FSD very far away due to regulations?

[mongo]

On-ramp to off-ramp without driver input. NoA is quite far from this state; it doesn't handle on-ramps at all and its off-ramp support is downright scary, and clearly it doesn't do anything without driver input. EAP was originally implied to be a highway L3 system.

Advanced summon includes the car turning corners as needed, for example in a curved driveway. This implies that it needs to operate unsupervised since if it's coming around a curve it will be out of your line of sight for part of the trip. It's debatable whether they're on the hook for the car to pull up to the curb (which would be doing it on a public road rather than private driveway.)

The self-parking features of EAP were only very vaguely described, but I expect something better than the existing autopark -- something that can actually find a spot.

March 15 should bring the no-nag NoA along with improvements in performance.

It sounds (to my optimistic ears) like advanced summon with drive around a parking lot to get to you, so your house should be do-able. I'm guessing it will do the reverse to park (or circle forever while you Christmas shop)...

Should be an interesting discussion in a little over 2 weeks.

 

[boonedocks]

March 15 should bring the no-nag NoA along with improvements in performance.

It sounds (to my optimistic ears) like advanced summon with drive around a parking lot to get to you, so your house should be do-able. I'm guessing it will do the reverse to park (or circle forever while you Christmas shop)...

Should be an interesting discussion in a little over 2 weeks.

For the three cars that actually get the update maybe. Both of our 2017 Tesla's are still on 2018.50 with no: dog mode, sentry mode, location based auto-folding mirrors.....which according to Elon were released almost 4 weeks ago now. \i/

 

[mongo]

For the three cars that actually get the update maybe. Both of our 2017 Tesla's are still on 2018.50 with no: dog mode, sentry mode, location based auto-folding mirrors.....which according to Elon were released almost 4 weeks ago now. \i/

Maybe they paused updates in anticipation?
Hope you get it soon!

 

[Knez]

No, Adv Summon finds you in a car, this should be in the March 15th release also, so we can see how it works then.

To be precise there was no such feature as Advanced Summon in 2017. It was Smart Summon:

So that's the question what kind of Fantastic Beasts are Adv Summons and Where to Find Them...

 

[mongo]

To be precise there was no such feature as Advanced Summon in 2017. It was Smart Summon:
View attachment 381894
So that's the question what kind of Fantastic Beasts are Adv Summons and Where to Find Them...

Thanks for the reference, I was trying to remember the summon variants that were added last year.

 

[timewasted]

For the three cars that actually get the update maybe. Both of our 2017 Tesla's are still on 2018.50 with no: dog mode, sentry mode, location based auto-folding mirrors.....which according to Elon were released almost 4 weeks ago now. \i/

The rules for rolling out new features is pretty easy to understand these days:

1) Model 3 is definitely getting it, and likely very soon.
2) AP2.5 Model S and X will most likely get it, probably after a bit of a delay.
3) AP2.0 will be assured that it's coming and then never mentioned again so that they can ride that sweet "but Elon said it's coming so it's just a matter of time!" train.
4) AP1.0: "MobileEye? We never made any cars using their system. This looks like some Chinese knockoff car to us. Now the Model 3, THAT is a REAL Tesla!"

As someone who missed the AP2.5 cutoff by under a week, you can definitely say I've become jaded these past few months.

 

[Bladerskb]

March 15 should bring the no-nag NoA along with improvements in performance.

It sounds (to my optimistic ears) like advanced summon with drive around a parking lot to get to you, so your house should be do-able. I'm guessing it will do the reverse to park (or circle forever while you Christmas shop)...

Should be an interesting discussion in a little over 2 weeks.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

According to Elon himself the cost per unit is the same between HW2 and HW3

Best not to believe Elon. Elon was wrong about the unit cost. (HW3 is 28% cheaper unit cost allegedly.)

So unless development cost was $0.00, HW3 cost them money.

You're right on this point, he also said the entire cost structure of Tesla is autonomy, pretty clear HW3 is costing them money!

I suspect that HW2 and HW3 will be identical in software for the rest of the year.

This appears likely to be incorrect. Time will tell, as far as end customers are concerned. Should be decided pretty soon. I guess it's not clear what the situation is right now - though of course HW2.5 and HW3 will be different in drivers, etc., so the software is different...but is it fundamentally different right now, perhaps not. Presumably will be fundamentally different very soon, anyway.

The reason to make their own hardware is to get more control over a critical part of the car. The cost of actually getting the hardware built is way lower than what what Nvidia is charging them so it also improves gross margins.

This appears to be correct in retrospect. I guess one could argue that Daniel was right on this point and Knightshade was wrong, or perhaps Knightshade was actually in agreement with Daniel (a little hard to tell, it sounded like disagreement but actually he did not disagree explicitly - since he included development costs while Daniel was talking about gross margins). We really should establish a way to score things.

 

[Knightshade]

Yeah- depends on what frame of reference you use for math.

HW3 is cheaper per unit- but cost a bundle to develop.

Pete said that was basically how they talked Elon into it- bunch of cost up front, but they'd eventually make it back per part saving per car in the long run.

If they end up just covering development, or end up actually ahead (on top of having a better part) remains to be seen, and I suppose ties a bit into how many they go through before HW4 comes along.

 

[mongo]

Yeah- depends on what frame of reference you use for math.

HW3 is cheaper per unit- but cost a bundle to develop.

Pete said that was basically how they talked Elon into it- bunch of cost up front, but they'd eventually make it back per part saving per car in the long run.

If they end up just covering development, or end up actually ahead (on top of having a better part) remains to be seen, and I suppose ties a bit into how many they go through before HW4 comes along.

Also consider the comparison in price should not be 2.5 vs 3.0, but rather 3.0 vs an Nvidia solution with equivalent processing power when running the FSD NN. Then back out the impact of increased power consumption and the retrofit cost increase needed to get it to work in the existing S/X vehicles.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Also consider the comparison in price should not be 2.5 vs 3.0, but rather 3.0 vs an Nvidia solution with equivalent processing power when running the FSD NN. Then back out the impact of increased power consumption and the retrofit cost increase needed to get it to work in the existing S/X vehicles.

Yeah it is a lot cheaper from that perspective (that’s all I thought originally they would save on, earlier in this thread). Daniel “boldly“ claimed they would save even vs. the less capable hardware, which he was right about. But not that bold a prediction as an IC designer - as with most things if you do it yourself and you have the competency it’ll be cheaper and better.

Overall makes me somewhat more bullish on Tesla’s future if they can survive for a bit longer and keep good people. Good to see them trying to really control the hardware.