When will the entire Tesla auto line up transition fully to 4680?

[Discoducky]

When will the entire Tesla auto line up transition fully to 4680?

Discussion appreciated!

My 2 cents: As an investor and former vehicle engineer, I'm in the camp that all Tesla vehicles will transition to 4680 in 2022/2023. This allows legacy form factors to be used for grid storage and simplifies vehicle production.

 

[brianhn1]

I believe when the Model 3 production line is converted to 4680 is when the entire line up is finally converted over. 8-10 years from initial release is likely in a roadmap for redesign. So 2025-2027.

 

[garrett5688]

it’s unlikely that a single form factor is optimized for all use cases so… never

 

[Doggydogworld]

Your poll needs another choice. Tesla's mid-range cars (e.g. 3/Y SR) will continue to transition to prismatic LFP. Even 300 mile Semi, the one fleet buyers want, should end up with prismatic LFP. And entry level Cybertruck, if they ever build it.

 

[Buckminster]

BYD Blade Batteries

 

[MC3OZ]

BYD Blade Batteries

I agree some 3rd party prismatic LFP batteries might be used for longer.

My vote was end of 2024, that is when I think Model S/X will stop uding 18650.
2170 will probably phased out by the end of 2023.

There are long term benefits in fewer from factors, but not many short term benefits.

Tesla in house production of LFP might not be 4680. I think it will be cylindrical but could be a larger or smaller form factor. I don't know which woild be optimal.

 

[Buckminster]

Some ideas here:
Gigafactory locations and products

 

[EinSV]

Very hard to predict -- given the extreme demand that's likely for 4680s and shortage of cells industry-wide I'm not sure 100% of the vehicle lineup will switch over to 4680s by the time Tesla adopts whatever form factor replaces the 4680s as Tesla's go-to.