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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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Pissed from yesterday? :)

Yes, apparently he changed his mind from being fully invested in Tesla as of yesterday, to believing that all of Tesla's financial statements throughout its history are a sign of doom from a company headed by a huckster, in one evening. ;)

People like this must think we're freaking morons to believe something like that.
 
So looking ahead a bit, barring any negative news on the SEC settlement side, the next big news to impact the stock is Q3 ER. I think we were all a bit disappointed that the deliveries report did not have any positive impact, but it just reinforces my belief that TSLA is seriously depressed by sentiment and big funds being cautious until they see numbers in the black. It would have been interesting to see how the report would have impacted the stock in absence of the whole "funding secured" / SEC investigation / SEC settlement drama, but we`ll never know.

Looking ahead, thanks to the amazing job some of our members do modelling financials, i think we can all agree that profits are all but certain in Q3. Probably not in the hundreds of millions, but even if it`s only a few tens of millions it is a huge turnaround from -700m the past 2 quarters and reaffirms the longs` narrative, that with economies of scale Tesla should start printing money.

Having said that, I now see the chances of TSLA shooting up after the ER as 50-50. I see the short narrative and even some analysts` and firms` narrative shifting to sustainability of the sales numbers & profits. If Tesla can address this by sharing some details on the backlog and how it`s not simply down by 70k cars, but new orders are coming in, that could help. But it may be, that we need at least 1 more quarter to convince the world this is not a one time event.

Thoughts?

I am more pessimitic. Less than 50%

Even with the amazing deliveries we still cannot breakout of the normal tesla stock cycle. Price won't rise until April. Evident in candle stick chart. Many extremely bad patterns showing up. Probably due to old longs like zhelko selling.

Elon twitted again yesterday. Watch how many longs pleaded with him to stop. These ppl used to cheer his taunting on twitter. So safe to assume that many longs are at the market's mercy now. Don't think Elon understands that his long base is injured.
 
I've finally settled down this morning. Worst case is that Elon goes back to fighting the charges. Not the end of the world. Just frustrating that he's all over the place and taking the stock for a ride.

Oh well, I'm ready to hang in for the fight if that's what happens. Hope the board is as well. They should be, but hopefully they are.

EDIT: It shouldn't be relevant, but the fact that the stock is not down as bad as I thought it would be also helps. I do think we likely have more down then up over the short term, but not a lot with the great Q3 numbers that are on the way.
 
I wonder if long term investors have lived through horrendous losses believing in something before.
I wonder what longs do for risk management.
I wonder how longs think of technical analysis.

I especially worry about the clear and utter disregard of any negativity. It really seems like there is a spinning coin flip, all everyone can see is heads, tails not being possible.

I find this company viable long term but no longer worth investing and holding.
 
I wonder if long term investors have lived through horrendous losses believing in something before.
I wonder what longs do for risk management.
I wonder how longs think of technical analysis.

I especially worry about the clear and utter disregard of any negativity. It really seems like there is a spinning coin flip, all everyone can see is heads, tails not being possible.

I find this company viable long term but no longer worth investing and holding.
More power to you.

My opinion is that the fundamentals have never been stronger but the stock price is not reflecting it currently given the media frenzy surrounding Elon and the SEC.

I will of course re-evaluate after Q3 ER after checking out the numbers.
 
It's all investing. And investing is gambling. Not akin, it is literally gambling.

I'd hesitate to use "literally" there. There's certainly risk, and in that sense it's a "gamble", but there's risk in EVERYTHING. Your next breath could inhale poisonous gas, are you literally gambling 24x7 as you breathe? Most people wouldn't categorize it that way...

The difference in investing is that you have a "vested interest" in the success of a company, which can be for multiple reason, including profit. Yes there's risk associated with that, but the motive is often not "profit at all costs, including the failure of the company."
 
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In my humble opinion...

Wall Street Conventional Wisdom: Tesla's stock value is boosted by having Musk as CEO (aka, there's a danger if he were forced out), but his management strategies have been harmful to the company.

Reality: Tesla's stock value is harmed by having Musk as CEO (aka, the initial Wall Street freakout would eventually be followed by a spike), but his aggressive moat-bridging strategies have allowed the company to repeatedly achieve what believed was impossible.

IMHO... the conventional wisdom on Wall Street and reality are precisely opposite from each other. What would Tesla be without Musk? Oh, nothing except that company that is eating everyone else's lunches at EVs (you know, that tech that everyone keeps agreeing is what the future of the industry hinges on?) and growing at a monstrous rate. Something that more than justifies its current high ratio of market cap to revenue relative to other automakers.

Summary: I support Musk for his strategic direction, and put up with his adverse impacts to the stock price because of this. But I have no fear of him being gone, so long as whoever would be at the helm would be at least generally trustworthy and looking to carry Tesla's present strategy onward.
 
I sympathize with the pain expressed by many TSLA bulls. I’m sorry...really am.

It’s a really good time right now to average down in the stock. With TSLA, it’s usually a horrible time to use options unless you’re very astute and make it your full time job so you can watch every little nuance ALL DAY LONG.

If you’re a working schmuck, like me, options are just a first class seat on a (non-electric) plane ride to hell.
 
I wonder if long term investors have lived through horrendous losses believing in something before.
I wonder what longs do for risk management.
I wonder how longs think of technical analysis.

I especially worry about the clear and utter disregard of any negativity. It really seems like there is a spinning coin flip, all everyone can see is heads, tails not being possible.

I find this company viable long term but no longer worth investing and holding.


I don't get you guys who were long but bailed. The numbers are there. You see HUGE gains every quarter, we're on track to make a killing in a year or so, we're profitable now.

ICE sales are on the decline, TESLA model 3 revenue is DOUBLE that of the toyota camry, with killer margins coming.

Not only that, if you invertebrate longs would take a look, GE is cratering...wanna know why, besides shoddy management? Because their power division, where they make and sell turbines for power plants, fell off a cliff.

You think there's any correlation between GE's power division failing and Tesla Energy's imminent ramping?? I sure as hell do. The entire power plant industry is holding off on building new gas fired turbines because they're waiting to see how battery storage pans out. And we all know who the battery storage leader is.

Elon is honest to a fault, he has integrity, he works harder than any human being on earth, is smarter than 99.999%, and wants to save the environment as much as he can, and in the process make us longs money. I am with him all...the...way!!!
 
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