After doing more research, I came to this conclusion
I need to account for degradation of the panels (efficiency loss) over time and also like you said it is good to have a few extra panels than you think you may need.
9.6 kW solar panels (I may go up to 10 kW) also provides for a great DC/AC ratio with the standard 7.6 kW inverter on Powerwall+, keeping any potential clipping to a minimum. It is also good to ensure your inverter is at "max capacity" as often as you can or so I've read. My simple understanding is if your inverter is only 7.6 kW, then you will never get more than 7.6 kW delivered to your house at any given time, regardless of how many solar panels you have on your roof - e.g. it is the bottleneck or limiting factor.
I found out Duke Energy requires all solar customers to be on time-of-use billing as of 1/1/23, which furthers the need for 2 Powerwall's. This will give me a whole home backup but will also help ensure I am not pulling from the grid during peak times. The minimum bill is $30 per month (which seems high, ugh) before any net metering credits are applied, but the net metering is not so great at $0.026 cents per kW.
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