Will Model 3 reservations have a noticeable impact on new car sales for the next 2yrs

[EinSV]

Given the dramatic figures in the link below (also contained in Tesla's shareholder letter) it seems highly likely that in addition to BEVs/PHEVs at least 3-Series/A4/C-class sales in the U.S. will take a hit after the reveal, if they are not already.

Tesla's Model S is the Best-Selling Luxury Sedan in America. By a Lot. - Fortune

 

[gregincal]

I think that once the Model 3 is actually released and assuming it's as good as we hope it will impact 3-series/A4/C-class sales. I think people in those markets will need to test drive it to be convinced, though.

 

[SebastianR]

I currently drive an Audi. The Model S is (unfortunately) too wide for the two gates I have to deal with when I park. So I have high hopes that the Model 3 will be narrow enough for me. I contacted Audi about 1.5 years ago and asked them for a full BEV. They told me they don't have one and don't plan on making one and that I really don't want one either.

I can't wait to put the money for Model 3 down. I will promptly forward the proof of payment to Audi and tell them they lost me as a customer for life. Not that I'm particularly vengeful but I felt horrible when they told me that in fact I don't want a BEV and that I should shut up and buy a regular Audi car.

 

[EVNow]

In a world of 7.5 billion people... wherein perhaps 4.5 billion are Female... if only one of them is 'the one' for me... then she statistically does not exist.
;-)

Exactly. That's why I don't believe that BS, either.

So yeah, that isn't going to happen in the next two years.

But that was the question, isn't it ?

This is not to say 3 (or Bolt or Leaf 2 or Ioniq BEV) won't steal any Camry sales. They (hopefully) will. But number of people waiting to buy any of those instead of Camry etc for two years is small enough that we'll never be able to separate that from noise in any sales figure variation we'll see in the future.

Only enthusiasts wait a long time to get a particular car - most people buy a car when they need to (or think they need to). Once that event happens and they make a decision to buy, they just go and buy within a short period of time.

 

[SebastianR]

This is not to say 3 (or Bolt or Leaf 2 or Ioniq BEV) won't steal any Camry sales. They (hopefully) will. But number of people waiting to buy any of those instead of Camry etc for two years is small enough that we'll never be able to separate that from noise in any sales figure variation we'll see in the future.

Only enthusiasts wait a long time to get a particular car - most people buy a car when they need to (or think they need to). Once that event happens and they make a decision to buy, they just go and buy within a short period of time.

I largely agree. However if you look into typical car markets, they are over-saturated. Now take a cooling macro-economic outlook, take some fear about oil going through the roof and the risk of not being allowed to drive your ICE car in smog situations and you may have a storm at your hand. Of course this will not happen in all over the world. But here in DK, there will be a car-free Sunday in Copenhagen later this year (due to air quality issues), Oslo will soon be with Diesel restrictions, Italy already saw driving restrictions this year. Look at the stock market: It doesn't take much more to make postponing buying a new car an attractive proposition. Then there is this really cool, usable and affordable Tesla coming along. May be worth checking out, don't ya think? (- note, I don't say this is how it will play out, this is how it could play out).