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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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Totally blind to the fact that many of us have a portion of our money on stock only, with no option or margin.

Totally blind to the fact that many of us won't be rattled by tens of mil loss in q3.


I wonder if long term investors have lived through horrendous losses believing in something before.
I wonder what longs do for risk management.
I wonder how longs think of technical analysis.

I especially worry about the clear and utter disregard of any negativity. It really seems like there is a spinning coin flip, all everyone can see is heads, tails not being possible.

I find this company viable long term but no longer worth investing and holding.
 
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I am more pessimitic. Less than 50%

Even with the amazing deliveries we still cannot breakout of the normal tesla stock cycle. Price won't rise until April. Evident in candle stick chart. Many extremely bad patterns showing up. Probably due to old longs like zhelko selling.

Elon twitted again yesterday. Watch how many longs pleaded with him to stop. These ppl used to cheer his taunting on twitter. So safe to assume that many longs are at the market's mercy now. Don't think Elon understands that his long base is injured.
I know that some members here a worth a serious amount, but I still don`t think that`s enough to move the stock significant one way or the other. It`s really the institutional players and their hundreds of millions of dollars that decide the game and I feel like they are sitting on the benches. Tesla needs to deliver on the profitability promise.

I also think they are a lot less emotional than us, retail investors, so once they see the numbers materialize, they will need to recalculate their own projections and would be "forced" to upgrade their price targets and recommend a "buy". But it may take more than a quarter, maybe some material development on GF3 with a specific production start date within the next 12 months to alleviate China fears, some indication that new orders are coming in to replace the preorders (as opposed to the ever so vague "we had record orders"), etc.

And yes, Elon behaving should reassure everyone, incl. the retail longs.
 
Yeah, that Schuler press weighs 80 tons, that's not its stamping pressure. But do you know the utilization rate / capacity of the current press? Let's not assume they need another one in Fremont without information.

Cheers!

When talking about presses, nobody identifies a press by its weight, it’s always identified by its tonnage. Weight is not an informative metric in the industry and only matters when discussing installation to the base.

Customer: I need to make 100,000 brass flanges per week.
Vendor: I’ve got this beautiful press that tips the scales at 10 ton.

Not helpful.

Customer: I need to make 100,000 brass flanges per week.
Vendor: I’ve got a 250 ton press that cycles up to 100 strokes/min.

Now we’re getting somewhere.

We’ve already done the maths here before in terms of possible run rates and down time. You’re late by over a year and a half to this discussion.

Run rate will depend on the die design, the part design, the press design, the material, the lubricant, the robot set up and programming et al... Typically for class A body panels, run rates will be between 12-20 strokes/min. Use an average of 15-16 strokes/min in your math. Use the same for the other new press line and less when doing the math for their old hydraulic Schuler. I think they’ve got a fourth decent sized press line in there but it wouldn’t be doing many body panels, simply not big enough.

You could also track down the various videos of Tesla’s presses running and/or other similar presses making body panels and count the strokes, or even visit Schuler’s website.

We shouldn’t make assumptions about them needing another press line without information, but you made an assumption about Y die sets and how all that was going to work without information?!

Here’s the difference, though, this is one of my areas of expertise and thus any assumptions I might have made are based on hard knowledge in the industry and video/picture/investor and car owners tours etc... information gathered over the years. I also qualified my educated guess.
 
I like this idea of not loaning out my shares to shorts. I'll research my own brokers but I wonder if there is a resource on what companies loan shares, whether the investor can control it, and how? If I'd seen such a thing I might have done it by now =)

if your shares are fully paid for, your brokers can’t loan them out without your consent/enrollment in to a stock yield program
if you used broker-extended margin to purchase your shares, you don’t have a choice. broker can do what they want.
 
Longs can and are injured by short term moves. I was close to a margin call at 260. Musk would face a margin call around 95. We are both long.

Not everyone is in at $20 with no margins like you and me. I am guessing some pledged stocks for a loan for day to day spending, some heloc'd their home etc.
Fair points, margin is of course risky with volatile stocks, unless you're Elon.
 
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List of things we can do as supporters:
  • don't lend your shares to shorts. Elon said so yesterday.
  • buy the dip, then hold. No margins. Do options only if you know what you're doing.
  • TMC is growing, both in quantity of posters and visibility. Don't increase the noise, keep up the quality of the forum, invite people here.
  • Good content here is likely to spread out via Twitter or Cleantechnica or Electrek. Keep it coming.
  • If you feel like it, go to Twitter, fight FUD. Personally I'm not very vocal there, but I support with retweet and likes whenever I can.
  • Don't get emotional. The strategy of malicious shorts is to make you lose your confidence (and Elon's too). The want to hurt financially and emotionally. Don't let them.
  • Let people take a ride in your Tesla. Better than anything else: FUD is less likely to sting if people have tried what a Tesla is.
  • Organize a counterstrike for SEC. This I don't know how to do: we have evidence, we should save it somewhere and help @ZachShahan or others do an investigative piece.
 
Yeah, I was always wondering how index funds are able to follow the indices with so little cost: "following" the price is almost always costly in the long run, as you always miss the biggest up-moves and the biggest down-moves...

But modern index funds have miraculously low maintenance costs. It appears, based on Elon's tweet, that this is so because they manipulate the price:
  • price moves against them they mostly missed the big up-move (and no, HFT doesn't help them there)
  • no problem, they buy shares too late, lend them out to shorts, who fade the biggest price movements to below the purchase price of index funds.
  • index fund has now 'followed' the index by actually hurting the price (!), and earns a nice lump of money via the share lending interest
  • because share prices are generally moving up, increasing volatility this way increases the income of index funds
If you think it through, this is true market manipulation and fraud in essence:
  • the index funds knowingly lent out shares to help depress the price, to make it cheaper for them to "follow" the index,
  • in the process the index fund not only hurts the income of their own customers (whose return is partially transferrred to the shorts), but hurts the income of every single long on the market,
  • the shorts also measurably increase volatility, which is another cost and risk for the system.
Shorts are true anti-investors.

Maybe another entry for @Papafox's price manipulation thread?
Ross Gerber on Twitter
 
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After being long and averaging down AMD for the most of 2017 and early 2018, let me tell you I am not even phased by 20% drops and bag holding. I look at currently products and it's ability to disrupt. AMD has a much inferior product vs Tesla as the disruptor but I kept going. Many Fud and even timed attacks by Shorts happened all year. I had a negative 50k on my account at my lowest. Everyone around me told me I should look elsewhere. Now I look like a hero with a 150k gain.

Stick to what you believe in. AMD had an inflection point with 7nm, Tesla is now at an inflection point with cash flow positive. This is what I bet on, overly misunderstood and attacked stocks. I have a negative 15k bag holding Tesla and don't even care. It's part of my investment strategy anyways.
 
Not everyone is in at $20 with no margins like you and me. I am guessing some pledged stocks for a loan for day to day spending, some heloc'd their home etc.

This is why I never buy on margin. I gamble with actual money I have to lose. Amazing how well I can sleep at night even when it’s in the red. Because I know it will come back. And even if it didn’t ever come back, I’d still be fine because I never bet the entire farm on one thing. Diversify.
 
I don't get you guys who were long but bailed. The numbers are there. You see HUGE gains every quarter, we're on track to make a killing in a year or so, we're profitable now.

ICE sales are on the decline, TESLA model 3 revenue is DOUBLE that of the toyota camry, with killer margins coming.

Not only that, if you invertebrate longs would take a look, GE is cratering...wanna know why, besides shoddy management? Because their power division, where they make and sell turbines for power plants, fell off a cliff.

You think there's any correlation between GE's power division failing and Tesla Energy's imminent ramping?? I sure as hell do. The entire power plant industry is holding off on building new gas fired turbines because they're waiting to see how battery storage pans out. And we all know who the battery storage leader is.

Elon is honest to a fault, he has integrity, he works harder than any human being on earth, is smarter than 99.999%, and wants to save the environment as much as he can, and in the process make us longs money. I am with him all...the...way!!!

Many people are long only when it’s “convenient”. I’m sorry but I have no sympathy for people who are in trouble now because of the drop. No one held a gun to your head to buy on margin or stretch yourself to a breaking point that is easily reached. And if you are at or near retirement, you should be even more cautious.
 
You're completely guessing, though. If you try to work out a reasonable gross margin based the financials from the previous quarters and current ASP/option mix, it's easy to get to a higher number than 15-16%.

Remember, the production and delivery numbers beat the low end of guidance by a significant amount. And Tesla has gone all out with delivering AWD and performance. With a larger number of deliveries than expected and better ASP than expected, one can expect Tesla to beat the guidance. Now, it remains to be seen whether that means 16% or 20%, but I'm just saying, this number is extremely important. It makes modeling very difficult, because a difference of 1-2% can change any conclusion based on the modeling.

Tesla's statements in the 2Q18 SH letter seem internally inconsistent:
  • "Model 3 gross margin turned slightly positive in Q2" but also
  • "Model 3 gross profit excluding non-cash items shifted from negative in Q1 to positive in Q2,"
11,370 of the 53,339 M3 deliveries in 3Q18 carry that GM%.
 
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