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Tesla aims to produce 50K Tesla Semi in 2024, could become one of US’ largest truck makers

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Tesla aims to produce 50K Tesla Semi in 2024, could become one of US’ largest truck makers-TESLARATI

If there were one upcoming product that Tesla truly discussed during the Q3 2022 earnings call, it would be the Tesla Semi. Elon Musk and Tesla executives shared a lot of interesting tidbits of information about the Class 8 all-electric truck, such as its battery range when it’s fully loaded and the expected date of its first deliveries.

While answering questions from retail and institutional investors during the Q&A session, Musk mentioned that the Semi is already in early production. And since Tesla typically takes about a year to ramp up production of a new product, the company is currently looking to produce 50,000 Tesla Semi units per year in 2024.


“We’ll be ramping up Semi production through next year. As I think everyone knows at this point, it takes about a year to ramp up production. So, we expect to see significant — we’re tentatively aiming for 50,000 units in 2024 for Tesla Semi in North America. And obviously, we’ll expand beyond North America. And these would sell — I don’t want to say the exact prices, but they’re much more than a passenger vehicle,” Musk said.

While a production target of 50,000 per year sounds conservative for a company like Tesla — which produces 20,500 vehicles per week in Gigafactory Shanghai this Q4 2022 — such an output would already be incredibly impressive. As could be seen in data from Statista, the US Class 8 trucking market is currently dominated by Freightliner, which sold over 71,000 units in 2020 and about 100,000 units in 2019.

Following Freightliner in the No. 2 spot is Kenworth, which typically sells less than 50,000 Class 8 trucks per year. In 2019, for example, Kenworth sold about 42,000 units, and in 2020, the truck maker sold over 30,000 units. Assuming that Kenworth maintains its pace and Tesla succeeds in producing and potentially selling 50,000 Tesla Semi per year in 2024, it would make the EV maker the US’ second largest Class 8 truck maker.

That’s quite a feat, especially if one were to consider the fact that the Tesla Semi would likely be limited by the company’s battery supply in the near future. Elon Musk even noted during the Q3 2022 earnings call that the vehicle’s initial production would not involve the company’s 4680 battery cells. Once Tesla’s 4680 project hits its pace and production of the Semi gets optimized, it would not be surprising if the all-electric truck becomes the best-selling Class 8 hauler in the United States in the coming years.

 
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Unless Tesla can produce different versions of their Trucks after a couple of years with custom versions of the Semi built to customer specs. They will also need to allow third party customizations of the Semi without saying we won't work on your Truck and your warranty is void. They may take some market share but not all of it. Here are different types of Freightliners and Customizations you can get. Will Tesla ever build a severe duty version of the Semi?
 
Unless Tesla can produce different versions of their Trucks after a couple of years with custom versions of the Semi built to customer specs. They will also need to allow third party customizations of the Semi without saying we won't work on your Truck and your warranty is void. They may take some market share but not all of it. Here are different types of Freightliners and Customizations you can get. Will Tesla ever build a severe duty version of the Semi?
Semi won't need all the engine and transmission variations of ICE.
 
No it won't but what about different body and chassis configurations. The Freightliner has approximately 8 different chassis with different configurations. Then there is the aftermarket . Will Tesla build a high clearance truck 4x4 Semi

I guess the need for variants depends on the size of the day cab full 80K GCVWR market. Sleeper cabs need a charging network. The current semi looks like it could hold a small bed but not the small apartment drivers have for many days on the road. It will be interesting to see exactly how the truck is configurable.

I would like to see a new cost analysis of Tesla Semi compared to traditional. Is the cost savings so good in some markets that it will obsolete current trucks?
 
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What would it cost Tesla to build out the Mega Charger network? I'm curious what the ROI is for the mega charger? The Semi specs state a 200,000 dollar fuel savings over 3 years. What is the average annual fuel cost of a Diesel Day cab? What will be the out of warranty cost for battery replacement?
 
What would it cost Tesla to build out the Mega Charger network? I'm curious what the ROI is for the mega charger? The Semi specs state a 200,000 dollar fuel savings over 3 years. What is the average annual fuel cost of a Diesel Day cab? What will be the out of warranty cost for battery replacement?

If the savings per year are half was Tesla claims then they probably don't need to build out a charging network. Charging infrastructure should evolve as they did with diesel. Whether existing truck stops can evolve into charging stations probably depends on where they sit on the grid.

Battery replacement costs also don't matter if the semi pays for itself in two years.

This is finally very interesting. The obvious first users are the one's doing round trips from the warehouse. Or distribution to their own stores.

Will the trucks themselves last past battery replacements at 300K miles and motor replacement at a million miles? Or will the trucks be beat up enough at 500K miles that it makes sense to scrap the vehicle? The internet says that the average class 8 truck goes 60K miles per year and lasts eight years.
 
I am confused by the opportunity cost of the Semi. How do they motivate this vs making more high value stuff such as cars?

The Semi $/kWh is so much lower than their other products, at least with the announced prices of 150 and 180k. Even if battery manufacturing hypothetically was free, they would still have to pay for raw materials. Semi $/ton is a fraction of other Tesla products.

Now with the inflation reduction act it may finally make sense.
 
Unless Tesla can produce different versions of their Trucks after a couple of years with custom versions of the Semi built to customer specs. They will also need to allow third party customizations of the Semi without saying we won't work on your Truck and your warranty is void. They may take some market share but not all of it. Here are different types of Freightliners and Customizations you can get. Will Tesla ever build a severe duty version of the Semi?

Just like with cars, Tesla isn't trying to replace every Semi configuration that exists. They are leaving opportunity for other OEMs to fill in the lower volume segments, and trying to serve the higher volume segments themselves.
 
I am confused by the opportunity cost of the Semi. How do they motivate this vs making more high value stuff such as cars?

The Semi $/kWh is so much lower than their other products, at least with the announced prices of 150 and 180k. Even if battery manufacturing hypothetically was free, they would still have to pay for raw materials. Semi $/ton is a fraction of other Tesla products.

Now with the inflation reduction act it may finally make sense.
Perhaps because Tesla isn't capital constrained and the ROI on semi is good enough to make the investment. Tesla needs more vehicle models to sell to continue to grow and the semi is ready to go. The model 2 may be hard to make profitable and may just be a China car. The Cybertruck may be 4680 dependent.

They may also have planned revenue from fleet management software and charging equipment from semi sales. But I have thought about that Tesla can't capture much of the large savings from semi use.

It's unclear at this point how semi is differentiated from its class 8 competitors.
 
I am confused by the opportunity cost of the Semi. How do they motivate this vs making more high value stuff such as cars?
Two main reasons:
  1. They are no longer cell limited. They have more cells available than can be used in the factories they have.
  2. The Semi is actually better for the mission than the cars. Here is a slide from a presentation that they did:
1666645567129.png


Of course that shows that the shorter range Semi would be even better for the mission, but I am guessing that they have more cell supply than could be used by their current Semi production line in the 300 mile range variant.
 
Two main reasons:
  1. They are no longer cell limited. They have more cells available than can be used in the factories they have.
  2. The Semi is actually better for the mission than the cars. Here is a slide from a presentation that they did:
View attachment 867147

Of course that shows that the shorter range Semi would be even better for the mission, but I am guessing that they have more cell supply than could be used by their current Semi production line in the 300 mile range variant.
That was an excellent graph, thank you. Although it is labeled annual CO2 offset. In order to make the CO2 difference between the bars as dramatic for the lifetime of each kWh, the Semi battery need to last as long as that sedan, in calendar years. Another reason to aim for that million mile battery.

The 500 mile even if not as CO2 efficient in the sense of the graph is important for the mission to turn the doubters Around. I attended a presentation by the city of Orlando the other day regarding their clean vehicle fleets. They stated that the battery tech is not there for heavy BEV trucks, so we will be looking at other means of propulsion for those. What a perfect reason to get the 500 mile out there.
 
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I am confused by the opportunity cost of the Semi. How do they motivate this vs making more high value stuff such as cars?
Keep in mind Tesla’s mission statement “to accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy.” Maybe the Semi isn’t as high of margins as their passenger cars, but the Semi in production helps with that mission.

Tesla announcing production of up to 50,000 Semis per year is a major shot across the bow of established semi manufacturers. That is more production than all Class 8 OEMs except Freightliner. Tesla has zero sales prior to this so all sales will eat away at existing OEM market share.

All major OEMs have some available or planned Class 8 EV options, but they have to see Tesla as a threat. Tesla’s volumes are so much higher across all of their vehicles that their cost to produce the Semi is likely significantly less. For instance Mack sells about 18,000 Class 8 trucks per year. How can they compete in the EV space? Compared to Tesla, Mack has limited engineering resources. If you were spending hundreds of thousands of dollars on a new EV Class 8, would you rather buy from THE proven EV manufacturer Tesla, or newcomer Mack?
 
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Just like with cars, Tesla isn't trying to replace every Semi configuration that exists.
You are so right. Tesla will not try to make every product any manufacturer offers. They don’t need to. When Tesla semi‘s are out in the field and all the bs about what it can’t do is destroyed, we’ll see other semi sales plummet. Just like in the car world. Companies will want our truck so bad they will delay replacement until they can get one. Freightliner and others don’t have our technology and skill at manufacturing.
 
Keep in mind Tesla’s mission statement “to accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy.” Maybe the Semi isn’t as high of margins as their passenger cars, but the Semi in production helps with that mission.
I am well aware of Tesla's mission but so far Tesla has demonstrated that it prioritizes high margin products to finance their own growth over the mission.
A clear example of this is that Tesla Energy has a tiny fraction of the revenue relative to the auto business. It's also clear that the purpose of growth is to fulfill the mission in an even bigger way with more impact in the future, which I personally agree with, btw.

Energy is low margin compared to cars and thus got lower priority. Semi is lower yet. Since we are hearing that Tesla is not cell constrained, I instead looked at $/kg. Take a look at the red cells in this table. How does this fit in with a high margin strategy? Or has Tesla now reached the point where the present day mission fulfillment takes priority over growth?
1666716428255.png



Tesla announcing production of up to 50,000 Semis per year is a major shot across the bow of established semi manufacturers. That is more production than all Class 8 OEMs except Freightliner. Tesla has zero sales prior to this so all sales will eat away at existing OEM market share.

All major OEMs have some available or planned Class 8 EV options, but they have to see Tesla as a threat. Tesla’s volumes are so much higher across all of their vehicles that their cost to produce the Semi is likely significantly less. For instance Mack sells about 18,000 Class 8 trucks per year. How can they compete in the EV space? Compared to Tesla, Mack has limited engineering resources. If you were spending hundreds of thousands of dollars on a new EV Class 8, would you rather buy from THE proven EV manufacturer Tesla, or newcomer Mack?
Mack is part of the Volvo group so I am sure they share engineering resources but yes, your overall point is valid.
 
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How many battery cells would be needed to build 50K semis a year
Short answer is a crap-ton.

Assuming ~18 Wh per 2170 cell, a 600 kWh battery size for the 300 mile version and 1,000 kWh for the 500 mile version, and a 50/50 mix of the two versions = ~ 2.2 billion cells per year for 50k semis. Up to about 2.8 billion if all production is the 500 mile version.

Tesla needs to produce or buy cells on the order of 6 million / day, or 250,000 / hour, or 4,182 / minute, or 69.7 / second to keep up with production! Give or take.
 
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