What is a 6yo Model S worth with 150K miles?

[StephenM]

i agree. which is why it's inaccurate to assume EV depreciation wont be same or worse than a comparable ICE.

You forgot to add the choice better. You're clearly from the pessimists camp on this, but you also don't know if it might not be better than a typical ICE. I think the ease of upgrade (OTA updates especially) and the support from TM give the Model S an edge over other EV's.

 

[ChadS]

i think we see clear evidence on TMC itself, suggesting otherwise.

Can you expand on that? I am honestly unclear on what you are saying.

According to the battery studies I have seen, the Roadster seems to lose less than 20% after 100k miles, and the Model S (while there is less data) appears to only lose 10% after 100k miles. I think that's pretty good.

As for Model S battery prices, they started at $44k for an 85kWh, right now a store will quote you $25k, and they say in 8 years it will be $12k. I'm very pleased with the way battery prices are going.

 

[ReddyLeaf]

Interesting thoughts all. I'll add my observations from the Leaf perspective. The greatest killer of used value (aka depreciation), is the ability to purchase a better new product for less money. That has been the primary driver for EVs, especially the lower priced ones like the Leaf. Why buy a used Leaf (especially 1st gen 2011 or 2012) unless it is much less than the current new price minus tax credits and incentives? Throw in battery degradation, wear and tear, uncertainty, etc. and you certainly won't want to pay much for the used item. I don't remember the exact prices, but Nissan lowered the MSRP and introduced an additional lower priced model. Subtract off the incentives for new (pick your state): $7500 US, $5000 (GA) or $2500 (CA) or sales tax exemption (WA) and your down more than $10,000 from the $29-35K MSRP. So $20-25K new vs $10-15K used (about 50%). Sounds like a market to me. What would you pay for a 4 yo laptop or cell phone? Again, probably less than 50% new. This is the problem with all technology. As products improve, it pushes the value of the used products down, often to the next level of purchaser. A similar situation is happening with the Tesla. Tesla introduced the "D" and a large number of "P" and "P+" were dumped on the market as price insensitive people upgraded, rapidly (and maybe temporarily) depressing prices. However, even the used loaded Teslas, even at these "reduced" prices ($70-90K) are still a bit steep for many people. I've noticed that the S60 and S80 models don't seem to have been cut by 50% like some of the 85P and 85P+ models. This will eventually change with the next new introduction by Tesla (X, 105 KWh battery, Model 3, auto driving, new tech package, or what ever). Prices will continue to decrease, ratcheting down into the $50K, $40K, $30K and even (gasp) below $10K so that eventually, even the minimum wage worker will be able to afford a Tesla. Look a similar premium sedan vehicles that are currently 20 yo. Many are pretty beat up and sell for less than $5K. It won't happen soon, but I think it will happen when the new 120 KWh, auto driving version with noise canceling is introduced in 2025 or so. The biggest problem with used Teslas will be how can they be repaired/maintained if Tesla doesn't allow it or tries to prevent unauthorized access to the "proprietary" systems (we're seeing the first indications of this now, but what will happen in the future when there are 200,000 used vehicles > 10 yo?

 

[cwerdna]

Interesting thoughts all. I'll add my observations from the Leaf perspective. The greatest killer of used value (aka depreciation), is the ability to purchase a better new product for less money. That has been the primary driver for EVs, especially the lower priced ones like the Leaf. Why buy a used Leaf (especially 1st gen 2011 or 2012) unless it is much less than the current new price minus tax credits and incentives? Throw in battery degradation, wear and tear, uncertainty, etc. and you certainly won't want to pay much for the used item. I don't remember the exact prices, but Nissan lowered the MSRP and introduced an additional lower priced model. Subtract off the incentives for new (pick your state): $7500 US, $5000 (GA) or $2500 (CA) or sales tax exemption (WA) and your down more than $10,000 from the $29-35K MSRP. So $20-25K new vs $10-15K used (about 50%). Sounds like a market to me. What would you pay for a 4 yo laptop or cell phone? Again, probably less than 50% new. This is the problem with all technology.

Yep. And, also Nissan began offering relatively cheap leases as well. (Someone can correct me on this, but I believe '11 Leaf lease deals weren't very good. And, IIRC, '12 deals only got good near the end of that model year.) So, for many, there wasn't much motivation to buy a used Leaf with all of the above downsides when one could lease a new one for pretty cheap.

Yeah, Leaf prices went up w/'12 then back down with the '13. And, with '13, they introduced the cheaper (stripped down) S trim.

2012 Nissan Leaf gets higher price tag, more standard equipment covers the '11 to '12 price jump.

2012 Nissan LEAF Press Kit - Press Kit - Nissan Online Newsroom lists the price too under Pricing ($35,200 for a '12 SV)

2013 Nissan LEAF Press Kit - Nissan Online Newsroom under Pricing lists '13 pricing ($31,820 for a '13 SV while the stripper S trim was $28,800)

And, with Leaf lease returns on the used market, the supply further depresses prices. The '13 was also overall a better car w/some features (some optional) unavailable on the '11 and '12 (e.g. Around View Monitor, optional better stereo, leather, available black interior, available leather) and numerous improvements (e.g. 6 kW on-board charger, B-mode, slightly more trunk room, light at charging inlet, etc.)

 

[thegruf]

Phrase it differently ...

FS Tesla Model S P85D (691hp AWD) one careful owner, 150,000 miles, 6 years old, FSH, 2 years remaining on drivetrain and battery warranty.
Options fitted including Tech Pack, Sunroof, 21 inch turbine design wheels, Next Gen seats,
Price $35K / 25K GBP


Would YOU buy it? :smile:

What else could you get for the money?

 

[cantdecide]

Re leaf: this time last year I was in the leaf market... New 2014s were discounted... So I had the choice of buying a 2011 for 12000 or more, or a brand new one with quick charge for 14600 after incentives. The answer was obvious.
With features like driverless on their was, this is likely to happen to all cars of all manufacturers produced today.

 

[thegruf]

ugh - Leafs, Leafs, Leafs - thought this was a Tesla forum :wink: