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Website wait times for delivery change
- Thread starter Chickenlittle
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Do we have an idea how large the regional batches are in production? Like, do they produce all of the 1000 cars that go to region X in the following month within one week before switching to the next region or do they do this on a day-by day basis or whatever? Thinking about this because if batches are large, that could also explain why one region might be running ahead of another for time from production to delivery at one point, and run behind a shortly after that.
Find the analysis in this thread very interesting, but find the granularity of half months combined with unknown batching might lead to a low resolution of the analysis in the short term. Would be interesting to plot the lead-time (estimated delivery time minus current time) as a function of time for all regions over the years.
Wouln't the Chinese New Year be a holiday anticipated by Tesla? The point is that Tesla projected delivery time takes into account all factors known to Tesla to allocate the production in such a way as to have uniform wait time accross the geographical markets. So i some geographic area experience longer wait time than others, that might indicate that incoming orders from this particular geographic area exceed Tesla expectation.
Just to make it clear, I need to note that this is just my speculation - I believe it is likely that Tesla process is the way I described it, but, of course, do not know this as a fact...
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I do not know the size of regional batches - it would be great if somebody can share more information on this. Regarding the accuracy, I agree, that these speculations should be taken with a grain a salt, but they are not completely meaningless.
As for the duration, note that European deliveries had mostly 1 month longer wait time than Chinese deliveries since August 1, i.e. for more than three months.
The day they switch NA to 2016 deliveries is the day we know they have made guidance because their European sales team must be starting to push back against having to tell customers that a new car is at least 4 months out now. Especially with the restricted stock of CPOs since Denmark is buying up any car that comes up on the second hand market.
Hogfighter
Professional Lurker
Thanks for the update, Vlad.
I'm a little surprised that Tesla is pushing deliveries in Europe/GB back and putting NA deliveries towards the front of the line (that's my assumption, anyway). My only guess as to why is the strength of the US Dollar. But it's great news that demand in Europe is as strong as it is, even with the price increase that they enacted a few months ago.
I'm a little surprised that Tesla is pushing deliveries in Europe/GB back and putting NA deliveries towards the front of the line (that's my assumption, anyway). My only guess as to why is the strength of the US Dollar. But it's great news that demand in Europe is as strong as it is, even with the price increase that they enacted a few months ago.
Vger
Active Member
They have no choice if they want to make their delivery guidance for 4Q15. Cars ordered and built now can only be delivered within NA at this point.
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Probably a good call, but they may not change it in a timely manner precisely because of the reason you state. They may try to hold those cars close to the vest until the delivery announcement ca. Jan. 3.
Another update from Asia - estimated delivery time for Japan changed from February to March. The previous update for Japan was back on November 3, so within about one month the estimated delivery time moved by one month. This might suggest that incoming orders in Japan are in line with Tesla expectations.
On a different note, it is very interesting to observe when the estimated delivery time for US will move into the next year. This week is probably the last week when the car can be ordered on the East Coast and be delivered by the end of the year. Starting from the next week I would imagine that for fresh incoming order to be delivered by the end of the year, it would have to come from CA. So changing estimated US delivery time to the next year by the end of this week would be a very good sign that Tesla got all the orders they need to meet the lower end of the guidance. It does not guarantee that they meet the guidance, as the cars still need to be built and delivered in time, but it will indicate that Tesla has all the orders it needs to shoot for the goal.
If the estimated delivery time does not move to the next year by the end of this week, they can still muster enough orders to set them on track of hitting the guidance, but it will become increasingly difficult for them to have enough orders as time goes by without the change to the estimated delivery in US.
One thing, of course, to keep in mind, and that was discussed in this thread before, is that due to the attempt at pipe emptying in this quarter, i.e. delivering about 2K vehicles more than were built during the quarter, Tesla is trying to feed full (increased) production from essentially about 55% on incoming orders (US) for about the last month and a half of the quarter. If they can pull it off without completely eliminating NA backlog, it would mean that incoming rate of US orders is very healthy.
On a different note, it is very interesting to observe when the estimated delivery time for US will move into the next year. This week is probably the last week when the car can be ordered on the East Coast and be delivered by the end of the year. Starting from the next week I would imagine that for fresh incoming order to be delivered by the end of the year, it would have to come from CA. So changing estimated US delivery time to the next year by the end of this week would be a very good sign that Tesla got all the orders they need to meet the lower end of the guidance. It does not guarantee that they meet the guidance, as the cars still need to be built and delivered in time, but it will indicate that Tesla has all the orders it needs to shoot for the goal.
If the estimated delivery time does not move to the next year by the end of this week, they can still muster enough orders to set them on track of hitting the guidance, but it will become increasingly difficult for them to have enough orders as time goes by without the change to the estimated delivery in US.
One thing, of course, to keep in mind, and that was discussed in this thread before, is that due to the attempt at pipe emptying in this quarter, i.e. delivering about 2K vehicles more than were built during the quarter, Tesla is trying to feed full (increased) production from essentially about 55% on incoming orders (US) for about the last month and a half of the quarter. If they can pull it off without completely eliminating NA backlog, it would mean that incoming rate of US orders is very healthy.
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Last December, P85D delivery estimate changed from late December to Late Feb. on 12/10/14.
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/show...elivery-change?p=837171&viewfull=1#post837171
Until today (12/10/15), the NA model S model delivery estimate still late December. It's tough to say the 17K model S orders already in the bag for Q4 delivery IMHO.
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/show...elivery-change?p=837171&viewfull=1#post837171
Until today (12/10/15), the NA model S model delivery estimate still late December. It's tough to say the 17K model S orders already in the bag for Q4 delivery IMHO.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Earlier this week Tesla told Credit Suisse that they're on track for Q4 delivery guidance. Sounds like a lock to me.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
If guidance is in the bag, then they are doing it at the detriment of sales in Europe and worse, at the detriment of margins by putting everything and the cat on sale while simultaneously pushing their organisation hard which is operationally costly. I'd feel a rational leadership would throttle down the hard sale as soon as guidance was there and focus again on what is currently disappointing (margins) and certainly part of the biggest existential risk of the company (cash burn)
RobStark
Well-Known Member
With forex where it is they have higher margins in the US. European sales are not a priority.
Maybe main push is to be cash flow positive. And 19k certainly aids the effort even if margins are pushed down slightly.
That maybe a bigger boost to SP and therefore better environment for another capital raise.
They have stated repeatedly they are comfortable with their cash position.
No existential threat.
Edit Exception to European deliveries is Denmark of course. Getting Model S delivered to Danish customers before punitive taxes take effect is a priority.
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chickensevil
Active Member
I thought Denmark was solved since they are keeping it at 0% for a 0 emissions car until like 2017.
If everything Tesla told public is truth, then we should not had seen SP up and down between 180 and 280 in past two years. Historically a lot of misleading information which needs investors to do reality check.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Absolute nonsense.
Long term the SP is based on the facts.
Short term the SP is based on sentiment.
Estimated delivery time for Australian orders changed from March to Late March (14 days after the previous update on 11/26/2015)
My two cents on comparison of December 2015 to December 2014: apples and oranges.
In Q4 2014 Tesla produced 11,627 vehicles and delivered 9,834, i.e. it produced 1,793 MORE cars than was delivered. In this quarter Tesla plans to produce 2,000 LESS cars than delivered. This means that during the second half of this quarter produced cars exclusively ship within NA, but this was not the case in Q4 2014. In another words in second half of Q4 2014 production was fed both NA and overseas orders more or less in the same proportion as they were coming in, or with some priority given to NA orders. During the second half of this quarter, all production (about 20% increase as compared to Q4 2014) is fed exclusively using NA orders. It is only natural that due to this NA backlog in December 2015 is significantly less than in December 2014.
My two cents on comparison of December 2015 to December 2014: apples and oranges.
In Q4 2014 Tesla produced 11,627 vehicles and delivered 9,834, i.e. it produced 1,793 MORE cars than was delivered. In this quarter Tesla plans to produce 2,000 LESS cars than delivered. This means that during the second half of this quarter produced cars exclusively ship within NA, but this was not the case in Q4 2014. In another words in second half of Q4 2014 production was fed both NA and overseas orders more or less in the same proportion as they were coming in, or with some priority given to NA orders. During the second half of this quarter, all production (about 20% increase as compared to Q4 2014) is fed exclusively using NA orders. It is only natural that due to this NA backlog in December 2015 is significantly less than in December 2014.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Thx for the update! Except for the US, the rest of the world has a 2-3 month wait to get a model S.
Tons of demand.
In Q1, the lead time to get a Model S will probably grow to a month or more because tesla will be working thru the significant MX backlog. This is a "high quality" problem... Too much demand.
Tons of demand.
In Q1, the lead time to get a Model S will probably grow to a month or more because tesla will be working thru the significant MX backlog. This is a "high quality" problem... Too much demand.
chickensevil
Active Member
I will not be surprised if the lead time in NA goes straight to March once they finish with December. They will push as many as they can into December with whatever they can't fit into January (since they will have still made the cars), but at the point of the cutoff where they know they no longer can make the dates and start pushing people into January we will likely see the website change to March. All other countries might very well start showing April at that point and we will be starting all over again with trying to refill the pipe. I expect January deliveries to basically fall through the floor, especially with NA.
Going to be interesting to see.
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