History does not predict the future, but it does have a way of repeating. We just had a dip of 28.5% over 13 trading days with a bottom hopefully set at $248. This dip was not unlike others TSLA has experienced in terms of the percentage drop or duration. How has TSLA acted in the past after larger dips like this? We've had 12 dips of at least 14% over the last 3 years. The dips ranged from 14.4% to 42.0% with an average of 22.2%. This last dip felt pretty dramatic to me, but as it turns out, it's only moderately worse than the average of those 12 larger dips. Given how this one felt, the 42% dip in 2016 must have felt absolutely excruciating, especially for those holding calls.
So, what happened to TSLA after these larger dips? Climbs ranging from 9.5% to 69.5% with an average of 22.7%. 67% of the time, the next climb did not reach the level of the prior peak. However, 92% of them reached 90% of the prior peak. The 1 that didn't still reached 85% of the prior peak, and that peak was 5% below the ATH at the time.
The longest it took TSLA to climb back to 90% of the prior peak (or 85% for the 1 that didn't get to 90%) was 24 trading days. The average was 10 trading days. Only 2 out of the 12 took longer than 14 trading days.
So, who knows what it will do this time, but at least based upon how it has acted in the past, I don't personally expect a lengthy consolidation period here. The dip wasn't particularly unusual, assuming it is over. We won't know for sure until next week. Will the next climb be similar to ones in the past? Who knows, but I wouldn't bet against it.