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TSLA Technical Analysis
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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ev-enthusiast
Active Member
Looks like there is currently a falling wedge forming on the hourly timeframe.
Let's see how this is playing out during today's close and early tomorrow.
Could resolve to the upside.
Let's see how this is playing out during today's close and early tomorrow.
Could resolve to the upside.
The RSI and MACD imply Tesla is very oversold, and the stochastic implies a big move should happen any day now. This type of divergence is usually a good time to buy calls. Given the broad market rally over the past few days, I'm waiting a few hours before making any moves. If it can hold around $230, it could see a sharp spike mid day. The downgrade today is basically just another analyst being extremely conservative about their expectations for the Model X and Model 3, but maintaining their current price target. This is identical to 2012, when analysts were "unsure" if Tesla would be able to sell 12,000 Model S annually.
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
200DMA currently at $232 and that is a bit above current price of $228.
Not looking too good here.
Let's hope TSLA will regain that 200DMA by today's close or there could be some more downside under the 200DMA.
In the past the 200DMA did provide some solid support.
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
I don't see us currently trading based on technicals that much.
We have fear and misinformation spread around everywhere dominating everything and dropped us below 200DMA and out of BB.
The crazy drop down to $195 at 24th of August could provide some support and a double bottom.
But please be carful with your investments.
I wish I knew where the bottom was for Tesla. It's so hard to in good conscience to bet against Elon (Short Tsla) and the product we all love. One tweet could cause the stock to move 20 points in a single day. I'm hoping we are approaching the bottom soon, but I know I'm a buyer at the 200 level. Extremely hard to resist at the current 215 level.
So after looking at my chart, TSLA is very much broken and no clear bottom/support level since breaking the 200-day MA. Locally, we have 195, which was set on that day of the flash crash and the DOW opened -1000. Trend lines are very much at an extreme and the bottom area of the downtrend I've drawn is around 130.
Then again, there are plenty of buyers looking to get in around 200 so we may see plenty of support there.
Then again, there are plenty of buyers looking to get in around 200 so we may see plenty of support there.
CALGARYARSENAL
Member
$130.00 would even shock me. For the sake of TMC stock holders, I hope your drawing is wrong
$130.00 would even shock me. For the sake of TMC stock holders, I hope your drawing is wrong
Like I said, they're at an extreme at the moment because of current price action. It's a possible scenario out of many.
If TSLA drops to 130, I'm literally jumping out of a very high building because that will be a massive loss for me... Then again, the last two weeks has given me a vomit inducing loss with my shares.
This post is a little disturbing. First, I hope you were not using "literally" in a literal sense. If you were, let me encourage you to not kill yourself at a local bottom because you will then obviously miss the entire ride back up. If you are holding shares then it's just a matter of waiting until the value comes back. Those are the times you want to double down, not fold.
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
Technically this fear and misinformation during the recent days/weeks dropped us way below 200DMA, out of BB and into oversold territory, that's great!
That makes decisions way easier as compared to a consolidating SP in the middle of the trading channel where usually indecision resides.
The drop down to $195 at 24th of August and that SP level could again provide some support and form a double bottom as buyers think again that this level is just too tempting.
Yes, personally I could imagine people want to play this swing down to the $190s again. It will depend on how valuable shorts think the recent rumor that induced the price swings were, on their greed and on their willingness to miss the train up to the $270 again.
Just remember that day the SP dropped down to $195, SP sky rocketed up to $231 the same day and closed the day at $218, a lot of money was made on that day alone!
And it reminds us that the SP can change it's direction very quickly
Personally I am currently using the exaggerated SP moves to gradually get rid of my remaining protective puts.
Already sold 75% of my protective puts in two parts for a nice gain thank's to the volatility.
Only 25% still remaining.
Currently thinking about splitting em in half and getting rid of an other 12,5% of the protective puts soon at a SP level a bit above $200.
... and a "free" small gamble with the remaining 12.5% a bit below $200 just to see how greedy the shorts will be
Did not add shares or DITM long term calls yet, still cash from the protective puts at hand.
Will start to add shares or DITM long term calls at the $200 SP level and lower.
Tesla Motors story improved during the last weeks/months and that's great (I think I do not have to add information on this topic in the technical thread).
BTW I do expect volatility to stay this crazy high during the next weeks/months.
I do expect us to revisit both $270s and $190s at least once in the next weeks/months up to Q1 2016 ER.
There is just too much money to be made playing these wild swings of fear and uncertainity and everybody knows that and simply wants to profit on that
Maybe Q3 ER will slowly get us back to a more fact based talk/discussion again, personally I would like that very much.
BTW personally I love this amazing fiction about "no global demand for Tesla Motors vehicles".
I heard this story for the first time even before the Roadster was released years ago!
Tesla Motors just concentrated on their good work and proved the naysayers wrong time and time again.
This "no global demand for Tesla Motors vehicles" reminds me of great times and makes me smile every time I read or hear it again
Tesla Motors is selling more and more cars every time (currently roughly double sales volume of Model S than initially projected) and they are just starting their secret demand weapon, the Model X!
Please pay attention to other factors that might influence SP movements, like macro events.
Please be carful with your investments.
Edit: Just to provide some context how exaggerated the current high volatility SP moves are I added two charts, one showing the SP reaction to the first Model S fire in 2013 (that put Tesla Motors tech and the entire company in question), and one showing the recent fear induced implosion. It's on everybody's own to evaluate the two charts and come to conclusions. I think there is no need to add any further information:
| First Model S fire and SP reaction | Fear about global Model S demand gone and SP reaction |
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ev-enthusiast
Active Member
Top of current downwards channel at about $224.
We need to clear that one with volume to get some exciting upwards movement again.
We need to clear that one with volume to get some exciting upwards movement again.
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