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  1. AlanSubie4Life

    Coronavirus

    Least surprising news ever: https://wapo.st/3VnatIP
  2. AlanSubie4Life

    FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

    I guess you are planning on improvement between the 12.3.1 and 12.4.1 release dates? I would assume 12.5 can not be expected before end of July. And will also be woefully insufficient. I didn’t watch the video. Thanks for the descriptions. It sounds awful, we are definitely screwed and the...
  3. AlanSubie4Life

    FSD tweets

    It’s a mistake any human could make, humans are so bad at driving. 😂 It’s all hopeless.
  4. AlanSubie4Life

    Coronavirus

    I’m living on the edge these days. I am going to start masking only in indoor crowded areas with long exposures. And maybe at work in certain situations (people love to come to work sick). On vacation I am not bothering to mask in hotel hallways, elevators, etc. I have seven vaccines so...
  5. AlanSubie4Life

    FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

    Yep after 15k posts, about time to close the book on V12, and FSD in general. Wishful thinking is not a solution to autonomy. Maybe next hardware, but seems that a few more breakthroughs are also needed. Obviously it’s WAY more than a few missing cameras. Presumably these breakthroughs...
  6. AlanSubie4Life

    FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

    No don’t own one. I had one for thirteen years and apparently they were so good they had still not updated the design (at all) when I sold it at 150k miles. Should have kept it in storage until 2022 or so; would have been an appreciating asset.
  7. AlanSubie4Life

    FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

    The Solterra is truly keeping with Subaru’s philosophy of yesterday’s technology today. Subaru has really outdone themselves. They achieved the pinnacle with the original WRX and ceased all further vehicle development, with a brief foray into cutting-edge paper head gasket technology and...
  8. AlanSubie4Life

    FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

    I only buy good EVs. That is why I have the Spark EV (best EV ever made, it terms of utility and value proposition - it was so good I had to buy at the end of my $50/mo or free or whatever lease on one of them), and the 2018 Model 3. They also both fit mountain bikes. Though “fit” is a...
  9. AlanSubie4Life

    FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

    Yeah I have no doubt about that being a minimum requirement. As I have made clear, I am ambivalent about potential for future iterations. But adamant about current hardware.
  10. AlanSubie4Life

    FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

    Yeah they will be keeping it under wraps until the big reveal. Buy now or be priced out forever.
  11. AlanSubie4Life

    FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

    It’s not happening (level 3 current hardware). Of course, no one can deny you your dreams, no matter how much they may try to tear them apart.
  12. AlanSubie4Life

    FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

    It seems that only @aronth5 and @Daniel in SD think that we’ll be getting Level 3. And maybe @JulienW ? @Daniel in SD is really placing all his hopes in the Robotaxi Retrofit Reveal on 8/8. There are 8 letters after R in the alphabet; this is a significant fact many miss. Anyway it’s...
  13. AlanSubie4Life

    FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

    Yeah that is exactly what I said. “Won’t fix having to use the accelerator.” However, there were multiple complaints, and manual mode fixes some of them (namely being able to reduce speed, which was a specific complaint). Advisable to read posts before disagreeing. We’ve been through this...
  14. AlanSubie4Life

    FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

    Manual mode! Won’t fix having to use the accelerator but you can certainly cap the speed using the scroll wheels. And no you cannot speed it up with the scroll wheels unless it is currently capped which is unusual (though possible). Added bonus (or detriment): it’s 100% identical to what...
  15. AlanSubie4Life

    FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

    Have you tried manual mode, lol? (Manual mode is identical to auto mode, as has been proven here, except for set speed offset.) Agreed it is terrible. The lane drifting is vaguely invigorating and amazingly consistent. I let it do a near kiss of a center divider right here at 50mph (usually...
  16. AlanSubie4Life

    FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

    Interesting, @Daniel in SD thinks Robotaxis are imminent (within next 5-10 years).
  17. AlanSubie4Life

    FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

    No one with current vehicles is getting Robotaxis. People just need to get over it and stop dreaming silly dreams.
  18. AlanSubie4Life

    FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

    Even I (who thinks most people use their turn signals, because laws and such and general decency and desire to not get in an accident) believe that every driver has failed to use their turn signal where required at least once in their driving career.
  19. AlanSubie4Life

    Help: Horrific battery draining while parked in long term parking structure - I've got 12 days to go

    I suppose it is possible it started insanely hot and most of this was Cabin Overheat in the 10 hours it was active. In any case, very easy to tell if there is any question about it at the time.
  20. AlanSubie4Life

    FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

    I’ve paid attention to this before (recently!) and it is a remarkably high percentage of people who use turn signals when needed to signal their intent to turn. Certainly way more than half! Just good drivers in my area I guess. I am curious what the actual numbers are.
  21. AlanSubie4Life

    FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

    Evidence needed. People like to make this claim; I have never seen it backed up. Obviously 100% of drivers don’t use their turn signals sometimes. But that’s of course not the claim being made here.
  22. AlanSubie4Life

    Help: Horrific battery draining while parked in long term parking structure - I've got 12 days to go

    The energy screen should give an idea of what is happening. If it is essentially uncategorized there could be an issue. But probably something mundane.
  23. AlanSubie4Life

    Help: Horrific battery draining while parked in long term parking structure - I've got 12 days to go

    This seems poor given the setup. What happened, according to the screen?
  24. AlanSubie4Life

    FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

    Not enough GPUs? I have no idea at all.
  25. AlanSubie4Life

    FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

    Yeah just wonder what happens when they do all that and get a super sharp 50/50. I guess eventually it becomes a very rare event. Who knows. I can’t imagine it working any time soon given the extremely primitive nature of AI right now. Got a decade or two probably to really be good...
  26. AlanSubie4Life

    What is the Tesla rated wH/mi for 2024 Model Y Long Range?

    Seen no reports yet from vehicles. 2024 was 304 last I heard. It’s just a constant. Can be completely unrelated to battery capacity.
  27. AlanSubie4Life

    FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

    Might have been looking too fast.
  28. AlanSubie4Life

    Range Loss Over Time, What Can Be Expected, Efficiency, How to Maintain Battery Health

    That is definitely fine to do. And the batteries have held up well regardless, so far. Some people just like to minimize their capacity loss to maximize utility of the vehicle - for those very long stretches that you talk about it's nice to not have to worry about a Supercharger stop. And...
  29. AlanSubie4Life

    FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

    The blue dot is an interesting touch to add real legitimacy. Maybe AI suggested that.
  30. AlanSubie4Life

    Model 3 SR+ LFP Battery Range, Degradation, etc Discussion

    Yeah sounded like he could get away with 60%.
  31. AlanSubie4Life

    Highland Range

    The projected range at 0% will be zero. It is just the way it works. I understand your confusion but it does not work the logical way you would expect. If you drive at the efficiency it says, you don’t get the miles to 0% that it projects. If you go through the math you’ll see it all works...
  32. AlanSubie4Life

    Highland Range

    To be clear, the consumption screen calculation, which you are using, and which I worked with a couple of other people to post here, INCLUDES THE BUFFER. It's detailed in the sticky as one of the caveats. It is confusing as you'd think the energy screen (which shows allegedly when you'd get to...
  33. AlanSubie4Life

    FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

    The dried remains of the young grasshopper are probably causing the intermittent wipes! I think they'd pick one or the other most of the time and stick to it! You just decide and then go. Obviously there are situations where you'd wobble, but that's usually because the inputs change (not...
  34. AlanSubie4Life

    Highland Range

    That's incorrect. You'd have to supply information to support that. Remember that some apps report usable that actually includes the buffer, which is not usable by the typical definition. It's relatively easy to figure out how much usable (above 0%) you have if you do a long drive. Or you...
  35. AlanSubie4Life

    Highland Range

    No. LG 78-79kWh when new, including the 4.5% buffer below 0% (~3.6kWh when new); usable is 75.4kWh when new, assuming pack capacity of 79kWh (they often start a bit low). All very straightforward. Just have to know the full pack capacity and then everything follows. Panasonic pack starts...
  36. AlanSubie4Life

    FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

    We’ll see. When it is perfectly trained, what does it do when it has two exactly equally correct scenarios? That is what I am curious about. Yes of course, as addressed in my post. Need to be able to change. Yes. Really? Significantly? As much as it will likely do without further...
  37. AlanSubie4Life

    AP/FSD related crashes

    There's definitely clickbait strategies as well. That could be just as much of an explanation. But in the end the strategy to counter has to be the same. The misperception of risks is not limited to Tesla. Existence does not mean a strategy or a bias.
  38. AlanSubie4Life

    AP/FSD related crashes

    It's not really an interesting example of anything. It's just garbage. Never ascribe to malice that which can be adequately explained by incompetence. The vast majority of "hit pieces" out there on Tesla are based on straight-up ignorance of Tesla and their software. And then the...
  39. AlanSubie4Life

    Model 3 SR+ LFP Battery Range, Degradation, etc Discussion

    Your car is doing great and it sounds like the cool temperatures are doing it good. You can continue to get good results by keeping it below 55% most of the time, which sounds like it would be easy for you to accomplish. If you barely use it you could consider even lower but given the long...
  40. AlanSubie4Life

    8 month old battery degradation

    Yeah, that's my point. Anyway you are using the wrong number, that is the reason - you were in average mode but you used 291km, the displayed current rated range, which is wrong. That's the wrong math. This should be 174Wh/km*261km/0.59 = 76.8kWh. 306mi or 493km That seems fine regardless...
  41. AlanSubie4Life

    8 month old battery degradation

    So that's 493km, or 306 miles. You don't show the 291 or what mode the energy screen is in. But anyway, you don't need to. I guess providing it would allow us to calculate the energy or the constant, though. As mentioned you need to know the EPA range of your car. Since you have a MIC...
  42. AlanSubie4Life

    Range Loss Over Time, What Can Be Expected, Efficiency, How to Maintain Battery Health

    These data points don't make a lot of sense for a 2019. 267 is low for a 5-year-old LR Dual Motor (though certainly possible). That's 65.4kWh, which is down 16%. What doesn't make sense is that after four years the vehicle was down 7.5%, and now after 5 years it's down 16%. That's...
  43. AlanSubie4Life

    8 month old battery degradation

    Be sure not to use instantaneous. Make sure you're using the "average" selection.
  44. AlanSubie4Life

    FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

    I wonder if end2end has any ability to make plans and stick to them (unless other circumstances dictate they can't be stuck to) or whether that is an inherent weakness of the approach? Very interesting. I wonder how many years it will take to develop the right approach which just takes care...
  45. AlanSubie4Life

    Model 3 SR+ LFP Battery Range, Degradation, etc Discussion

    48.6kWh as expected. 7.4% capacity loss from initial ~52.5kWh. Excellent. (214Wh/mi*193mi/0.85 = 48.6kWh) 200rmi/0.9 = 222.2 rated miles, which is 92.6% of 240. (Also 7.4% loss, as expected.) These are really excellent results for this vehicle. Continue to keep it low and cold.
  46. AlanSubie4Life

    FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

    As you know, I am pretty familiar with this stuff. We know how it goes. True, as I made clear. We know it won’t be. But how is that relevant? They’re all the same basically - we know that! 12.3.x, 12.4, 12.5 - they just seem to be feature adds for the most part. Already seems to be...
  47. AlanSubie4Life

    FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

    Well if so they have not addressed speed control. (9:55, 11:15). Or decision wobble (11:40), (16:45). That dog won’t hunt. Disappointing. IF this is actually 12.4: Looks like it is going to be a few more years. No rapid progress. Hopefully 12.4 will be better. And we should ignore 12.5...
  48. AlanSubie4Life

    FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

    Feel free to address the issue in my original post. At any time. While the post is not clear, when I say “traffic on the freeway,” I mean stop-and-go or slow-moving traffic. I’m curious if AP is better. And hopefully v12 could do better but does not seem likely, since it clearly seems to...
  49. AlanSubie4Life

    FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

    Yes. That is what I keep on saying. Valid subset. Nope Yes. My words accurately described that I was talking about traffic on the freeway, and lacked sufficient specificity without further clarification. Nope Anyway this is all quite ridiculous. The point is I would like it to stop...
  50. AlanSubie4Life

    FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

    Incorrect. This is what I am talking about! And how is it relevant anyway? My complaint was about something very specific. By definition my story cannot change, as my description of the issue was 100% consistent throughout (stop-and-go traffic is a consistent subset of traffic). As I...