Upgraded from General Production to Signature Model S?!

[jerry33]

....Also, how does one open the Model S if the key fob has run out of battery?

There's a magic place under the wheel well that you touch with the fob. The thread with the manual photos shows it.

 

[ckessel]

hmmmm....160 Sig cancellations out of 1000.....isn't a 16% cx rate super duper high?

Well, it's really 160 out of the first 550ish or so since they haven't contacted the later Sig holders yet. However, as I noted, I'd be suprised if the later Sig holders have nearly as high a drop rate because later Sig holders haven't been waiting as long and knew better what they were getting into.

If I had to pick a number, I'd say the total Sig drop rate will be 18-20%. Is that high? I don't really know, I don't have any frame of reference.

 

[NigelM]

Well, it's really 160 out of the first 550ish or so since they haven't contacted the later Sig holders yet. However, as I noted, I'd be suprised if the later Sig holders have nearly as high a drop rate because later Sig holders haven't been waiting as long and knew better what they were getting into.

If I had to pick a number, I'd say the total Sig drop rate will be 18-20%. Is that high? I don't really know, I don't have any frame of reference.

Source for the 160 number?

 

[Yggdrasill]

I belive Nissan had closer to 50% cancellations on the Leaf. 20% for the Model S wouldn't be too bad, especially considering that we are probably talking about a significant number of downgrades. The actual cancellation rate might be less than 10%.

 

[ckessel]

Source for the 160 number?

The Model S Tally thread. Sigs capped at 1000, numbers above that only exist because of cancellations.

 

[ckessel]

I belive Nissan had closer to 50% cancellations on the Leaf. 20% for the Model S wouldn't be too bad, especially considering that we are probably talking about a significant number of downgrades. The actual cancellation rate might be less than 10%.

Well, the Leaf had a $99 deposit, so it's hard to compare how "motivated" those folks were compared to Telsa reservation holders.

 

[mlascano]

Source for the 160 number?

Per michigamodels tally Model S Tally as of 6/5:

US
S 1,160 (June 4, 2012)
SSL 244 (January 4, 2012)
R 439 (March 23, 2012)
P 9,371 (June 5, 2012)

So if Tesla is really sticking to just 1000 US Sigs there must have been 160 Sig cancellations or dowgrades to Prod (and potentially more to come). Impossible to tell if these are bunched up at the bottom, middle, top of the list or evenly spread.

I do hope there are enough people of the Sig wait list to keep filling in these openings. It wouldn't look good at all for Tesla to have to announce that the sold-out US Sigs are suddenly not.

 

[Mycroft]

I would agree with the guess that most "cancellations" were downgrades. I think quite a few of us were expecting something more for our $5,000 than early delivery and a badge (if we wanted a color other than red).

 

[FalconNinetyD]

Per michigamodels tally Model S Tally as of 6/5:



So if Tesla is really sticking to just 1000 US Sigs there must have been 160 Sig cancellations or dowgrades to Prod (and potentially more to come). Impossible to tell if these are bunched up at the bottom, middle, top of the list or evenly spread.

I do hope there are enough people of the Sig wait list to keep filling in these openings. It wouldn't look good at all for Tesla to have to announce that the sold-out US Sigs are suddenly not.

Do we know if all 160 of those Sig waiting list people have received the call saying that they can get a Sig if they want? I assumed this just meant they were on the list, but not necessarily guaranteed to get one.

 

[NigelM]

I'm curious as to the source for the 160 number; there will probably be significant downgrades from any number of things:

• Changed Mind
• Money situation changed
• Want different options
• Didn't like the Sig value proposition
• etc.
• etc,

But somebody's place on the wait list may not be indicative of the number of downgrades/cancellations; it could also just be indicative of having many people on the wait list who weren't serious or who were thinking about jumping the queue and now realizing they don't need to.

 

[ddenboer]

Do we know if all 160 of those Sig waiting list people have received the call saying that they can get a Sig if they want? I assumed this just meant they were on the list, but not necessarily guaranteed to get one.

I believe the people on that list all have new S reservation numbers, which means they have confirmed and given the additional $35k (like I did in April).

 

[Yggdrasill]

I believe the people on that list all have new S reservation numbers, which means they have confirmed and given the additional $35k (like I did in April).

That's my impression too. From my experience you don't get a number until Tesla has your money. I doubt that would be any different when it comes to upgrades.

 

[Jason S]

Personally the "sig value proposition" is me paying $5000 for early delivery. Paying roughly $1000 for every month I get it early. For very early Sig numbers that revert to equivalent Production numbers, that $1000/month could be $1000/week.

However, the wife wants the burgundy color. The value for that exclusive color is difficult to measure objectively but I think she's worth it. It may end up being her car anyway and I'll only get to borrow it sometimes.

So to each his own. I'm not worried if the Sigs are sold out or not.

 

[mlascano]

I believe the people on that list all have new S reservation numbers, which means they have confirmed and given the additional $35k (like I did in April).

That is my understanding. I was never on the wait list but once the Sigs were sold out (December 2012 if I'm not mistaken), all holders of Prod reservations had the option to add their names to the Sig wait list in hopes of a cancellation/downgrade to open up a spot for them to move in.

Do we know if all 160 of those Sig waiting list people have received the call saying that they can get a Sig if they want? I assumed this just meant they were on the list, but not necessarily guaranteed to get one.

Again, my understanding is that everyone who has moved up from Prod to Sig after the sold-out announcement has come from the wait list (having to pony up the additional $35K at the time of the new committment).

 

[SigS905]

From the Model S Facts page with the new design. "The first 1,200 Model S vehicles delivered in North America will be Signatures."

 

[mlascano]

From the Model S Facts page with the new design. "The first 1,200 Model S vehicles delivered in North America will be Signatures."

Correct. 1000 US, 200 Canada.

 

[Andrew Wolfe]

Until yesterday everyone with a Sig reservation thought that they would most likely have to order and get their car without a test drive. I think this is what led to a lot of deferrals and cancellations.

 

[strider]

Tesla has lost 160 Sigs reservations so far and they've only reached out to the first 1/2 or so of Sig folks. It's not a financial issue since there are enough people willing to fill in the Sig gaps. I'd guess the loss rate will be lower on later Sigs since those folks knew more before signing up. It's hard to say what that means for the loss rate on P reservations. I'll be concerned though if the reservation loss stays that high once they're done with the Sigs.

I agree that I think most Sig cancellations are people downgrading to General Production. The time penalty for later Sig holders dropping back to P will go up so I expect cancellations to drop off. For us it was only a couple weeks later to get the Blue that we really want and save $7,500. But a later Sig holder it could be 6+ months.

 

[NigelM]

These from the TSLA Investor Discussion:

The Tally shows Sig numbers listed to 1,160. That is because on the Tesla Forum "Tikiman" noted that he had upgraded from the wait list to Sig #1,160. We know the original lists weren't always compressed as people moved and/or dropped out over time. As the list wasn't compressed it's certain that the numbering went over 1,000 even as the actual count was less than 1,000. This means that there might have recently been 1 cancellation/deferral or 160 of them. The TMC Tally has been useful and fun, but in total it's known to be ~10% off the official numbers Tesla quoted at the Q1 conference call.

They did have a block reserved at the front of the line for Roadster owners. A friend of mine, Roadster owner, switched to Sig just before they sold out & received a fairly low number. My assumption is that any non-Roadster owner would go to the end of the line.

So say they had set aside the first 400 Sig numbers, but only had 200 Roadster owners put down a Sig deposit. Then the Sig numbers would go up to 1400, because # 201-400 would be unassigned. And that would be with zero dropout.

So it's quite possible that hundreds have dropped out over the history, but having one customer who received Sig #1160 doesn't mean that there were 160 recent cancellations/deferrals.

 

[pguerra]

Lol true dat. Next one will be in 117 yrs or something like that....

...It's a sign! :smile: