Waymo

[diplomat33]

FYI, here is Waymo's latest ODD as approved by the CA DMV on Jan 11, 2024:

I think it is great that their ODD is basically everything inside the geofence now, except snow and ice. They are approved for all roads, up to 65 mph, day and night, and all weather, except snow and nice. Of course, Waymo is geofenced but those geofences are expanding. Within the geofences, there are very little other constraints. So really, the only major ODD constraints left to solve are snow/ice and expanding the geofences.

 

[Bitdepth]

FYI, here is Waymo's latest ODD as approved by the CA DMV on Jan 11, 2024:




I think it is great that their ODD is basically everything inside the geofence now, except snow and ice. They are approved for all roads, up to 65 mph, day and night, and all weather, except snow and nice. Of course, Waymo is geofenced but those geofences are expanding. Within the geofences, there are very little other constraints. So really, the only major ODD constraints left to solve are snow/ice and expanding the geofences.

This is fantastic to read. Clearly defined ODD.

 

[EVNow]

FYI, here is Waymo's latest ODD as approved by the CA DMV on Jan 11, 2024:

I think it is great that their ODD is basically everything inside the geofence now, except snow and ice. They are approved for all roads, up to 65 mph, day and night, and all weather, except snow and nice. Of course, Waymo is geofenced but those geofences are expanding. Within the geofences, there are very little other constraints. So really, the only major ODD constraints left to solve are snow/ice and expanding the geofences.

This is great ! When can I have Waymo pick me from my home ?

 

[diplomat33]

This is great ! When can I have Waymo pick me from my home ?

When Waymo deploys their driverless cars in your city.

 

[EVNow]

When Waymo deploys their driverless cars in your city.

So who cares

Actually - I see no reason why anyone would select Waymo over Lyft/Uber - except as a curiosity or for niche applications. I think this needs to be discussed (may be in a separate thread). We simply haven't paid much attention to this big issue.

 

[diplomat33]

Actually - I see no reason why anyone would select Waymo over Lyft/Uber - except as a curiosity or for niche applications.

I see plenty of reasons:
1) Waymo ride is safer.
2) Waymo ride is more consistent (you always get the same driving style every time).
3) Total privacy since there is no driver. So you can play whatever music you want, turn music up, without bothering the driver. You can talk to your friend and not worry about the driver eavesdropping. You don't have to talk to the driver or worry the driver will try to talk to you when you just want to be alone.
4) Safer for single women who don't have to worry about a creepy driver.
5) No tipping.
6) Waymo is always clean.
7) Waymo is always nice I-Pace instead of whatever Lyft or Uber car you might get.

All these reasons would make Waymo more than a curiosity or niche. In fact, there are thousands of people who are using Waymo regularly every day. It is far more than a curiosity or niche. Waymo is their primary mode of transportation.

 

[Supcom]

Total privacy since there is no driver.

You are joking, right? How many cameras are watching over your privacy inside the car? Do you know when one of the remote controllers is accessing the camera feed? Is it ever not being recorded? Waymo knows who you are, where you were picked up and where you were dropped off.

I'm not saying that Waymo is going to post your nose picking to youtube, but "total privacy" it ain't!

 

[diplomat33]

You are joking, right? How many cameras are watching over your privacy inside the car? Do you know when one of the remote controllers is accessing the camera feed? Is it ever not being recorded? Waymo knows who you are, where you were picked up and where you were dropped off.

I'm not saying that Waymo is going to post your nose picking to youtube, but "total privacy" it ain't!

It is more privacy that you would have in an Uber or Lyft. You can listen to whatever music, watch a movie, talk loud, sing, etc. You can't do those things with an Uber driver. But Waymo is not going to care.

 

[Supcom]

It is more privacy that you would have in an Uber or Lyft. You can listen to whatever music, watch a movie, talk loud, sing, etc. You can't do those things with an Uber driver. But Waymo is not going to care.

Mostly what you are referring to here is being inconsiderate more so than privacy. While it's true that you can do all these things without risk of annoying your driver, I'd expect that most uber drivers are pretty used to singing, loud talking party goers and are used to people who can't carry a tune.

And, a pair of ear buds lets you crank Spinal Tap to 11 with no complaints from anyone but your audiologist.

But, privacy is not on offer in any public transportation, least of all in a mobile surveillance vehicle.

 

[Bladerskb]

So who cares

Its amusing how the goal post on Waymo have continually shifted since 2018 and for Tesla, it has shifted to the other side (Who cares about L5, all i want is a good L2 and I'm satisfied).

Actually - I see no reason why anyone would select Waymo over Lyft/Uber - except as a curiosity or for niche applications. I think this needs to be discussed (may be in a separate thread). We simply haven't paid much attention to this big issue.

Even the Tesla gawd Andrej Karpathy says he uses Waymo exclusively to go anywhere he wants in SF and gives his reason.

Self-driving as a case study for AGI

Musings of a Computer Scientist.

web.archive.org

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

I see plenty of reasons:
1) Waymo ride is safer.
2) Waymo ride is more consistent (you always get the same driving style every time).
3) Total privacy since there is no driver. So you can play whatever music you want, turn music up, without bothering the driver. You can talk to your friend and not worry about the driver eavesdropping. You don't have to talk to the driver or worry the driver will try to talk to you when you just want to be alone.
4) Safer for single women who don't have to worry about a creepy driver.
5) No tipping.
6) Waymo is always clean.
7) Waymo is always nice I-Pace instead of whatever Lyft or Uber car you might get.

All these reasons would make Waymo more than a curiosity or niche. In fact, there are thousands of people who are using Waymo regularly every day. It is far more than a curiosity or niche. Waymo is their primary mode of transportation.

8) Cheaper?

 

[diplomat33]

8) Cheaper?

I have seen reports that some Waymo rides are cheaper than Uber, and reports that other Waymo rides are about the same price as an Uber. So it might vary based on time of day etc...

 

[EVNow]

Its amusing how the goal post on Waymo have continually shifted since 2018 and for Tesla, it has shifted to the other side (Who cares about L5, all i want is a good L2 and I'm satisfied).

Not by me.

Even the Tesla gawd Andrej Karpathy says he uses Waymo exclusively to go anywhere he wants in SF and gives his reason.

I'm sure all self-driving aficionados will use Waymo. Thats like a few dozen people in each city.

I'll use Uber/Lyft to go to the airport. They know shortcuts that Waymo will definitely not try.

Besides, I'm pro-people, not pro-machines. I get absolutely nothing by making Google a little bit richer at the expense of thousands of drivers.

OTOH, to me Tesla has always been about how it can help me drive my car. I'm not going to put my Tesla on some sharing network, even if it were to ever become possible. Its my personal car. If someone else comes along that makes a good EV that drives better on city roads, I'll readily buy their car ! Until then, Tesla is our best hope.

 

[DanCar]

Waymo stated many years ago that they wanted to price their rides similar to Uber. In reality they are losing billions. If Waymo where to try to break even, they would have to charge 100x. Does Tesla have an advantage because of this? When Tesla cracks the FSD nut, what will happen to Waymo? Yes, that is 4+ years away. When will Waymo break even?

 

[spacecoin]

Waymo stated many years ago that they wanted to price their rides similar to Uber. In reality they are losing billions. If Waymo where to try to break even, they would have to charge 100x. Does Tesla have an advantage because of this? When Tesla cracks the FSD nut, what will happen to Waymo? Yes, that is 4+ years away. When will Waymo break even?

I thinking Waymo might be cash flow positive 2025-2026, depending on expansion pace.

 

[JB47394]

In reality they are losing billions.

I assume they're losing billions due to research and development, not operations. What do their operational numbers look like?

This is the same argument used against Tesla while it was in the early years of scaling up, racking up a negative net profit per vehicle. Detractors pointed to that as an indication that EVs were not a viable product and that Tesla would fail.

When Tesla cracks the FSD nut, what will happen to Waymo?

It will compete, and price versus quality of product will determine who goes where. Perhaps Waymo will be the Apple of robotaxis, while Tesla will be the Android.

 

[DanCar]

I thinking Waymo might be cash flow positive 2025-2026, depending on expansion pace.

Where do you get your info? Or is it just a wild guess?

 

[spacecoin]

Where do you get your info? Or is it just a wild guess?

An educated guess? 700k trips covering over 7 M miles in 2023 with public riders. The service area is growing a lot, so I would be surprised if Waymo doesn’t hit at least 2M rides 2024 and 5-6M rides by 2025. By 2016 they could easily triple again or make deals with external operators to even 10x YoY. The main obstacles to broad commercialization seems to be solved (few remote assistance events, highway, airport pickup/dropoff).

If Waymo was a startup, I would gladly invest at least 50% of my capital into it.

 

[EVNow]

When will Waymo break even?

When they scale to dozens of cities and get a ton of cars to service people wherever they want, whenever they want. Thats a tall order.

 

[DanCar]

...
If Waymo was a startup, I would gladly invest at least 50% of my capital into it.

I chatted with someone from Waymo about a year ago on Reddit. They said their losses are offset by increase value in the company. So although they are losing billions in cash, the value of the company keeps increasing. I'm pretty sure the market cap for waymo is above $50 billion.
This website is confusing: https://notice.co/c/waymo
@Bladerskb Is there a way to buy waymo stock?