When will it be dumb to buy a new ICE ?

[igotzzoom]

If we get serious about global warming, the most likely solution for aircraft for the next 20-50 years will be some sort of carbon neutral liquid fuel. (The US Military has been exploring variations of Biodiesel for aircraft use with fairly good success - it's main challenge is staying fluid at stratospheric temperatures.)

Research is already happening in this area...Audi makes diesel out of water and air

 

[NC-3]

Are you including all the time sinks that the ICE car costs you? Oil changes? Refueling? Replacing the brakes? Counting 20 minutes only one long trip, which is presumably more rare than refueling the car sounds wrong.

Thank you kindly.

I think you are missing the point is about time on a long drive. (Currently we are looking at 40 minutes for an 80% charge versus 5) There is nothing wrong with wanting a faster charge rate, and the next time you are waiting in line at the SC on a long trip, you will be wishing for it also. -also why are you thinking we do not have to replace our brake pads/rotors?

 

[igotzzoom]

I think you are missing the point is about time on a long drive. (Currently we are looking at 40 minutes for an 80% charge versus 5) There is nothing wrong with wanting a faster charge rate, and the next time you are waiting in line at the SC on a long trip, you will be wishing for it also. -also why are you thinking we do not have to replace our brake pads/rotors?

The regenerative braking effect on EVs potentially significantly increases the effective service life on friction brakes.

 

[HanSolo]

Unlikely. Extraction and refinery costs are going up (and aren't currently under $1). Reserves are going down. There are other uses for the resource.

Thank you kindly.

Exactly. There are so many useful things we can do with oil and oil products other than burning it up. However gasoline and diesel make an interesting case because of how much energy you can get out of it. That said I will own a 707hp Dodge Hellcat one day as EV's will never replace that good American V8 sound. ICE engines will never go away as they will have their uses somewhere. Even if I keep my reservation, I will keep my conventional gasoline car because you cannot beat the convenience for those times when I will be on the road and need the ability to literally slip into a service station and refuel in 5 minutes or less. The reality though is that we better figure out what to do with our electrical grid and our generation limitations before EV's get too popular. We have enough problems as is with not having enough generation or grid failures when stressed to the limit on those very hot or cold days when electricity use is maxed out. With gas being so cheap right now, I feel like we are missing on an opportunity to fund infrastructure and research by adding a temporary increase to the federal taxes. Much easier and less painful for the economy to do it now at $2 a gallon rather than when it goes back up to $4. Our roads in Cincinnati are horrific as they are falling apart.

 

[lklundin]

Research is already happening in this area...Audi makes diesel out of water and air

That only makes sense for someone who wants to continue selling ICE's.

The problem is in the quoted article:
"This process requires temperatures of over 800 degrees Celsius (1,472 Fahrenheit) and is powered by green energy such as solar or wind power.

OK, so instead of the loss of energy by using perfectly good electricity for the purpose of reversing a chemical reaction to produce fuel, trucking it out to fuel stations, so inefficient ICE's can burn it, why not just transmit the electricity via the existing infrastructure out to BEV's that can charge their batteries and use the electricity more efficiently?

Granted, a lot of CO2 will be spent in replacing all ICE's with BEV's (over a few decades), but if this replacement does not happen at a forced pace (i.e. retiring ICE's way too soon), then this argument has less value.

Time will tell, but I hope this inefficient technology will not make it.

 

[SebastianR]

I believe for Diesel cars the time is now: with cities struggling to meet NOx pollution thresholds we will see more and more cities kicking-out Diesel cars. And who wants to own a car that you're not allowed to drive?

Funnily enough a lot of German's don't see to want to hear that. I had a lot of conversations where I heard a "if they don't want me with my car, then I don't want to go to that city" reaction. Still it won't help.

EDIT: It is not just Diesels: if today we already discuss to forbid selling ICE cars in 2025 in some places, it is time to not buy a new ICE: Netherlands looks to ban all non-electric cars by 2025

 

[Topher]

The reality though is that we better figure out what to do with our electrical grid and our generation limitations before EV's get too popular. We have enough problems as is with not having enough generation or grid failures when stressed to the limit on those very hot or cold days when electricity use is maxed out.

One of the solutions to our grid problems is more electric cars. Adding 22 Million kWh of storage to the grid will do wonders for peak load problems. Not to mention load balancing overnight.

With gas being so cheap right now, I feel like we are missing on an opportunity to fund infrastructure and research by adding a temporary increase to the federal taxes. Much easier and less painful for the economy to do it now at $2 a gallon rather than when it goes back up to $4.

Agreed.

Thank you kindly.

 

[Drivin]

It is always dumb to buy things that depreciate so quickly especially when you can easily buy used.
That goes for ICE as well as EV.

 

[HanSolo]

One of the solutions to our grid problems is more electric cars. Adding 22 Million kWh of storage to the grid will do wonders for peak load problems. Not to mention load balancing overnight.



Agreed.

Thank you kindly.

I understand about load balancing overnight particularly for regions using coal and nuclear generation, but how would it help our grid to add more electric cars and increase load especially during peak? Our local utility is already going around and installing shut off devices on central air units so that they can shut off people's a/c systems during peak load on hot days.

Adding storage can be expensive.

 

[Topher]

I think you are missing the point is about time on a long drive. (Currently we are looking at 40 minutes for an 80% charge versus 5)

Not missing the point. Just pointing out that you are missing all those other time wasters. ICE drivers refuel for 10 minutes or so every 500 miles. BEV drivers plug in every night (1 minute), and charge 20 more minutes every 200 miles on the occasional long journey.
From this it is easy to calculate how occasional long journeys need to be to make BEVs waste less time.
I drive about 20,000 miles per year, get my oil changed twice a year (1 hour), so (500/20,000 * 10) + 120 < (365 + x * 20) So, I would need to take 8 trips over 200 miles per year using just those two items to offset charging time.

There is nothing wrong with wanting a faster charge rate, and the next time you are waiting in line at the SC on a long trip, you will be wishing for it also.

Of course, why would you think anyone would want slower charging?

also why are you thinking we do not have to replace our brake pads/rotors?

Regen braking greatly reduces the wear on brakes. If you are driving a car with regen already, nevermind.

Thank you kindly.

 

[Drivin]

Are you including all the time sinks that the ICE car costs you? Oil changes? Refueling? Replacing the brakes? Counting 20 minutes only one long trip, which is presumably more rare than refueling the car sounds wrong.

Thank you kindly.

Cars now go 10k miles before an oil change and jiffy lube has that done in 10 minutes.
5 minutes to refuel a car once a week? Pick up a hot coffee and donut while fueling on the way to work. Big deal.
Replacing brake pads every three years, drop it off at Wheel Works, go to Trader Joes next door and pick up some food. big woop.

How long does it take to do the yearly service intervals for the S where they check out the car and replace the windshield wipers?

Modern cars just don't have the time sink disadvantage that some people seem to hope they have.

Your welcome kindly.

 

[Topher]

I understand about load balancing overnight particularly for regions using coal and nuclear generation, but how would it help our grid to add more electric cars and increase load especially during peak? Our local utility is already going around and installing shut off devices on central air units so that they can shut off people's a/c systems during peak load on hot days. Adding storage can be expensive.

Cars ARE storage. 22 Million kWh is what the grid gets FOR FREE with 400,000 55 kWh Model ≡s.

Thank you kindly.

 

[Topher]

Modern cars just don't have the time sink disadvantage that some people seem to hope they have.

Yup, that's my hope, that my car is a big time sink.

Plug in for 20-30 minutes on long trips while I stretch, get food, and use the bathroom. Big woop as you say.
Hopefully Tesla will put one at the NH liquor store, I will buy booze while my car gets charged!

Thank you kindly.

 

[Saghost]

Cars ARE storage. 22 Million kWh is what the grid gets FOR FREE with 400,000 55 kWh Model ≡s.

Thank you kindly.

One of the really interesting things about Tesla cars in particular in this situation is the combination of an always live web connection and over the air firmware updating. In principle, this means that Tesla could create a firmware update for smart charging that would allow the utility (after getting agreement from you, of course, presumably in exchange for a reduce electric rate) to adjust the charge rate of each car individually in real time (or at least within a couple seconds of real time,) in response to changes in neighborhood loads or overall power available from renewables.

V2G is a great idea with a number of teething problems, but you can get ~70% of the benefits from utility managed smart charging - and for Teslas, you don't need any additional hardware to make that happen - just an agreement with the utility and a firmware update.

 

[GSP]

Drivin,

If you have access to home charging, you really ought to try an EV or PHEV for a while. The advantages over ICE and hybrid cars don't sound like much on paper, but after you live with them it is surprisingly hard to go back to an ICE car.

GSP

P.S. It may be many years or decades before used EVs drive down prices of used ICE cars. However, with the EV and PHEV options available today, I consider it a dumb waste of time and money to ever buy another ICE car for myself.

 

[Garlan Garner]

No more ICE purchases for me.

I'm all in Electric. Especially after I receive my M3.

Electric is going to do nothing but improve from here.

 

[HanSolo]

Yup, that's my hope, that my car is a big time sink.

Plug in for 20-30 minutes on long trips while I stretch, get food, and use the bathroom. Big woop as you say.
Hopefully Tesla will put one at the NH liquor store, I will buy booze while my car gets charged!

Thank you kindly.

I have driven across this country and have a bladder made of T304 stainless. The M3 is still not there yet as it means that realistically you will be hitting up a charger every 100-120 miles to be on the safe side. If driving in extreme heat or cold, those would be even shorter. 20-30 minutes every 90 minutes can really add up and be inconvenient. It takes 5-6 hours to get to Chicago from Cincinnati due to insane I65 congestion. That means that you have just added potentially 90 extra minutes to a one way trip and 180 extra minutes for the round trip. This is why ICE's will be around for decades more. Then you have all of those extra EV's potentially charging during peak usage hours when the grid is already maxed out, especially during the hot vacation season.

This is not much of an issue because EV's are still mostly a luxury and novelty item. Once good extended range EV's start hitting the $20-30k price range of a Ford Focus or Toyota Camry, we will have a entirely new issue to face as EV's are more likely to be used to drive everywhere and not just locally. We will just have to wait and see how it plays out.

 

[Jopo43]

Now

 

[N5329K]

Yes and no. That's a very generalized summary of what happened to the horse when it's far more complex. Horses were also at one time primarily used for war. Those horses exist today through descendants but are extremely rare, especially in their original conformation. The Lipizzaner for instance was primarily a war horse. Less than 4,000 of them exist in the world today in their pure form and only thanks to General Patton who saved the last remaining herd of broodmares and stallions by transporting them to safety during the war. There exists only a couple of places in the world that still teaches unmounted and mounted war movements. The only reason the breed and those teachings still exist is because of people who have dedicated their lives to preserving them. Those people and their skills continue to dwindle and I expect in the not to distant future they and the horses will disappear forever.

Draft horses were primarily used for farming until the industrial revolution. When tractors came into existence they decimated several draft breeds some going extinct. One of the breeds that barely survived was the Percheron. Another extremely rare breed of horse that only exists today because of dedicated people, but even so there is limited reasons (Amish, Old Order Mennonite farming, carriage showing) for such a horse. As a result the breed's conformation has drastically changed and today's Percheron looks nothing like the original Percheron.

I can give hundreds of examples and even talk about today's horse world and how it's been vastly changed to a 'this is a luxury item and no longer a need for survival item (except of course for that small population of people that do in fact still need a horse to live), and how that's caused hundreds of thousands of horses to be slaughtered, but let's move onto the cars.

How many Eleanors exist today? We go to museums to see that one of one or two cars in existence car.

So yes and no to horses haven't disappeared because they are no longer used primarily as transportation and thus today's ICE cars won't disappear because they are no longer used primarily as transportation. It's a lot more complex than that and has vast economical and social implications.

I probably wasn't clear. My point was only this: horses haven't vanished from the scene just because we no longer use them for everyday transportation. Neither will ICE cars vanish. We'll just use them in different ways, and for reasons other than everyday transportation. Like horses, they'll be kept for pleasure, for racing, for the occasional nostalgic journey.
And the world will be a better place for it.
Robin

 

[ElectricTundra]

Charge time should be a non-issue for many or most people. For my daily routine charging requires no more than 10 seconds per day. Stops for gas averaged about 9 minutes per stop and about once per week. Yes, this is offset by supercharging on long trips but that is not something we've found to be a problem. Many stops are also food stops so effectively cost nothing time wise. For most of any others that are over 10 minutes then we'll relax in a local coffee place. Including the coffee and other charging stops but not food stops it's been about 1 hour per 900 miles (our typical day of driving).

There's a big bonus in those coffee stops as they make the entire trip seem less tiring and stressful compared to when we'd do the same trip in an ICE and be massively focused on time and getting as many miles done as fast as possible.

Our car is rated at 245 miles per charge so a 215 mile Model 3 might require one more stop per 1,000 miles. We're not expecting it to be an issue.