What is a 6yo Model S worth with 150K miles?

[dhanson865]

In 10 years, it will probably be worth the breakup value. That's what big luxury cars typically do, and I see no reason why the Model S should be any different. The big question in this is, does the battery have a core value? Or, alternatively, would you have to pay to dispose of it?

If you have to pay to dispose of the battery, then the car is going to be worth quite a bit less in 10 years, but either way it will be less than $10k at best.

I was going to discuss technological improvements which I think are coming over the next ten years and why I think that would drive the price down, and then I realized that it really doesn't matter-- it will never go below breakup value, and it will probably end up there either way.

EDIT: You said 6 years, so still under warranty, probably a bit more. More like $20k. I think the dropoff will be steep once the 8 year powertrain warranty expires.

A used 2011 Leaf with no warranty and 50 mile usable range is worth $9000 right now. So long as that Model S can do 100+ miles at 10 years old it'll be well worth more than than any econobox 3 or 4 cylinder car and worth more than many other used EVs that are still tooling around by then.

On top of that if Tesla offers refurb or upgrade packs to restore range it'll be worth even more than that.

Heck even a used Prius holds up value more than you expect out of the Model S.

All and all I'd say your opinion of the value for a used car is too harsh.

 

[johnnyS]

So if the model S is in good shape at 150K and still has 220 miles of range what is the competition? It still will be a cool car and may be better than any other electric cars on the market. The real competition may be model 3. If a new model 3 is about the same price as a used model S, which do you buy? Is that like choosing between a used 911 and a new boxster? Since a couple of owners have crossed the 100,000 mile threshold last summer, I think by year 6 or year 8 there will be some very high mileage cars.

 

[donv]

A 2011 Leaf will be 6 years old in 2017... unless my calendar is broken, we haven't gotten there yet. It won't be 10 years old until 2021.

As a percentage of value, cheap cars hold their value much better than expensive luxury cars. The Model S isn't really comparable to a Leaf, and more than a Mercedes S Class is comparable to a Nissan Versa. Sure, the S Class and the Versa both have gas engines and four wheels, but the comparison pretty much stops there.

A used 2011 Leaf with no warranty and 50 mile usable range is worth $9000 right now. So long as that Model S can do 100+ miles at 10 years old it'll be well worth more than than any econobox 3 or 4 cylinder car and worth more than many other used EVs that are still tooling around by then.

On top of that if Tesla offers refurb or upgrade packs to restore range it'll be worth even more than that.

Heck even a used Prius holds up value more than you expect out of the Model S.

All and all I'd say your opinion of the value for a used car is too harsh.

 

[StephenM]

In 10 years, it will probably be worth the breakup value. That's what big luxury cars typically do, and I see no reason why the Model S should be any different. The big question in this is, does the battery have a core value? Or, alternatively, would you have to pay to dispose of it?

If you have to pay to dispose of the battery, then the car is going to be worth quite a bit less in 10 years, but either way it will be less than $10k at best.

I was going to discuss technological improvements which I think are coming over the next ten years and why I think that would drive the price down, and then I realized that it really doesn't matter-- it will never go below breakup value, and it will probably end up there either way.

EDIT: You said 6 years, so still under warranty, probably a bit more. More like $20k. I think the dropoff will be steep once the 8 year powertrain warranty expires.

I'm much less worried about the battery. Long after its usefulness as a car battery it will still be very useful for home energy storage. Don't forget that the batteries are modular, and Elon has already stated that "of course the model S battery packs will be upgrade able over time, just not yet" (it's only been out 3 years after all). I think it will be a core swap, making used Ss a more valuable commodity. The thing that is yet unclear, is how the rest of the car will hold up. Most have the air suspension and that's not gonna be inexpensive to maintain. Like I said before, I think the Model S has all the makings of a classic car, and I'm confident that it will hold its value siginificantly better than its German counterparts (which isn't saying much).

 

[donv]

That's the big question, IMO. If a 10 year old battery has a positive value, that will make a big difference in the value of the car. On the other hand, if it has a big disposal cost attached to it and no useful value, that would be bad. I don't know enough about these batteries to know which is correct.

I do think that the Model S will hold it's value better up until 8 years, due to the warranty. The reason I wouldn't consider it to be a "classic" is because the production numbers are so high. There will probably be more than 100,000 Model Ss built before a significant refresh, and that's a lot of cars of a single model.

I'm much less worried about the battery. Long after its usefulness as a car battery it will still be very useful for home energy storage. Don't forget that the batteries are modular, and Elon has already stated that "of course the model S battery packs will be upgrade able over time, just not yet" (it's only been out 3 years after all). I think it will be a core swap, making used Ss a more valuable commodity. The thing that is yet unclear, is how the rest of the car will hold up. Most have the air suspension and that's not gonna be inexpensive to maintain. Like I said before, I think the Model S has all the makings of a classic car, and I'm confident that it will hold its value siginificantly better than its German counterparts (which isn't saying much).

 

[bp1000]

Op in UK plan for a 90k p85d to be worth 25-35k after 6 years

its always going to loose you a lot of cash and I can't see it depreciating less than the average car or even less than the best.

Buying through a ltd company helps due to tax incentives and currently low BIK. Is going up a lot though!

 

[dhanson865]

A 2011 Leaf will be 6 years old in 2017... unless my calendar is broken, we haven't gotten there yet. It won't be 10 years old until 2021.

It doesn't matter how old the leaf is. The reason the Leaf lost so much value is because it lost so much range starting with a 24 kWh pack (21.x kWh usable).

A Model S is starting from 60 kWh or 85 kWh so it has a lot more cushion to hold it's price up.

There is a guy on the Leaf forums still driving a 5 bar loser meaning his battery capaicity is below 60% of the original capacity. He'll get a new battery soon but lets think ahead on how useful a Model S would be at 60% capacity. The 60 kWh Model S would still do over 100 miles at 60% and the 85 kWh would still do over 150 miles. A huge improvement in utility vs the hundreds of thousands of used Leafs already on the market (likely to be over a million by the time a Model S gets degraded enough to be a hand me down).

My point is that extra range means you can always find someone with a worse car to sell it to as for them it will be an upgrade.

When you are talking about 10 year old cars you don't just compare it to the competitors it had as a new car. You compare it to whatever is in it's price range at that time.

Go to autotrader.com and search for cars between $9,000 and $10,000 and you'll find everything from newer econoboxes to older SUVs and luxury cars. For those on the lower end of the income spectrum they have a fixed price they can afford to pay for a car and they shop for the nicest ride they can get for that cost.

Your contention was that the Model S would be salvage materiel at some point and it made it sound like to me you don't see the transition it will make from a new market leading car to just another used car. Every time it drops in value another $10,000 a whole new market of used car buyers open up looking to snatch it. So long as it is drivable or fixable the Model S won't drop to nothing.

or correct me if my interpretation of "breakup value" is too harsh.

- - - Updated - - -

That's the big question, IMO. If a 10 year old battery has a positive value, that will make a big difference in the value of the car. On the other hand, if it has a big disposal cost attached to it and no useful value, that would be bad. I don't know enough about these batteries to know which is correct.

I do think that the Model S will hold it's value better up until 8 years, due to the warranty. The reason I wouldn't consider it to be a "classic" is because the production numbers are so high. There will probably be more than 100,000 Model Ss built before a significant refresh, and that's a lot of cars of a single model.

And that is where your off, the battery pack will always have a positive value. Home power storage market will buy up used packs at pretty much any capacity level from a wrecked car even. So there is no reason to ever expect the pack to have negative value.

http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=9&t=17879 his guy in Norway has bought several Leaf packs from wrecks and put them in his home power system
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/show...olar-with-a-Model-S-battery-pack-at-the-heart this guy has several Tesla battery packs and is using them in his home power system

 

[RubberToe]

No one has mentioned the cost of gas as a factor. If gas goes crazy, older EV's will offer better value in the used marketplace. Those that say gas will be cheap the next 5 years just need to look at the last 5.

RT

 

[thegruf]

Op in UK plan for a 90k p85d to be worth 25-35k after 6 years

its always going to loose you a lot of cash and I can't see it depreciating less than the average car or even less than the best.

Buying through a ltd company helps due to tax incentives and currently low BIK. Is going up a lot though!

Am budgetting for £20K, so anything above that is a bonus, buy through company intially for capital allowances, then transfer to private when bik rates get too high.
Over 6 years should cost less than 2x£50K ICE's for 3 years each :smile:

If you think about it a 6yo car would still have 2 years battery/drivetrain waranty, still have 691hp (ICE probably have lost 20%+ of their rated hp by then). What other performance car could you buy for that money. The reason big ICEs (Merc's et al) depreciate like heel is the are a huge liability outside warranty for maintenance/repair costs. This shouldnt be the case with the Tesla as far simpler layout so should be a much safer buy used, therefore prices should hold.

 

[dhrivnak]

If you look at Roadster values we seem to be under 50% of initial value with 6 years and only 30k miles. While this is not terrible depreciation it is far from the great category.

 

[bp1000]

Am budgetting for £20K, so anything above that is a bonus, buy through company intially for capital allowances, then transfer to private when bik rates get too high.
Over 6 years should cost less than 2x£50K ICE's for 3 years each :smile:

If you think about it a 6yo car would still have 2 years battery/drivetrain waranty, still have 691hp (ICE probably have lost 20%+ of their rated hp by then). What other performance car could you buy for that money. The reason big ICEs (Merc's et al) depreciate like heel is the are a huge liability outside warranty for maintenance/repair costs. This shouldnt be the case with the Tesla as far simpler layout so should be a much safer buy used, therefore prices should hold.

Thats my plan too. When glasses guide ranks it low enough I will sell it to myself most definitely before bik gets to 13%, maybe even 9% depending on the value. I don't know if bik is set it stone or whether increases for ulev's can be scrapped? No idea what labours plan for ulev's is, God forbid that wet lettuce gets into power.

I figured it was a relatively speaking, cheap purchase.

all things considered it depreciates at half the rate of the equivalent private purchase, so I came to exactly the same conclusion as you.

 

[thegruf]

... what labours plan for ulev's is, God forbid that wet lettuce gets into power....

all things considered it depreciates at half the rate of the equivalent private purchase, so I came to exactly the same conclusion as you.

Apologies for nit, but doesn't depreciate at half the rate, but low running costs bring it into line.
Anyone got an insurance quote for a P86D yet, nearest I could get was £1K for a P85?

hmmm ... a wet lettuce with tartan strings ... lol not!
My vote is to postpone the election for 5 years, this lot aren't great but the options all infinitely worse.
With the idiotic statements being made by all sides already before the campaigns have even started, this country will end up a complete basket case (if it isnt already).
Weve already got £50K GBP debt on the head of every working person due to decades of incompetent governments, we are paying enough interest on the national debt to build a major new hospital every month and its only going to get worse. Muppets the lot of them.

 

[Johann Koeber]

Tesla Model S ist built to last. All the parts I have seen are really good quality. No shortcuts taken to make them a few cents cheaper. You can see and feel that the engineers are at work, not the penny pinchers. I hope this will stay that way for a long time. There are exceptions, but this is what I feel is the general rule.

So the car will not loose much utility in those 6 years. It will just be outdated by cars with

- more range
- more features

OTOH any car produced by Tesla in 2012-2014 (before the sensors) will be a classic.

Because the cars will last so long, you will see a lot of these vintage cars still on the road in 6, 10 even 15 years. Yes they will look old. Yes there will be more modern cars. But I see no reason not to drive the classic MS for 10-20 years from now, even 30. (OK not taking into account my current age)

Yes I expect automatic driving in that time frame. Hopefully, I get to keep my licence and be allowed to drive my historic classic in 2024 and beyond. Not only the MS, but also the roadster.

I could see the market price for used vintage MS level off somewhere between 40 % and 50 % of the current new price. Miles do not seem to kill the price. Age might, but will be mitigated by the 'classic' factor.

 

[bp1000]

Apologies for nit, but doesn't depreciate at half the rate, but low running costs bring it into line.
Anyone got an insurance quote for a P86D yet, nearest I could get was £1K for a P85?

hmmm ... a wet lettuce with tartan strings ... lol not!
My vote is to postpone the election for 5 years, this lot aren't great but the options all infinitely worse.
With the idiotic statements being made by all sides already before the campaigns have even started, this country will end up a complete basket case (if it isnt already).
Weve already got £50K GBP debt on the head of every working person due to decades of incompetent governments, we are paying enough interest on the national debt to build a major new hospital every month and its only going to get worse. Muppets the lot of them.

Thats ok I was factoring in the overall cost to me. It saves me a lot on my corp tax, its purchased without paying tax on my salary. Usually I could sell it for a trade value to myself which when sold privately is worth more (without cheating the system) you could offset most of the difference in sale and private value to pay the corp tax.

Privately I'd have paid 40% of the cars price in tax and I'd effectively paid full list instead of getting 20k off due to corp tax savings.

for me I didn't factor in the bik running costs as it's cheaper than what I pay to run the 5L v8 I have at mo.

 

[thegruf]

my thoughts exactly

 

[EVNow]

It doesn't matter how old the leaf is. The reason the Leaf lost so much value is because it lost so much range starting with a 24 kWh pack (21.x kWh usable).

One thing you are ignoring is that apart from battery capacity loss in hot climates, Leaf has been extremely reliable. With over 60k Leafs in the US, we hardly hear of any major problems.

 

[dhanson865]

One thing you are ignoring is that apart from battery capacity loss in hot climates, Leaf has been extremely reliable. With over 60k Leafs in the US, we hardly hear of any major problems.

what makes you think I'm ignoring the Leafs reliability record? I've been an active member on Mynissanleaf forum for 4 years now and have read every gritty detail on its issues and have debated Truedelta vs the world many a time.

My 2 day old P85D suddenly died in the middle of an intersection - Page 14 is one example of me quoting Leaf vs Model S reliability in the Leafs favor

I could find other cases but I can't say I've ever ignored the reliability aspect of electric vehicles plus or minus.

I just don't see how high reliability and low cost of ownership explains a used 2012 Leaf SL for sale on a used car lot for $8900 with no damage, nothing unusual about the car pics, carfax, just a good quality used Leaf sitting on a lot with just over 40,000 miles on it.

I think it's a bargain at that price but there are a lot of them coming off lease and the used car prices are plummeting. I plan to pick up a used Leaf or two this year just so I can sell my oldest gas car(s) and use the Leaf(s) as commuters. It just depends on how cheap I can get them as to me getting one or two.

oh and what is this 60k Leafs in US, that number was beat sometime around Aug 2014. It's up to over 75,000 in the US now with over 165,000 worldwide. The US number is growing several thousand per month. See Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard for month by month totals.

 

[cwerdna]

apart from battery capacity loss in hot climates, Leaf has been extremely reliable. With over 60k Leafs in the US, we hardly hear of any major problems.

Yep. This is quite in contrast to what we see with the Model S (e.g. drive unit replacements due to noise (and occasionally failure), sometimes multiple drive units; battery pack replacement due to something failing inside like a contactor, early issues like door handles, etc.)

Leaf battery pack replacements for failure (not degradation) are almost unheard of. Ditto for motor/drivetrain.

Future value will be very hard to predict. It'll be interesting to see if the drive unit noise issues (however they fix them (e.g. shims, replacing drive units, etc.)) will finally be under control. If not, that could scare people away.

 

[bluenation]

EV depreciation is a very important, poorly understood topic. we are so early in the generation.

Except that we're not seeing a lot of decreasing range and cost to replace the battery is going to decrease.

i think we see clear evidence on TMC itself, suggesting otherwise.

I personally disagree with this. Look at the Roadster. There is an upgrade coming out that will increase its range basically doubling it. Unlike an ICE car it is possible to make your BEV car better with age. Although not a guarantee, I can see a time in the not too distance future where Tesla releases a battery upgrade option to 170kWh for $20k -- Yeah that's a good chunk of change but now you have 2x the range with a simple battery swap which would be available for your car. No idea if this will actually happen, but it isn't outside the realm of possibility. If this does become an option, it may decrease the value of an 85kWh Model S, but since the buyer will have the option to upgrade, I don't think it will hit as hard as many think. All depends on a lot of variables that we simply don't have right now.

so an extra 20k depreciation beyond what we already have?

altho tbf, the ROadster, no longer being in production, will be unreliable comparison for predicting S depreciation.

I see where you are going with this; however, its like comparing apples to oranges.

The ICE vehicle has many more moving parts along the drivetrain and if you are looking at it with a more apples to apples comparison, one needs to include the entire drivetrain. This easily makes the cost comparison equal (engine; transmission, axels and associated gear movements; double the complexity if the car is all wheel drive). Then, when we look at the wear parts against each other there is far more risk of added cost and failure to the ICE vehicle. And, in comparison I would say that risk of mechanical failure, increased cost of ownership due to this, and depreciating pressures would be greater in the traditional ICE vehicle....lets not forget that the battery pack can detect and replace individual failing cells for 8 years of ownership.

i've just bolded all the stuff that's pure speculation, backed by insufficient historical evidence.

In general, I don't bother with resale comparisons between vastly different technologies - there are just too many variables. What if there is increased 3rd-world petroleum demand, or a war lowers petroleum supplies, and gas prices triple? I would think an 8-year-old Model S (which probably still has 90% of its original range) would look very attractive, especially if battery supplies are still restrictive and they can't build enough new EVs to meet demand. That's only one example; it could go the other way, but it is just an illustration that we have absolutely no idea what resale values will be.

i agree. which is why it's inaccurate to assume EV depreciation wont be same or worse than a comparable ICE.

 

[Krugerrand]

i think we see clear evidence on TMC itself, suggesting otherwise.

I think not, but feel free to show where on TMC people are complaining about excessive range loss as their Model S's age and increased battery replacement costs. I'm all eyes. I see nothing of the sort and I know GF is being built; there are actual pictures of it. :wink: