TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[JRP3]

Other updates:

3) Chinese order of Model 3 is less than most expectations (not far less).

4) In addition, the current status is that there won't be major investment in the next 3 years. The factory (when approved) in China will produce Model 3 and Model Y.

6) Model Y "production" will borrow technology from SpaceX. Not the car itself.

 

[EinSV]

Other updates:

? link?

 

[jhm]

This is such a run of not significant or easily solved issues that I am now annoyed.

1. Moody’s. Raising a couple of Billion now that they have gotten Model 3 production off the ground is not an issue. The company is far from challenged from a capital raise issue.

2. Recall. Quick fix, at least partially paid by Bosch. So Bosch doesn’t know how to build parts? Anyone questioning Bosch’s role? You know why not? Because this happens all the time and IS NOT AN ISSUE. Anyone notice that Ford just recalled a couple of million cars?

3. Accident. It’s a tragedy. Who knows at this point why. You know what is easily known - that this interchange is in the heart of Sillicon Valley, probably the highest density of Tesla vehicles anywhere on the planet, including where extensive autopilot miles are used by many owners, including Tesla employees and also in an area where autopilot is tested. There should be lots of data. Tesla & NTSB should have lots of data and previous reports at this spot to figure this out.

Nothing burger with nothing fries and a nothing shake.

 

[JRP3]

? link?

The original Reddit thread linked up thread.

 

[kbM3]

This time seems like an unbelievable opportunity to invest in TSLA. Maybe it was a better value near the IPO, but there was so much more risk then.

All of the drop from the low $300's seems to be driven by shorts, FUD and fear. The only legitimate risk seems to be that Tesla might need to raise more capital this next quarter. However some of the smartest posters here have done analyses and don't think they will. I also trust the exec team at Tesla to handle cash over the next 2 quarters in the most intelligent way possible.

Conversely, it looks like more and more evidence is occurring that the ramp is hitting its stride. If we were still in the 300's, this would be cause, over the next week as this is confirmed, to make a huge move upwards. At $265.00, this move should really be magnified.

I was over 100% invested at around $320 / share, but not enough to have to sell when it dropped to $250. I did sell, but after it stabilized I bought back and actually lowered my overall cost basis by 40c I'm almost debating options, but due to my unfamiliarity and because I'm already so aggressive, I will not.

Isn't this really an historic opportunity?

 

[sundaymorning]

Ok, every major media outlet that I track has now unloaded both barrels on Tesla. Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance, Wall Street Journal, NY Times, Washington Post, news aggregators posting negative headlines at the top, multiple smaller doom porn sites that relentlessly attack Tesla anyway but have had a renewed fervor the last few days etc etc. All the same stuff - death and explosions, cash burn and bankruptcy, devastating recall (really?) and of course, who the hell does this smug prick Musk think he is anyway?

Sad part is that even the ‘reputable’ rags post the same slanted and poorly researched crap. Tesla and Musk have a lot of enemies and will just never go away.

They don’t have much left unless something new and unfortunate comes up. It is up to TSLA to execute. They should be on the verge of the critical production numbers they need to make this all go away quickly.

I would venture to guess that a dip on Monday is probable and should probably be bought aggressively. Invest at your own risk please. And yeah, with money that you can afford to lose 100%. That’s right, all of it.

A lot of news is covered by Rupert Murdoch, who owns 20th century fox, the Times, The Wall Street Journal, etc. he's also an oil man and has ownership stakes in Genie Oil and Gas Inc., he’s also the chairman of Newscorp. Eventually his entities will be taken down my Musk Enterprise.

 

[K_Dizzle]

This time seems like an unbelievable opportunity to invest in TSLA. Maybe it was a better value near the IPO, but there was so much more risk then.

All of the drop from the low $300's seems to be driven by shorts, FUD and fear. The only legitimate risk seems to be that Tesla might need to raise more capital this next quarter. However some of the smartest posters here have done analyses and don't think they will. I also trust the exec team at Tesla to handle cash over the next 2 quarters in the most intelligent way possible.

Conversely, it looks like more and more evidence is occurring that the ramp is hitting its stride. If we were still in the 300's, this would be cause, over the next week as this is confirmed, to make a huge move upwards. At $265.00, this move should really be magnified.

I was over 100% invested at around $320 / share, but not enough to have to sell when it dropped to $250. I did sell, but after it stabilized I bought back and actually lowered my overall cost basis by 40c I'm almost debating options, but due to my unfamiliarity and because I'm already so aggressive, I will not.

Isn't this really an historic opportunity?

The problem with options is that because of the volatility they are really expensive. You’re almost better off selling them

 

[SunCatcher]

This time seems like an unbelievable opportunity to invest in TSLA. Maybe it was a better value near the IPO, but there was so much more risk then.

All of the drop from the low $300's seems to be driven by shorts, FUD and fear. The only legitimate risk seems to be that Tesla might need to raise more capital this next quarter. However some of the smartest posters here have done analyses and don't think they will. I also trust the exec team at Tesla to handle cash over the next 2 quarters in the most intelligent way possible.

Conversely, it looks like more and more evidence is occurring that the ramp is hitting its stride. If we were still in the 300's, this would be cause, over the next week as this is confirmed, to make a huge move upwards. At $265.00, this move should really be magnified.

I was over 100% invested at around $320 / share, but not enough to have to sell when it dropped to $250. I did sell, but after it stabilized I bought back and actually lowered my overall cost basis by 40c I'm almost debating options, but due to my unfamiliarity and because I'm already so aggressive, I will not.

Isn't this really an historic opportunity?

Although a Tesla automobile can not be bought on sale, TSLA can. This week there was a great sale on. Many of us went shopping, taking advantage of this infrequent opportunity.
Be bold when others are fearful.

 

[jeewee3000]

Isn't this really an historic opportunity?

As a long-term investor, I sure hope so.

 

[Waiting4M3]

The problem with options is that because of the volatility they are really expensive. You’re almost better off selling them

I would only entertain selling covered calls, selling anything else seems too risky

 

[K_Dizzle]

I would only entertain selling covered calls, selling anything else seems too risky

Covered calls is what I meant. Although some here have the balls to sell naked puts

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Although (because?) I was an investment banker for 30 years, I have never been a fan of technical analysis. I focus on fundamentals, primarily cashflow.

Great, an expert, you dealt with a lot of companies that grow 50% in billions revenue range? If this is relatively unique situation, what's your take on how that changes expectations for tremendous capital appetite Tesla has?

 

[bdy0627]

The problem with options is that because of the volatility they are really expensive. You’re almost better off selling them

They are expensive but they still dramatically amplify gains/losses when the stock really moves. If the stock moves up about 15% over the next few weeks, as it historically has with larger dips such as this one, then calls will be highly profitable. The main risk in the expense of options right now to me would be if TSLA suddenly became stagnate for a long time. That's not usually the case after dramatic moves down like this for TSLA. I'm not personally at all worried about TSLA becoming less volatile. I just don't see that happening anytime soon. The real risk in buying TSLA calls is a further drop in the stock. That's always something to worry about when you buy calls.

 

[TradingInvest]

This time seems like an unbelievable opportunity to invest in TSLA. Maybe it was a better value near the IPO, but there was so much more risk then.

All of the drop from the low $300's seems to be driven by shorts, FUD and fear. The only legitimate risk seems to be that Tesla might need to raise more capital this next quarter. However some of the smartest posters here have done analyses and don't think they will. I also trust the exec team at Tesla to handle cash over the next 2 quarters in the most intelligent way possible.

Conversely, it looks like more and more evidence is occurring that the ramp is hitting its stride. If we were still in the 300's, this would be cause, over the next week as this is confirmed, to make a huge move upwards. At $265.00, this move should really be magnified.

I was over 100% invested at around $320 / share, but not enough to have to sell when it dropped to $250. I did sell, but after it stabilized I bought back and actually lowered my overall cost basis by 40c I'm almost debating options, but due to my unfamiliarity and because I'm already so aggressive, I will not.

Isn't this really an historic opportunity?

For those who have additional cash, this is a great buying opportunity. I bought small amount yesterday. Will happily add more if it goes lower.

For those who frequently buy high sell low, keep in mind stocks are volatile, don't buy with borrowed money. It will impair your judgement during pullbacks. Don't sell low. If you have margin, you might be forced to sell, that's unfortunate but it's preventable.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

So then why are you on here spouting negativity? I gave you the most up-to-date fact from them (and actually I think it was Depak who also chimed in saying this about their buffer timeline, not just Elon) and you are on here posting on assumptions.....

"Spouting negativity"?
What is the problem with that? Lots of unfounded positive assumptions around here. There was nothing in OP post to require this answer.
I want to read both sides, and I don't want cautious opinions to be quashed. if negative opinions bothers you, block offenders.

Yes, if you didn't catch it, I'm offended with how intolerant you are.

 

[bdy0627]

History does not predict the future, but it does have a way of repeating. We just had a dip of 28.5% over 13 trading days with a bottom hopefully set at $248. This dip was not unlike others TSLA has experienced in terms of the percentage drop or duration. How has TSLA acted in the past after larger dips like this? We've had 12 dips of at least 14% over the last 3 years. The dips ranged from 14.4% to 42.0% with an average of 22.2%. This last dip felt pretty dramatic to me, but as it turns out, it's only moderately worse than the average of those 12 larger dips. Given how this one felt, the 42% dip in 2016 must have felt absolutely excruciating, especially for those holding calls.

So, what happened to TSLA after these larger dips? Climbs ranging from 9.5% to 69.5% with an average of 22.7%. 67% of the time, the next climb did not reach the level of the prior peak. However, 92% of them reached 90% of the prior peak. The 1 that didn't still reached 85% of the prior peak, and that peak was 5% below the ATH at the time.

The longest it took TSLA to climb back to 90% of the prior peak (or 85% for the 1 that didn't get to 90%) was 24 trading days. The average was 10 trading days. Only 2 out of the 12 took longer than 14 trading days.

So, who knows what it will do this time, but at least based upon how it has acted in the past, I don't personally expect a lengthy consolidation period here. The dip wasn't particularly unusual, assuming it is over. We won't know for sure until next week. Will the next climb be similar to ones in the past? Who knows, but I wouldn't bet against it.

 

[Curt Renz]

Ok, every major media outlet that I track has now unloaded both barrels on Tesla. Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance, Wall Street Journal, NY Times, Washington Post, news aggregators posting negative headlines at the top, multiple smaller doom porn sites that relentlessly attack Tesla anyway but have had a renewed fervor the last few days etc etc. All the same stuff - death and explosions, cash burn and bankruptcy, devastating recall (really?) and of course, who the hell does this smug prick Musk think he is anyway?

Sad part is that even the ‘reputable’ rags post the same slanted and poorly researched crap. Tesla and Musk have a lot of enemies and will just never go away.

They don’t have much left unless something new and unfortunate comes up. It is up to TSLA to execute. They should be on the verge of the critical production numbers they need to make this all go away quickly.

I would venture to guess that a dip on Monday is probable and should probably be bought aggressively. Invest at your own risk please. And yeah, with money that you can afford to lose 100%. That’s right, all of it.

A lot of news is covered by Rupert Murdoch, who owns 20th century fox, the Times, The Wall Street Journal, etc. he's also an oil man and has ownership stakes in Genie Oil and Gas Inc., he’s also the chairman of Newscorp. Eventually his entities will be taken down my Musk Enterprise.

Undoubtedly those with anti-Tesla interests encourage the media and provide tips in this regard. Some reporters are in the same twitter clique with short sellers. Advertising is the lifeblood of the media. Tesla does not advertise. The other automakers and the oil industry advertise heavily. Yet stories about innovative Tesla and its visionary CEO are sure to draw many clicks (eyeballs that buy advertised products).

The oil tycoon Koch brothers pay the media to publish negative articles about alternative energy, particularly electric cars and Tesla. And much of the media is controlled by their friend Murdoch. All of this leads to the perfect setup for a continuous barrage of negatively slanted Tesla articles. This will be overcome by results that eventually defy the skeptics. Then when production finally catches up with demand, Tesla may become a big advertiser. That should quiet the naysayers in the media.

 

[hacer]

Covered calls is what I meant. Although some here have the balls to sell naked puts

Selling naked puts is no more risky than owning the stock, so long as you have the cash to cover it. The main drawback is that it's always multiples of 100 shares. I recently sold one April 20 with a $250 strike, so that requires $25k (less premium received) to cover it, so not a small investment. It's not that different than having a GTC order to buy 100 shares at $250 from a risk point of view.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

9 VINs reported by 12PM Eastern
Today may turn out to be monster production day.
There could be a happy narrative Tesla can put up about end of March production after all

 

[DurandalAI]

Ok, every major media outlet that I track has now unloaded both barrels on Tesla. Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance, Wall Street Journal, NY Times, Washington Post, news aggregators posting negative headlines at the top, multiple smaller doom porn sites that relentlessly attack Tesla anyway but have had a renewed fervor the last few days etc etc. All the same stuff - death and explosions, cash burn and bankruptcy, devastating recall (really?) and of course, who the hell does this smug prick Musk think he is anyway?

Sad part is that even the ‘reputable’ rags post the same slanted and poorly researched crap. Tesla and Musk have a lot of enemies and will just never go away.

They don’t have much left unless something new and unfortunate comes up. It is up to TSLA to execute. They should be on the verge of the critical production numbers they need to make this all go away quickly.

I would venture to guess that a dip on Monday is probable and should probably be bought aggressively. Invest at your own risk please. And yeah, with money that you can afford to lose 100%. That’s right, all of it.

And these news rags wonder why they’ve lost credibility with their potential audience.... We know who their masters are, and are not.