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What to expect in Canadian Cold?

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Taking delivery of a MSP soon, just wondering what to expect when winter rolls around and if folk who have already braved our winters might be able to give me an idea.

Specifically, wondering two things, but both within the context of say, -20c to -40c:

- What you've noticed on range. From the few things I could find, seems I can expect range to drop even 20% but those were in say, -15c. What happens if I'm out in the worst case, -40c?

- If there's an effect on drain while sitting in one place. Again I could find some discussion about leaving the car at an airport for a few days, but again, that was in relatively mild conditions. If I drive around a city for a day, leaving the car outside, again say in -40c... am I walking back to a potentially dead battery?

Thanks in advance for any experiences / insight.
 
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Hey there. I'm in southern Michigan so not quite as cold, but still experience range loss. In the worst case scenario, heat cranked, going 80mph on the highway, I would expect 50% range loss (but it's usually not that bad). Most of the time, it's closer to 20%-30% range loss with highway driving. Slowing helps dramatically.

When sitting for long periods of time, 2 things will happen. The battery will thermally manage itself to an extent in order to not get too cold. This takes energy, but shouldn't be more than a few % per day. Energy used may increase over longer durations. When you first start driving, some of your cold battery will be "unavailable." The car will say you have, for example, 100 miles of range. As you drive and warm the battery, this cold part will be unlocked and your range will increase.

Also, Tesla says "Do not expose Model S to ambient temperatures above 140° F (60° C) or below -22° F (-30° C) for more than 24 hours at a time."
 
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In terms of efficiency, here's my graph after three Quebec winters in a 2020 LR AWD model 3 (no heat pump).
1654866208418.png

I don't have many long drives in winter so it's not perfect but it will give an idea nonetheless. Shorter drives will be worse. As you can see, even my warm drives don't get the rated efficiency as I drive ~120kph on the highway.
Major factors to explain this are: air is more dense, heating the cabin takes significant energy, you run winter tires (more rolling resistance), pushing through water or snow on the road adds rolling resistance.

As DirtyTesla explains, a very cold battery will have a portion of its energy unavailable (snowflake, blue portion) but that will come back as it warms up. When cold, the available power is also reduced. I've had mornings (say -20C) where I'd have under 100kW of power available (under 130hp) on my 400+hp car. You can solve that by preconditioning if you don't like it but there's nothing bad about it, the car restricts power so you don't hurt the battery.
Similarly, you will have no regen under 0C and it comes back as the battery warms up. The next software update is supposed to apply the brakes for you in that case, we'll see how that goes.
Supercharging a cold battery is SLOW. Don't attempt to supercharge in the morning without preconditioning or driving for a while first. Make sure you navigate to the supercharger in winter so the car has time to warm the battery, WELL in advance.

EDIT: So yeah, start with assuming you lose 50% and see how it goes. I also suggest playing with ABetterRoutePlanner's advanced settings to see how they affect consumption on some trips. Use it as a learning tool, you don't need it for every drive.
 
The main thing that I've noticed, even in somewhat cool conditions, it that the indicated range will fall quite sharply in the early part of a long drive. If you drive say 50km you might see the indicated range fall by say 100km. This can be quite alarming and one might conclude that you'll won't reach your destination. As noted in other posts, this relates to battery power being temporarily unavailable, being used to warm the battery and heat the cabin. As you travel further the battery consumption will fall to more normal levels and the indicated range loss will not be as concerning (presuming that you don't stop and allow the battery and cabin get cold again).
 
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In terms of efficiency, here's my graph after three Quebec winters in a 2020 LR AWD model 3 (no heat pump).
View attachment 814944
I don't have many long drives in winter so it's not perfect but it will give an idea nonetheless. Shorter drives will be worse. As you can see, even my warm drives don't get the rated efficiency as I drive ~120kph on the highway.
Major factors to explain this are: air is more dense, heating the cabin takes significant energy, you run winter tires (more rolling resistance), pushing through water or snow on the road adds rolling resistance.

As DirtyTesla explains, a very cold battery will have a portion of its energy unavailable (snowflake, blue portion) but that will come back as it warms up. When cold, the available power is also reduced. I've had mornings (say -20C) where I'd have under 100kW of power available (under 130hp) on my 400+hp car. You can solve that by preconditioning if you don't like it but there's nothing bad about it, the car restricts power so you don't hurt the battery.
Similarly, you will have no regen under 0C and it comes back as the battery warms up. The next software update is supposed to apply the brakes for you in that case, we'll see how that goes.
Supercharging a cold battery is SLOW. Don't attempt to supercharge in the morning without preconditioning or driving for a while first. Make sure you navigate to the supercharger in winter so the car has time to warm the battery, WELL in advance.

EDIT: So yeah, start with assuming you lose 50% and see how it goes. I also suggest playing with ABetterRoutePlanner's advanced settings to see how they affect consumption on some trips. Use it as a learning tool, you don't need it for every drive.
To confirm, is your chart in F or C? I’m in Maine and looking to get a used MY or M3. I haven’t been too picky about year as I plan on buying from the Teslas used cars which come with a small additional warranty.
Do you feel like, or have experience, comparing the resistance heat to the heat pump in terms of range lost?
 
Celcius, the official temperature unit north of the border (and almost everywhere else too :) ). I don't have personal experience with heat pumps, my car is resistive. I've heard people around here that changed to a heat pump model to facilitate certain trips but that's because we're a bit lacking in the supercharging department. In most of the USA there are enough superchargers that it wouldn't be a big enough difference to warrant switching models just for that.