TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[cheshire cat]

Just thought I'd add that my reading on the Norwegian Audi forum for the forthcoming e-tron isn't all roses, and this may reflect on VW that owns Audi. There seems to be 3 issues with the e-tron.
1 It's range and efficiency seems to be similar to i-Pace, or at least give similar dissappointments to i-Pace customers (keep in mind many had reservations for both i-Pace and e-tron and intended to only buy one of them).
2 It's straightline performance is bad and some of the specs are not good enough (many family people want more luggage space and true 5 seats, not 4+1).
3 Møller the official VW (VW, Skoda, SEAT and Audi) importer and dealer has really pushed the prices to the braking point so people feel price gouged. Not to forget it was promised in 2018 and seems to be q2 2019 in reality customers can get it.

Having said that people say the car is "premium" like an Audi should be and more than a Tesla (or so they say) and they will sell quite a few. Though Audi Norway hyping the car like there's no tomorrow, and it turning out to be good on something and bad on others means their sales will probably be lower than expected. So this speaks a bit to Audi's capability to read what customers want and hence might affect VWs ability to market the ID correctly.
To bring this back to market action, this will take time to turn out, but I would look carefully at e-tron sales in all the quarters of 2019, and that might affect TSLA share price though probably not before after summer 2019 I guess.

I find item 3 especially telling, via a vis. The usual we'd rather sell non electric.

 

[Dreadnought]

Do you think Tesla has some kind of religious aversion to TV commercials?

Of course they don't. They'll run commercials just like every other auto manufacturer if and when they need them to drive ongoing demand. The fact that there is no indication they are planning to run commercials is an extremely bullish sign that demand is too high to justify it.

First, Tesla is not a religion, it's a cult. Then, the fact that they can rightfully claim that they don't pay for advertising is in itself a priceless marketing asset. Even when at some point in time production may outpace demand, going mainstream does not mean going mainstream media for ads. Sure, "Emissions Test Mode" aka fart app is fun. But moreover, it's awesome PR at a one-off fixed cost. I can't wait to see my 9-yr old's reaction and am quite sure that he will forever associate a Tesla with fun. Tesla nailed it with viral marketing and not doing traditional ads is key to the success.

 

[Electroman]

I don't understand why you get 2 disagrees with this pretty spot on assessment.

I disagreed because of Fact Checking's qualification on dementia 'progressing'. No, I think it is in an advanced stage. That buffoon is total nuts. It is pretty jarring for me to put the word 'President' in front of his name.

 

[elasalle]

.

Excellent Article by Dan Neil at the WSJ: (paywall)

Think Electric Vehicles Are Great Now? Just Wait...

Think Electric Vehicles Are Great Now? Just Wait...
Exceptional electrics and hybrids will roll off the line over the next 18 to 36 months. Dan Neil, busy spray-painting his minivan until that time comes, is eyeing the upcoming Rivian R1T pickup

Dan 'gets it'. A must read. I don't have time to summarize the article, maybe later if I get the time, or some other reader with a subscription can summarize here.

If he got it - why would he be talking hybrids?

 

[EVNow]

Jerome Powell Is '100% Safe' at Fed, Trump Economic Advisor Says--Update
DOW JONES & COMPANY, INC. 10:03 AM ET 12/26/2018
A top Trump administration economic adviser said Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is in no danger of being fired, becoming the latest administration official to try to quell financial-market anxiety that President Trump might remove the central bank chief.

Kevin Hassett, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, said in an interview Wednesday that Mr. Powell, who goes by Jay, is secure in his job.

"The president has voiced policy differences with Jay Powell, but Jay Powell's job is 100% safe. The president has no intention of firing Jay Powell," Mr. Hassett told The Wall Street Journal.

Mr. Trump has made plain his unhappiness with the Fed's recent interest-rate increases, singling out Mr. Powell for blame. Mr. Trump has voiced concerns that the Fed's rate increases are reversing the stock-market gains recorded through much of his presidency.

The problem is Trump does not recognize the independence of some of the institutions. Classic case being the FBI (Comey fired), DOJ (Jeff Sessions fired), Special Counsel (Mueller, not yet). Its likely Trump was not aware of the limitations to the powers of the Presidency before taking office and is irritated by the limitations now.

So, what happens to Fed chair - where apparently he can't fire the chairman by statute, rather than just a norm ?

 

[Fact Checking]

Excellent Article by Dan Neil at the WSJ: (paywall)

Think Electric Vehicles Are Great Now? Just Wait...

Think Electric Vehicles Are Great Now? Just Wait...
Exceptional electrics and hybrids will roll off the line over the next 18 to 36 months. Dan Neil, busy spray-painting his minivan until that time comes, is eyeing the upcoming Rivian R1T pickup

Dan 'gets it'. A must read. I don't have time to summarize the article, maybe later if I get the time, or some other reader with a subscription can summarize here.

Great article by the Pulizer Prize winner!

Random quotes:

"During the reasonable service life of any vehicle I buy today, I expect the demand for IC-powered vehicles will drop to practically zero, equivalent to the current market penetration of flip phones. No one will want them and there will be nowhere to get them fixed; by that time widespread fleet electrification will have cratered traditional dealerships that depend on service dollars to survive."

"The steady improvement in lithium-ion batteries’ energy and power-density over cost will render the latest plug-in hybrids comically superfluous in a matter of years."

"Meanwhile, EVs just keep evolving. The Tesla Model 3 is amaze-balls, crazy good."​

 

[winfield100]

But of course it got immediately posted on SA... so it must be real... not

Speaking of Seeking Alpha, looks like TSLA is headed for $335/share by Friday (2 days) 12/28/2018 according to max-pain
Max Pain | Maximum-Pain.com

 

[EinSV]

.


If he got it - why would he be talking hybrids?

That’s the WSJ’s misleading lead-in. Neil trashes hybrids:


“The greatest offenders are also the most complex, like Volvo’s T8 plug-in hybrid powertrain, with electric motors, CVT, batteries, power inverter and a supercharged/turbocharged 2.0-liter engine thrashing away at one another, all so it can eke out a few miles of EV range. The steady improvement in lithium-ion batteries’ energy and power-density over cost will render the latest plug-in hybrids comically superfluous in a matter of years.”

 

[cheshire cat]

Not sure whether this was posted.

But arn't they coming up for a long holiday period soon ? not too sure without research.

 

[Fact Checking]

FWIW I think Elon believes money is better spent on R&D and engineering than advertising with the idea that a superior product will win out in the long run. So I doubt Tesla will have a significant advertising budget for years to come.

Note that Tesla is spending on marketing: the referral program costs several tens of millions of dollars per quarter.

But Elon is against mass advertising - i.e. forcing adverts on unwilling consumers. Instead they are financing word of mouth, viral channels of marketing.

He's not wrong.

 

[PaulusdB]

Speaking of Seeking Alpha, looks like TSLA is headed for $335/share by Friday (2 days) 12/28/2018 according to max-pain
Max Pain | Maximum-Pain.com

Others expect $320 Opricot Open Interest|Volume|Max Pain

 

[Krugerrand]

But of course it got immediately posted on SA... so it must be real... not

I actually saw the SA article before the other link. Regardless of the origination, the continuation of blatant bs in the media has caused me to distrust every single piece of reporting on the planet.

Just this morning I picked up a local rag to peruse over one of the best hotel breakfasts I’ve ever had. I got through three front page articles before giving up upon the realization I’d rather read Stephen King - his fiction is far more believable!

 

[Pezpunk]

Note that Tesla is spending on marketing: the referral program costs several tens of millions of dollars per quarter.

But Elon is against mass advertising - i.e. forcing adverts on unwilling consumers. Instead they are financing word of mouth, viral channels of marketing.

He's not wrong.

the decision to make the Model S basically look like a "normal" car was a stroke of genius. similarly, i think it's time Tesla started acting like a "normal" car company in terms of advertising -- i think it would actually be a comfort to a lot of people, and help normalize the idea of buying one.

obviously since we have mostly already "drunk the kool aid" here, it's hard for us to imagine what it's like, but i think there are TONS of people who aren't comfortable buying things that haven't been advertised to death at them. for them, seeing a car commercial on TV makes it seem like a more legitimate car.

i understand if that sounds like nonsense, but i honestly think there are millions of people who work that way, even if they don't realize it themselves.

 

[wipster]

.


If he got it - why would he be talking hybrids?

If you read the article, he's actually disparaging hybrids, not praising them. Remember this is the guy that called the model 3 the best car ever made! He's totally into BEV's as shown by this article... definitely worth a read if you can.

 

[Fact Checking]

but i think there are TONS of people who aren't comfortable buying things that haven't been advertised to death at them. for them, seeing a car commercial on TV makes it seem like a more legitimate car.

I agree in part: I think a good compromise would be a really good Super Bowl advert - something on the level of Apple's 1984 ad:

Or something like this Christmas ad:

 

[sundaymorning]

Lots of forces are driving this market rebound:

Oil prices surge 7 percent, wiping out Christmas Eve losses

Guggenheim investment chief predicts there's a 50% chance the Fed cuts rates next year

Retail is having its best holiday season in 6 years

 

[gene]

Note that Tesla is spending on marketing: the referral program costs several tens of millions of dollars per quarter.

But Elon is against mass advertising - i.e. forcing adverts on unwilling consumers. Instead they are financing word of mouth, viral channels of marketing.

He's not wrong.

But then, should Tesla show this on TV, I believe it would be the talk of the town:

 

[EVNow]

I agree in part: I think a good compromise would be a really good Super Bowl advert - something on the level of Apple's 1984 ad.

Or something like this Christmas ad:

I think these one off ads are good for brand promotion.

But ofcourse, the day the information about the ad comes out TSLA will tank by $20 - because the "demand has collapsed".

 

[Lucky_Man]

You could see everyone braking before the VW passed the Tesla. The VW driver just keeps on going. Perhaps rubbernecking. Either way, dumbass.

Texting -- LYDIA 2 style!

 

[sundaymorning]

This should be big and good news. Strange that I don't see it reported so far in US Media ...

I think the Trump administration has learned to take a step back and not jump the gun on Chinese announcements. They are letting the Chinese make make public announcements first, to ensure no further embarsssment from misspeaking. Once Jan 1st hits and tariffs are reduced, it will solidify good faith between the two countries to start the healing process.