Website wait times for delivery change

[ludicrousspeed]

if the demand trend continues it would equate to around 50-55k MS, which I think would result in a very significant miss.

That's where we differ. Their 10Q, which was released just last week, specifies that they plan to deliver 50k vehicles in the 2nd half of the year. On the CC, they predicted leaving Q2 at a 2,000 weekly run rate, 40% of which would be X. That implies that they plan to produce over 20k MX in just the 2nd half of the year.

 

[Perfectlogic]

That's where we differ. Their 10Q, which was released just last week, specifies that they plan to deliver 50k vehicles in the 2nd half of the year. On the CC, they predicted leaving Q2 at a 2,000 weekly run rate, 40% of which would be X. That implies that they plan to produce over 20k MX in just the 2nd half of the year.

They will need to deliver around 50k in the second half of the year to hit guidance so clearly this is the plan unless they want to lower guidance. I just can't see where this boost in demand will come from.

 

[aronth5]

They will need to deliver around 50k in the second half of the year to hit guidance so clearly this is the plan unless they want to lower guidance. I just can't see where this boost in demand will come from.

Just one example but Model S refresh will provide a boost

 

[dennis]

Model S for US delivery moved from June to Late June, while Model X moved to July!

 

[vgrinshpun]

Thanks, Dennis - will update the tables later today.

 

[vgrinshpun]

• MS: Estimated delivery time for NA moved out from June to Late June (36 days after the previous update).
• MS: Estimated delivery time for Europe (excluding Norway and Italy) moved out from Late July to August (16 days after the previous update).
• MS: Estimated delivery time for China moved out from Late August to September (8 days after the previous update).
  
• MS: Estimated delivery time for Hong Kong moved out from Late August to September (8 days after the previous update).
  
• MS: Estimated delivery time for Japan moved out from Late August to September (8 days after the previous update).

As far as claims of constant wait time goes, the snap shot of the wait time table year ago indicates otherwise. As seen from the side-by-side comparison, NA wait time was the same, but wait time for Europe (based on 85, excluding newly introduced D models) increased by two weeks, for Australia - by a month, China and Japan - month and a half. This is consistent with Tesla statement in Q1 2016 shareholders letter that incoming orders in Q1 increased 45% YoY.

In addition to the increased wait time, deliveries in Q1 also grew by 23.6%, from 10,045 in Q1 2015 to 12,420 in Q1 2016.

So much for an assertion of "flat demand" for MS...

As far as projection for the deliveries of MS in 2016, I am not seeing it being 55K as seen by some. If Tesla is able to ramp production to meet the demand the MS deliveries will exceed 62K, if not (i.e. they will be production constrained) the backlog will grow from where it is right now.

Q1....................12,420
Q2-Q4..............50,164 (3 x 1.45 x Q2 2015 = 3 x 1.45 x 11,532 = 50.164)
TOTAL 2015.....62,584

 

[JamesTSLA]

As far as projection for the deliveries of MS in 2016, I am not seeing it being 55K as seen by some. If Tesla is able to ramp production to meet the demand the MS deliveries will exceed 62K, if not (i.e. they will be production constrained) the backlog will grow from where it is right now.
View attachment 177330

What's your estimation for MX delivery in 2016? Not many analysts on street believe even the lowend 80K guidance now. In their mind, MS stays flat ~50K and probably ~25K MX at best. We shall find the answer soon in Q2 delivery report. If TM missed 17K guidance again, then we'll likely see full year guidance cut in Q2 ER.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Welcome to the Forum!

Predicting deliveries of MX is more difficult than MS because we do not have full information on where Tesla is in the ramp. I suspect that there will be much more clarity on this after the Q2 ER. Overall I feel that they will likely exceed the lower threshold of delivery guidance for 2016 - 80K of MS/MX.

In terms of Q2 deliveries, I agree that if they will not meet 17K, meeting 80K goal of 2016 deliveries would be exceedingly hard. I do, however, think that there is a good chance of a surprise in deliveries in Q2, as Tesla, IMO, cleverly sand bagged the delivery guidance. See my posts here and here.

 

[schonelucht]

As far as claims of constant wait time goes, the snap shot of the wait time table year ago indicates otherwise.

Here is my graph for average wait times over a much longer period. As you can see, wait times have not increased. On the contrary the trend is slightly downward overall and radically downward for the US (the continent where waiting time is least influenced by variation in shipping schedules). The longer intercontinental deliveries have more to do with the way Tesla is shipping (it includes a lot more US based rail towards Europe for example) and how it is once again prioritizing quarterly deliveries.

So much for an assertion of "flat demand" for MS...

I feel that's a strawman, at least as argued on this forum. The assertion has never been that there is flat demand. The assertion is that Tesla is 'demand constrained' or put differently that it has enough production capacity to produce every car sold without a growing backlog.

 

[Gerasimental]

Here is my graph for average wait times over a much longer period. As you can see, wait times have not increased. On the contrary the trend is slightly downward overall and radically downward for the US (the continent where waiting time is least influenced by variation in shipping schedules). The longer intercontinental deliveries have more to do with the way Tesla is shipping (it includes a lot more US based rail towards Europe for example) and how it is once again prioritizing quarterly deliveries.

Thanks for maintaining this chart. It's a very helpful complement to vgrin's detailed monthly data.

I would argue that the US is seeing a moderate shortening - from an average of 7 to an average of 5 weeks, while the EU is average flat at 11 weeks and China is seeing a moderate rise - say from 11 to 13 weeks. Considering the delivery rate has roughly doubled over this time-frame, I see this as a very healthy development for a growing company. I see nothing to seriously worry about here - do you?

Edit: these local trends are quite consistent with the markets' relative positions on the famous S curve. The US is beginning to mature as a whole, Europe is probably in it's linear growth phase, and China is just getting going on the exponential part.

 

[dennis]

View attachment 177325

I am seeing July on the ordering page for all Model X variants for US delivery, but the chart still shows June. Are you seeing something different?

 

[vgrinshpun]

I am seeing July on the ordering page for all Model X variants for US delivery, but the chart still shows June. Are you seeing something different?

Yes, see the asterisk in my tables.

 

[FredTMC]

Yes, see the asterisk in my tables.

Hey, thanks for updating your deliveries by country. Much appreciated

 

[schonelucht]

I would argue that the US is seeing a moderate shortening - from an average of 7 to an average of 5 weeks, while the EU is average flat at 11 weeks and China is seeing a moderate rise - say from 11 to 13 weeks. Considering the delivery rate has roughly doubled over this time-frame, I see this as a very healthy development for a growing company. I see nothing to seriously worry about here - do you?

I agree, I see nothing wrong with how demand and production on the model S is evolving. I just don't agree that there has been a serieus production constraint the last 12 months. The Model X is obviously totally different.

 

[JamesTSLA]

The assertion has never been that there is flat demand. The assertion is that Tesla is 'demand constrained' or put differently that it has enough production capacity to produce every car sold without a growing backlog.

Basically you are saying that Tesla is lying about production constrained for Model S all the time? In other words, Tesla should had delivery more model S if there has enough demand.

 

[schonelucht]

Basically you are saying that Tesla is lying about production constrained for Model S all the time?

I am not aware they said such a thing recently?

In other words, Tesla should had delivery more model S if there has enough demand.

Absolutely. We know Tesla has no fear radically scaling up their production when demand surpasses what they planned. It's what they did when model S demand turned out to be much higher than the planned 20k in 2013 and they did it recently as well when it turned out that model 3 demand was an order of magnitude larger than anyone anticipated. If there was demand for another 50% more model S's in their target markets I am convinced they would have found a way to produce those too.

 

[JamesTSLA]

Absolutely. We know Tesla has no fear radically scaling up their production when demand surpasses what they planned. It's what they did when model S demand turned out to be much higher than the planned 20k in 2013 and they did it recently as well when it turned out that model 3 demand was an order of magnitude larger than anyone anticipated. If there was demand for another 50% more model S's in their target markets I am convinced they would have found a way to produce those too.

Totally agreed. You tell the truth for the forum. It's pity many folks here can't see it.

 

[JRP3]

If there was demand for another 50% more model S's in their target markets I am convinced they would have found a way to produce those too.

To meet the demand of the Model 3 they just did a large capital raise. There could be unmet demand for the S and X that isn't large enough to do a massive scale-up and capital raise, so they are just ramping over time as they optimize the production lines they currently have. No one is saying S and X demand is unlimited, just that it's greater than their current run rate. I'm guessing the existing equipment is rated for what they eventually feel steady demand would require, once everything is running smoothly at full speed.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Here is my graph for average wait times over a much longer period. As you can see, wait times have not increased. On the contrary the trend is slightly downward overall and radically downward for the US (the continent where waiting time is least influenced by variation in shipping schedules). The longer intercontinental deliveries have more to do with the way Tesla is shipping (it includes a lot more US based rail towards Europe for example) and how it is once again prioritizing quarterly deliveries.

Hey, Schonelucht, I am trying to reconcile you graph with data, but not being able to do so. For example, according to your graph the US wait time in 2016 ranged from 3.5 to 9 weeks. According to my data, however, the wait time ranged from 4 weeks to 7.6 weeks.

It seems that there is a difference on how we treat data. Here is my assumptions:

• The wait time is accurate only on the day the update was made
• Reference to a month means the 1st of the month (June means June 1)
• Refernce to a "late" month means 16th of the month (Late June means June 16)

Can you clarify your assumptions and how they differ from mine?

 

[vgrinshpun]

I've just completed the analysis of all the data available for the NA wait time, and results are materially different from those on the Schonelucht's chart. The trend line for NA wait time is actually slightly up, not down. This needs to be sorted out as the conclusions drawn based on chart are obviously very different. Hopefully Schonelucht has a chance to comment on this.

My chart and the underlying data series are included below.