-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
-
On today's TMC Podcast, we ask the question "What is the Tesla Cybercab?". Join us on YouTube live at 1PM and participate in the chat.
bonnie
I play a nice person on twitter.
I'm hoping. But I have no way of knowing.
- - - Updated - - -
I'm going to invite you all to meet me at City Beach across from the factory, so you can check out the X first-hand. And I'll put one of you in charge of making sure my new baby stays looking shiny new.
Merrill
Merrill
In
Between your dreaming of your Model X can you update us on the Roseville Supercharger progress. Thanks
dirkhh
Middle-aged Member
Math is hard. I should go shopping. It was only 17 months. I'll still keep my "in a year" estimate.
Math is hard. I should go shopping. It was only 17 months. I'll still keep my "in a year" estimate.
Time flies when you're driving a Telsa!
dirkhh
Middle-aged Member
Which somewhat agrees with the article referenced in this thread I posted earlier this year.
TheStreet.com believes the Model X will not hit volume production until 9/2015
I actually think Tesla will be able to ramp up significantly faster for Model X. The major components are pretty much from the Model S which I think is a huge component of production. I think the delay is more due to fulfilling model s demand that they didn't expect to be that much that fast.
Aside from that, I know Tesla was really trying to get the cameras instead of mirrors so it's possible they could be waiting for news on the legislative front before ramp up in 2015. I do think they will deliver the first cars in Q4 though and that we'll see a driveable beta in summer.
Aside from that, I know Tesla was really trying to get the cameras instead of mirrors so it's possible they could be waiting for news on the legislative front before ramp up in 2015. I do think they will deliver the first cars in Q4 though and that we'll see a driveable beta in summer.
Totally agree. Since they are supply constrained and have a bigger 'hit' on their hands with the S, I believe they are trying to maximize their sales/profits on the S and while there is pressure to bring out the X there is much less so in the environment where they have sold more (reservations) than they can make. Ramp up from Panasonic that is suppose to be in 2nd half of 2014 will bring us an X. While we may not see an X delivered in 2014 I believe that TM will start producing them in 2014 with Founder/Sig deliveries in Q1 2015 and if quality control looks good a ramp up that will include some late Q1 2015 production reservations at least produced, if not delivered.
At some level they probably wouldn't want the long reservation list if battery supply is leading to overall production constraints. They would rather have people but the S so 1. Near term revenues and 2. Customers not getting frustrated with the long wait
bonnie
I play a nice person on twitter.
I don't think the current delay is because of Model S demand or because of cameras vs. mirrors. I believe it is because of a quality problem on the floor necessitating a redo by engineering. Plain and simple. And when that's resolved, we'll see the X.
EarlyAdopter
Active Member
I believe the delay is due to greater than expected demand for the Model S coupled with unexpected supply constraints from Panasonic (both expectations from Tesla's point of view 2 years ago).
They just don't have the cells to do both vehicles until end of this year/early next when Panasonic gets those mothballed factories up and running. Pushing the Model X out any sooner will just impact supply for both vehicles and upset everyone.
They just don't have the cells to do both vehicles until end of this year/early next when Panasonic gets those mothballed factories up and running. Pushing the Model X out any sooner will just impact supply for both vehicles and upset everyone.
engle
Member
I struck up a conversation with a person in a Tesla jacket at the Fremont Whole Foods (where I live -- in Fremont but not in the Whole Foods!) during their lunch break a few weeks ago when we were both waiting for our takeout made-to-order sandwiches to be made. Turns out they work at the factory. Volunteered I'm a very early production reservation holder for the "X" and can't wait to get my vehicle. Why is it taking so long? The person said: "we're constantly getting calls to make a new version of this part or that part". I asked if Elon is a perfectionist and the employee smiled and laughed. I saw the same employee earlier this week at Whole Foods during lunchtime, but didn't talk to them. I'll try to shop there during lunch hours to see if I run into them again, and report whatever tidbits I manage to learn each time.
PS. Meanwhile, personally I'm at a decision point with my 2012 ML 350 Bluetec business lease. It expires May 27th, but Daimler will let me extend it only for another 6 months at the same payment, afterwards I would definitely have to turn it in. I know I won't get my X by Nov. 27th, (I'm hoping ~1/30/2015 but could use the tax credit this year), so what to do then? What did S owners do in similar situations while waiting to receive their S?
Another option I thought of is to return Daimler's ML now, and buy a used Benz as a placeholder until I get my X, at which time I'll sell it, since I don't think I'll ever want to drive an ICE again when I'm not travelling. I(If I'd known it would have taken this long to get an X in the beginning I would have just bought an S when I received the "Time to Build Your Model S" email on 8/27/2012. Probably could have driven it about 2.5 years then sold it and gotten an X, which is more practical for me.)
From my Feb. 10, 2012 reservation P83 confirmation email:
"MODEL X: WHAT COMES NEXT?
We expect to begin production of Model X in late 2013, ramping up deliveries in early 2014. Model X will be priced comparable to a similarly equipped Model S. More details will be announced as production nears."
Tesla offered Roadster loaner/leases I believe. I suppose they could with the S, but doesn't seem likely they will.
Probably buying something used is the way to go. We really don't know exactly when the Model X will come out so typing up a lease could be problematic. Just don't but anything too new since the value will likely fall farther than a much older car.
Are there no month to month leases (although much more expensive) that one can do?
Are there no month to month leases (although much more expensive) that one can do?
dirkhh
Middle-aged Member
I went with a 24 months lease since my estimates of Tesla time tend to be less optimistic than others here. So I have a car until early 2016... By then even in my worst case scenario I should have the Model X
i hope you are right...but there literally has been no news for a while now, and most expected a beta version out by now. I think its very unlikely anyone will receive theirs in 2014 and probably more towards mid 2015. depending on ramp up..and where you are on reservation list, i could easily see significant deliveries only beginning in early 2016.
dirkhh
Middle-aged Member
I have P6218. My rough guess is that they will start shipping Founders and Signatures through the first half of 2015 and will start ramping up production during the second half. If you assume a gradual ramp from about 100 cars per week as they start making production cars to about 600 cars a week six months later (that seems quite doable) that would create a production run of more than 9000 Model X in the second half of 2015. Even with Sigs outside of the US and start of production cars outside of the US by Q1/16 I should get my turn. Which is what my planning was based on
I realize I am in the minority here and could be wrong...we are all speculating. I still feel that we will see a beta 3rd Q this year (at the latest) and production starting in Q4 with first deliveries in Q1 ( founders and NA Sigs) and PXs in Q2 with fast ramp up. Not willing to 'bet the farm' but willing to bet a beer :wink:
Edit: This prediction may put me in the same category as the person putting the crazy papers on S windshields in Cali.:biggrin:
Edit: This prediction may put me in the same category as the person putting the crazy papers on S windshields in Cali.:biggrin:
Similar threads
