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Will AWD Model S make current P85 and P85+ seem slow by comparison?

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Maybe that Tesla store manager had been spending a lot of time on Facebook and TMC...

I'm not saying that anything postulated in this thread is impossible, some of it seems quite possible. I'm saying that one should be careful about leaping to conclusions based on unsubstantiated information from "sources" other than official Tesla statements or Elon going on the record in an interview or blog post.


I think I know where the rumors might have originated. Musk did say that in 2015, the Tesla Model S will get a slight range bump which interestingly enough is around same time as predictions of a possible AWD Model S. He did not mention by how much though.

As for the number, my guess it originated from 3.1Ah cells and 4.0Ah cells available from Panasonic.
 
Agree, but it's nice to exchange views on this very interesting matter.

While speculation can be a fun way to waste time it can also have negative effects. People doing research are likely to delay their purchase decision in favor of the next super duper iteration that is rumored to be just around the corner exacerbating the already limited information that comes from Tesla.

Speculate, but verify.
 
I've been thinking about the possibility of the AWD Model S and what that would entail speed wise and battery wise for a while now, and I think I've come up with something that makes sense and is consistent with everything that we know so far.

First, in the fourth quarter '13 earnings call Elon said that the cadence of Model S updates would be a substantially redone model every 6 years or so with an intermediate update every three years. This would mean that a '15 Model S would be a perfect time for such an intermediate update, while the true next generation Model S would come in '18 near the release of the Gen 3. Therefore, I think it is safe to assume that with all the rumors of AWD floating around, as well as other things like improve seat comfort as an option, that the '15 model will indeed have AWD as at least an option and will represent this intermediate update.

As for the speed of the Performance AWD, a previous poster was correct in saying that currently the Model S is limited in total horsepower by the maximum power output of the battery. Therefore a larger battery would be necessary for a significantly faster AWD option. This does not mean that Tesla will need a pack with physically more cells however, as battery technology has progressed significantly since the original Model S was released. As we know the current Model S uses Panasonic 3.1 Ah, 3.6V 18650 cells in the 85 kWH model. However, Panasonic now should have 4.0 Ah, 3.4V 18650 cells available. You can find more information on these batteries here if you can speak Japanese. This would mean that a drop in replacement would yield a battery pack of approximately 105 kWH which lends credence to the battery pack in the 100-110 kWh range. This in turn could lead to the higher power necessary to drive a significantly more powerful AWD Model S.

Seeking alpha did an analysis on such a vehicle, albeit assuming that the increase in performance could be accomplished with a 85 kWH pack. They could that the Model S was initially designed to accept the drive unit from the electric RAV as a front drive unit in conjugation with the 362hp S85 motor as the rear drive unit. They found that such a configuration would have a 0-60 time of 3.2 seconds, and around 516hp.

It's also worth noting that the Model X site says that there will be 60kWh and 85kWh versions of the models X available with AWD in addition to a performance model. This necessarily means that Tesla must be working on 3 separate AWD drive trains, irrespective of the capacity of the performance model battery pack. Also, at the Model X introduction event Elon said that the non performance AWD 85kWH model would have a 0-60 time of ~4.4s, on par with that of the current performance P85. This makes me think that the planned 85AWD drive train uses the S60 RWD motor as the rear drive unit. Assuming that all of the models have the same front/rear power split this gives a total power output of ~430 hp, or roughly the same as the current P85. Taking the same analogy to the 60AWD drive train it seems likely that it may use the original roadster motor as the rear drive unit for a total power output of ~363 hp or around the same as the current S85.

Not that this is all just an first approximation based on what has been said by Tesla and what seems technically reasonable. There may be all kinds of market forces that prevent this from happening.

So to summarize the best case scenario on the AWD front for the Model S would be that AWD is offered as standard or as an option on all capacity levels, and that the performance model may get a higher capacity battery to run the more powerful drive train. Giving us a ~1s reduction of 0-60 time on all AWD models as compared to RWD models.

P110 AWD 516hp 3.2s 0-60
S85 AWD 430hp 4.2s 0-60
S60 AWD 363hp 5.2s 0-60
 
A lot of interesting predictions but if you look at Porsche 911 the S and 4S they have exactly the same 0-60 time on dry surfaces. Somehow on the straight line the gain from directing some power to the front wheels may not be as much as you think . Cornering capability is another matter of course.
 
A lot of interesting predictions but if you look at Porsche 911 the S and 4S they have exactly the same 0-60 time on dry surfaces. Somehow on the straight line the gain from directing some power to the front wheels may not be as much as you think . Cornering capability is another matter of course.
The US site says 4.2 for the 4S and 4.3 for S. But I think the reason it is close is because at 400hp/325 lb-ft, the traction limit of the rear wheels for the S have not been reached yet (plus the additional power losses in a traditional AWD system also has to be factored in).

AWD will only be an advantage when the launch torque goes beyond what the rear tires can handle.
 
But I think the reason it is close is because at 400hp/325 lb-ft, the traction limit of the rear wheels for the S have not been reached yet (plus the additional power losses in a traditional AWD system also has to be factored in).
Model S does not have 400hp at launch. Motor shaft torque alone is irrelevant as it is always multiplied by gearbox.

MSP has 9,73:1 reduction gearbox giving 3162 lb-ft wheel torque at launch. It has open differential meaning almost all this torque gets applied to the wheel with less grip. SC applies brake to stop spin and transfer some of the torque to the wheel with more grip.
Assuming perfect conditions both rear wheels get 1580 lb-ft of torque. Wheel diameter is 2.31 feet and radius is 1,15 feet so this torque results in 1374 pounds of 'propulsion force per wheel'.
Model S weighs 4700 lbs and has about 48:52 weight distribution.
This gives 1220 pounds of weight per one rear wheel and 1374/1220 = 1,12 as minimum friction coefficient for tires not to spin. Maybe some racing slicks provide such traction, normal civil tires do not.
When car accelerates there is some 'weight transfer' to rear wheels, let's be optimistic and say 50% of front weight loads the rear wheels - 25:75.
This gives 684/1762 = 0,78 as minimum friction coefficient for tires not to spin.

According to this source :
Jones and Childers report coefficients of friction of about 0.7 for dry roads and 0.4 for wet roads.

These number represent "static friction" i.e. before tire slips. After it slips it drops significantly.
So, asphalt:car tire friction of 0.7 is already typicaly lower than minimum required for tires not to brake loose.
Consider also that we live in nonperfect conditions, asphalt being rarely really clean and uniform, tires being unevenly worn etc.
It is enough for a small patch of dirt for tires to brake loose and spin and much of that launch torque gets wasted. In theese conditions AWD will help.

MSP is battery power limited only above 40 mph and below 70 mph. Below 40 and above 70 it could be faster with more grip and stronger or additional motor.
So, MPS is already heavily "grip challlenged". This is also why different sources report different 0-60 results.
 
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. As we know the current Model S uses Panasonic 3.1 Ah, 3.6V 18650 cells in the 85 kWH model.

This illustrates one of the problems with this thread, in addition to folks posting speculation from un-referenced sources as if they were authoritative: people are predicating what Tesla must be doing on facts that are demonstrably untrue.

The number of cells is known. The packs have been opened, and the cells sheets making up one of the 16 sheets in an 85kWh pack have been counted. The pictures have been posted here.

There are 7,104 cells in a pack. Using the above cell specifications does not yield 85kWh of energy.

What's more, diagnostic screens indicating pack voltage disagree with the above assertion.
 
Looping back to P85 value v. AWD P

Circling back to the original question: what do you think happens to the view of P85 when AWD gets launched?

With the delay on the X Tesla has been under pressure to revamp the S and there are definite indicators AWD S is coming yet this yr. debate timing as you like, the real question is: what does that do to resale values of P85. Especially if AWD85 and P85 have similar performance or if AWD P85 is even just at 3.5sec in 0-60 (being conservative)
 
Model S does not have 400hp at launch. Motor shaft torque alone is irrelevant as it is always multiplied by gearbox.
Perhaps I should not just have said "S". What I was referring to is the Carrera S, not the Model S. I'm speculating on why the Carrera S and Carrera 4S have similar 0-60 despite one having AWD and one not having AWD. I'm not saying that the Model S doesn't reach its traction limit (for the record, I think that it does and that AWD will improve its 0-60).

I'm well aware the Carrera doesn't have 400hp at launch and that motor shaft torque is multiplied, but didn't mention it as I assume that was a given.
 
Sorry for bad reading on my part.
As for Porches ... that demands a separate analysis. What is the weight of both cars, what kind of AWD is it, what kind of launch control is used on S and 4S, what is the transmission etc.

what do you think happens to the view of P85 when AWD gets launched?
Nothing much ... just new PAWD has better performance then old P.
Will SAWD be better than P? Probably not.
 
Circling back to the original question: what do you think happens to the view of P85 when AWD gets launched?

With the delay on the X Tesla has been under pressure to revamp the S and there are definite indicators AWD S is coming yet this yr. debate timing as you like, the real question is: what does that do to resale values of P85. Especially if AWD85 and P85 have similar performance or if AWD P85 is even just at 3.5sec in 0-60 (being conservative)
I think most folks are more interested in AWD for winter driving. I rarely floor my P85 as it is (just don't feel the need), and the squirrely rear end dancing around isn't something I relish either. In Colorado, the value of all RWD S's will fall since AWD always commands a premium. In Texas, Florida or California the effect will be much less since the only benefit will be a very slight performance improvement.
 
Sorry for bad reading on my part.
As for Porches ... that demands a separate analysis. What is the weight of both cars, what kind of AWD is it, what kind of launch control is used on S and 4S, what is the transmission etc.


Nothing much ... just new PAWD has better performance then old P.
Will SAWD be better than P? Probably not.

Assuming rear drive units stay the same as today in all versions, I am speculating that they will A, limit SAWD power to make it slower than P. Or B, increase the battery power to make P and PAWD faster than SAWD. MS 40 had 235hp, meaning 85 could have 499 hp or more. P would then get 470 hp since that is max for the P drive unit. PAWD would get 499 or more. SAWD is unknown if we don't know what the front drive unit will be.
 
Circling back to the original question: what do you think happens to the view of P85 when AWD gets launched?

With the delay on the X Tesla has been under pressure to revamp the S and there are definite indicators AWD S is coming yet this yr. debate timing as you like, the real question is: what does that do to resale values of P85. Especially if AWD85 and P85 have similar performance or if AWD P85 is even just at 3.5sec in 0-60 (being conservative)

IMHO, nothing will happen to the resale value of the P85. Used Teslas compete not with new Teslas, but first and foremost with other cars in the same used price range. Would Someone choosing between spending $75k on a used P85 or a used Panamera S change their decision because of a new S85 AWD is available for 100K or more?
 
Assuming rear drive units stay the same as today in all versions, I am speculating that they will A, limit SAWD power to make it slower than P. Or B, increase the battery power to make P and PAWD faster than SAWD. MS 40 had 235hp, meaning 85 could have 499 hp or more. P would then get 470 hp since that is max for the P drive unit. PAWD would get 499 or more. SAWD is unknown if we don't know what the front drive unit will be.
AFAIK Model S power is battery limited. So adding an other motor doesn't add power.