enhanced hardware. I think I agree with that, but it sounds like you disagree still? It may have other long-term benefits as well, of course!
Anyway, I think typically when you have a new hardware platform, especially if it is full custom and quite different than your prior platform, you have to spend some time and resources making sure your existing software is ported over to it. In fact, that seems like it could be step 1 in the software development. You might have various regression tests to ensure that the ported software running on HW3 performs similarly to HW2, for example.
I think we agree that they definitely will have SW for HW3 when they start putting it in cars. I would not be surprised if they throw in speed limit recognition as an FSD feature. Promise KEPT.
EDIT: I don't know whether this is technically classified as an FSD feature, but I am 100% certain I will know very shortly.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
No, I'd agree with that- but that doesn't seem to be what he actually said.
He said the cost of developing and building a new part is way lower than what Nvidia is charging them (as in- right now what Nvidia is charging for the HW2.x parts).
That's factually incorrect per Elon- same cost in house HW3 vs what Nvidia IS charging them for HW2.x
Sure. That's already happened in the lab months before the HW goes to final production. Pretty sure this was mentioned on the previous earnings call about how amazing the NNs running on the next-gen stuff in the lab was.
You don't go to mass production of your HW before you're sure your SW works on it.
.
I think we agree that they definitely will have SW for HW3 when they start putting it in cars. I would not be surprised if they throw in speed limit recognition as an FSD feature. Promise KEPT.
Yup... which is allegedly mid-this-year.
I also really like the idea someone mentioned that the HW3 cars could be used to update the speed limit database for all the older cars without HW3.
Nah, we should go in order of who has waited the longest. So the 2016 S and X guys, early 3’s (me) then you P owners. You haven’t even had your car a year yet, pshaw.
That’s hard to believe. I guess Nvidia has good prices! HW3 must be an enormous chip.
Garlan Garner
Banned
Everything you say is very possible but just to cover all the bases there is another good reason to ship HW3 as soon as possible: limiting retrofit obligations to HW2 and HW2.5 cars.
Unless Tesla stops selling retrofits entirely for new cars every car they ship with HW2.5 is a potential HW3 retrofit target and therefore potentially a cost and logistics liability as people can opt to buy FSD at order time or later.
If HW3 is the end of the road for these retrofits (meaning nothing further will be retrofitted ever for FSD customers) getting to it as soon as possible helps stop growing retrofit liabilities as nothing needs to be retrofitted to cars sold anymore.
CarlK
Active Member
Geofenced system is so easy. Smaller the area the easier it is. That's how everyone is using to "demo" their technology. Even a blind person could move unassisted inside his house or few blocks around the house. BTW Waymo cars has done what the car in the video did more than three year ago with a pod without a steering wheel.
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JeffK
Well-Known Member
Well, if you drive with NoA you are using a predetermined route. Mapping is very important and Tesla had a new patent regarding that.
I hope Tesla implements a visualization similar to that when it does FSD. It needs to be a little more detailed than what's currently there.
CarlK
Active Member
Yes Tesla will put HW3 board in every new car shipped soon as supply is there. It does not save Tesla any money to continue using old chip from the third party supplier. HW3 may not be end of road for retrofits but it likely will be end of road for free retrofits.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Nope- they've said repeatedly anybody who paid for FSD gets all HW upgrades needed for FSD. No expiration date.
That's one of the primary reasons some folks paid for FSD in the first place- to future-proof that aspect of the cars hardware.
If there does end up being more HW changes needed start looking for the post-purchase cost of FSD to become tiered based on how much HW needs to be upgraded on older cars.
JeffK
Well-Known Member
I don't know... I feel a lawsuit if they can't provide FSD still even with HW 3 unless there's a free upgrade route.
Garlan Garner
Banned
My opinion = I think Tesla messed up by creating a thing called FSD in the first place - when they already had a thing called EAP.
My opinion = I think that FSD will only be a grownup of EAP when its all said and done.
They should have never had a thing called FSD. They should only have had EAP - and versions of it.
JeffK
Well-Known Member
Elon had a pilot's license so he probably is using the autopilot name literally instead of how the general public thinks of it.
I think autopilot (EAP) will stay relatively the same with the addition of summon+ and that FSD will be more like the FSD demos we've seen from Tesla, Drive.ai, Cruise Automation, etc.
In my opinion they are very different modes of function with overlap only on freeways/highways.
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