TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[chronopublish]

personally, i think Tesla is going to have to start advertising in the near future. it's great to get by on word of mouth when you're a niche automaker, but when you are talking about being a major volume player, you have to keep yourself in the forefront of peoples' minds who don't really devote much headspace to cars. and that means jumping in front of their eyeballs during commercial breaks and other ads.

a secondary benefit would be that, just like every other major manufacturer, Tesla would then be pumping monetary incentive into the media .... not that advertising dollars effect how news of a company gets reported .... /s /s /s /s /s /s /s

Do you think Tesla has some kind of religious aversion to TV commercials?

Of course they don't. They'll run commercials just like every other auto manufacturer if and when they need them to drive ongoing demand. The fact that there is no indication they are planning to run commercials is an extremely bullish sign that demand is too high to justify it.

 

[Pezpunk]

So back to MA, what has caused the price spike in the last 15 minutes?

nobody on here mentioning it for that span. what are you thinking?!?!

 

[Unpilot]

Same thing causing the current fall...i.e. who knows

 

[SebastianR]

Not great style to quote myself - sorry for that (and of course my own selection bias shows since I don't quote the posts where I was clearly wrong - so take this with a huge grain of salt; no advice etc. etc) but here goes:

Back to market movements: I expect this week [was the week before x-mas] to be a slightly less volume week and next week essentially a "no volume at all week" [this current week], then we have the delivery figures.

So I expect a bit of a mini-copy of last week (i.e. slightly stronger opening on Monday, down on Friday). I expect the week after to be pretty brutal and a bit of a pop once we hear the delivery numbers. In absence of any other news (and there usually is some news when I least expect it) between now and the earnings call I expect TSLA to be lowest in the coming 15 days. Then again, I'm not really good at this, I don't know more than other esteemed members of this forum and I'm frequently wrong in all walks of life and especially in all matters TSLA ;-)

Based on my own words - and believe me when I wrote "pretty brutal" I didn't expect THIS brutal and already last week... I will wait for Friday to hop back in.

Since this is low enough right now, I will go for some shares and - just to keep my gambling addiction well medicated - a few lottery tickets (hoping for a beat in terms of delivery numbers).

Things are bit more murky in terms of January and early Feb in my mind: No idea how the whole shut-down / macro turmoil is going to get resolved. I guess I will stay out of leverage until shortly before earnings...

 

[wipster]

The only other method I'm aware of to cope with very high leveraged volatility emotionally is frontal lobe lobotomy.

As said by some Greek philosopher, "I'd rather have a bottle in front of me than a frontal lobotomy!"

 

[Lucky_Man]

So back to MA, what has caused the price spike in the last 15 minutes?

My wife bought some just before it crossed $300!

 

[Fact Checking]

Of course its relevant, but a LOT of people use that opportunity to completely trash the man.

Calling my factual list of Trump's personality traits "trashing the man" is a really thin-skinned, snowflake-ish denial of reality.

All the things I listed I consider facts: Trump's well documented dyslexia, his increasingly embarrassing memory lapses in public settings, his unstable personality that is all too easy to manipulate in its predictable simplicity. They are tell-tale signs not of the fake bone spurs diagnosis a Trump-tenant doctor gave to the draft dodger, as a favor to Fred Trump, while @Curt Renz and John McCain risked their lives in Vietnam. They are tell-tale signs of ongoing dementia.

How Trump will react to Jinping's manipulation very much matters to the $TSLA stock price.

You can disagree with the Presidents' policies and have a respectful discussion about them without those kinds of demeaning comments.

Pointing out well documented memory lapses of Donald Trump and linking them to the tell-tale signs of dementia is simply a factual statement:

"Donald Trump: Allegations of early stage dementia"​

Trump supporters talked about the suspected illnesses of Hillary Clinton all the time - was that disrespectful as well?

It's also ironic that Trump supporters who frequently demand the abandoning of "political correctness" will turn on a dime and demand "respectful" handling of Trump who has not made an honestly respectful statement about any political opponent in the last 3 years - maybe with an exception of his statements praising Vladimir Putin.

You can easily falsify me: link to a single public statement by Trump about an opponent that was genuinely respectful. Donald Trump didn't manage to treat McCain respectfully even after his death.

 

[EinSV]

Do you think Tesla has some kind of religious aversion to TV commercials?

Of course they don't. They'll run commercials just like every other auto manufacturer if and when they need them to drive ongoing demand. The fact that there is no indication they are planning to run commercials is an extremely bullish sign that demand is too high to justify it.

FWIW I think Elon believes money is better spent on R&D and engineering than advertising with the idea that a superior product will win out in the long run. So I doubt Tesla will have a significant advertising budget for years to come.

I also think demand will be through the roof for years to come so there is likely no way to prove which theory is correct.

 

[ggr]

And thanks for the support on my first post btw. That surprised me. I do enjoy and will keep my mustang, but I foresee a used model s or new model 3 in my future as a daily.

That's what I thought, keep my mercedes for fun driving, Tesla for daily driving. It didn't last long.

 

[Unpilot]

Calling my factual list of Trump's personality traits "trashing the man" is a really thin-skinned, snowflake-ish denial of reality.

All the things I listed I consider facts: Trump's well documented dyslexia, his increasingly embarrassing memory lapses in public settings, his unstable personality that is all too easy to manipulate in its predictable simplicity. They are tell-tale signs not of the fake bone spurs diagnosis a Trump-tenant doctor gave to the draft dodger, as a favor to Fred Trump, while @Curt Renz risked his life in Vietnam. They are tell-tale signs of ongoing dementia.

How Trump will react to Jinping's manipulation very much matters to the $TSLA stock price.

Cognitive ability's do not increase with age. Stress and poor diet are contributors to loss of Neuroplasticity.
Unless one is inclined to try and fight these age related problems after the age of 70 they increase with alarming speed.

The current POTUS has some alarming clues as to the extent this has happened to him.

Market related because uncertainty is widely thought to drive markets.

 

[JRP3]

Same thing causing the current fall...i.e. who knows

Looks as if it's just following the general market for the most part.

 

[JRP3]

Just had a voicemail from Tesla Nevada saying there was still time to get the $7,500 credit. The push is on.

 

[wipster]

Same thing causing the current fall...i.e. who knows

What fall?

 

[Nocturnal]

Slowly ticking up. Already made a few bucks on the shares I bought earlier today at 298.

You can disagree with the Presidents' policies and have a respectful discussion about them without those kinds of demeaning comments.

You really can't. I'll not hold myself to a higher standard than POTUS. He is a crap person and literally crazy. You can't tell me that somebody that thinks your body is a battery that is depleted by exercise isn't insane.

 

[ggr]

Following the Nasdaq from in front. It's mostly macros.

 

[Krugerrand]

Not sure whether this was posted.

Here we go again, deja vu, made up poo, blah, blah, blah. Why not just title the FUD: Tesla builds its second Potemkin Village.

 

[Unpilot]

What fall?

It was falling from a high when I posted that...you know it goes up and down...a lot...for some reason.

 

[wipster]

It was falling from a high when I posted that...you know it goes up and down...a lot...for some reason.

Just joshin' ya... we all know what can happen with this stock in particular... in fact, I think we're running out of acronyms!

 

[Alphacrux]

Excellent Article by Dan Neil at the WSJ: (paywall)

Think Electric Vehicles Are Great Now? Just Wait...

Think Electric Vehicles Are Great Now? Just Wait...
Exceptional electrics and hybrids will roll off the line over the next 18 to 36 months. Dan Neil, busy spray-painting his minivan until that time comes, is eyeing the upcoming Rivian R1T pickup

Dan 'gets it'. A must read. I don't have time to summarize the article, maybe later if I get the time, or some other reader with a subscription can summarize here.

 

[wipster]

Here we go again, deja vu, made up poo, blah, blah, blah. Why not just title the FUD: Tesla builds its second Potemkin Village.

But of course it got immediately posted on SA... so it must be real... not