I saw those. No doubt Tesla is changing the algorithm occasionally -they told us about this in 5.x. That said, I doubt Tesla has been modifying the algorithm to decrease and increase it in correlation with temperature in St. Louis.
Rated range is fairly reliable for me. I'm currently in Florida after a 1,000+ mile drive over the past couple of days. My range reduction was consistent with what was displayed, taking into account the Wh/mile that I was getting in the rain (e.g., 360 Wh/mile is 120 percent reduction from rated miles for each real mile). I plugged in at two Superchargers with only 15 miles remaining, so I am not suffering from overly optimistic battery range in the car. In fact, I was still confidently driving 70 despite the car warning me to drive below 40 to make my destination.
If that proves to hold steady, then the only variables that can change over time is the efficiency of the car. In my case, after 70k miles, my efficiency has seemingly gotten better (2015 average since July is 308, past years has been 320+). That could be offset by software and performance changes.