Good point about the RSI. Regarding Elliott Waves, much depends on today's earlier bottom holding.
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TSLA Technical Analysis
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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Good point about the RSI. Regarding Elliott Waves, much depends on today's earlier bottom holding.
If instead closing prices are considered for the extremes (which often works better), then the Fibonacci bounce target would have been $306.29.
The low for today occurred 90 minutes before the close at $306.30.
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Thank you. Much depends on whether a significant reversal began this afternoon.
A three gap down daily candlestick pattern is actually considered a reversal pattern - 'sanku' in Japanese - and indicates seller exhaustion. Something to consider if this transpires tomorrow morning and looking for a bottom prior to the bounce.
Thanks! Didn't quite match the criteria of a 'sanku' because it wasn't a gap down open. However, considering it dumped to below yesterdays close, shortly after this mornings open... I think that the general concept remains valid.
Fingers crossed for next week!
Ok posting one of my prior posts about the Bullish Harami Pattern (Bullish Harami). Basically it's a two period Candlestick pattern that TSLA really seems to like. The previous post was just at the end of November/early December just as the SP pivoted upwards. In general TSLA tends to follow this pattern well, and typically starts the following day at a higher SP, although as we can see from the following chart, doesn't always end there (often up, sometimes down).
The unusual thing about the recent crash in SP was that it was preceded by a complete failure of this pattern (see down arrow). During the last week in June we saw a Harami+ pattern which completely failed (which I mean the following day opened lower than the small green day) and then the prices continued downward to where we are now. Not sure what it means, but I find it an interesting consequence of the complete failure of the Harami+ pattern for TSLA.
I suspect that many patterns fail during an active bear raid. I have concluded this was an actual bear raid, with the normally-low-volume Monday being used to start the raid.
Here's my amateur attempt at TA....
Looks oversold to me due to the rapid rate of the drop and the series of gaps at 350 and 325.
As Curt pointed out, 306 is a Fib retracement level, and also a significant support level due to a lengthy (Apr-May) consolidation with 306 being close to the lower end of the trading range during that consolidation. We bounced off 306 on Thurs.
Fri looks like a Doji, also Fri lower wick is higher than the wick on Thurs, indicating an exhaustion of the selling pressure.
Bull case: bottom made at 306 on Thurs, Fri is a Doji. The 325 and 350 gaps will be magnets on the reversal. 350 will be resistance to watch closely, also see some resistance around 330, the top of the Apr-May consolidation. Prediction is a bounce to 325, 330 or 350 and consolidation there till further major news.
Neutral case: bounce to 325, back to 306, consolidate in between till further news. Basically a repeat of Apr-May.
Bear case: consolidate above 306 for a few days, break 306, head to the 270-280 level (should be strong support there). Gap fill around 270, and ~280 was Tsla's old ATH level. I'm not betting on that, just watching out for it if we break below 306. I believe it will take a large bit of bad news or a macro selloff to take us there.
Please note, I'm a total amateur, writing this just for fun (altho I do have my trades planned around this). What do you guys think?
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Weekly volume was the highest it has been in years. Remarkable, if you consider the shortened trading week!
I also believe that in the absence of many bullish regular traders, a bear raid was initiated earlier this week, triggering stop losses, and bringing in momentum traders.
Thanks for the graph. It makes it very clear how the bear raid happened. (For posterity, I will note that the final four candles are Monday July 3, Wednesday July 5, Thursday July 6, and Friday July 7.)
I think the bear raiders are out of ammo. They're now working against max pain and if they had any sense they covered their short sales (it's the only way they could profit). They don't have another low-volume Monday to start an attack.
I would expect an almost immediate retracement to $360, around the close when the bear raid started. (Note that by "almost immediate" I mean "sometime in the next few months".)
I, however, am also a total amateur with short term stuff.
The price action and high trading volume for TSLA during the last few sessions would be consistent with an important bottom having been set in place.
Looks like a hammer today. I'm thinking we are continuing to form a bottom. Also, we are back within the Bollanger Band.
Fri and today's candles look like the shorts are making a huge effort to prevent a bounce, but are not quite successful.
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Good point... the chart was skewed because I had pre-market activity turned on! Chart above has been updated to correct that.
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