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  1. R

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Well Tesla can take funding from Saudis for expansion and dilute shares which will give Saudis stake in Tesla and funding Tesla Win-win. Now as far as Spacex is concerned it's rumour on the street. I hope it is wrong. But given situation that looks to be more likely option now. May be Larry...
  2. R

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    The whole taking Tesla private is turning out to be huge disaster. The more I think about it more I am getting convinced taking Tesla private doesn't serve long term mission. Why would Elon waste 25-30 billion taking Tesla private instead he can take that money from Saudis and invest in 5-6...
  3. R

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    I think in last few months stock is down largely by Musk's erratic behaviour. First pushing Analysts off the call, second lashing out at media pravadhu, third pedophile guy, Last funding secured and private Tesla. Minus this I have no doubt stock would have been trading above 360 with less...
  4. R

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    It has to be Google. With Larry page being Musk's friend.
  5. R

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Accredited investor will it apply to international investors as well? I am from India. Looks like will get kicked out at 420.was hoping stock will give me 20x in 10 years.
  6. R

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    I think Tesla doesn't need to go private right now. Because Tesla will be profitable going forward and noise that shorts are making like bankruptcy,demand problem, profitability, cash burn etc. all of this will disappear in next 6-9 months. At least half of shorts will cover. Only argument left...
  7. R

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Although I agree most of the above. I don't think demand for 3 will be problem. Because some prefer smaller cars or sedan look. Also model Y base version will be priced at 42k and will be available only in 2021. By that time frame with improved efficiency 3 base version will drop to 30k in my...
  8. R

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Multiple lines. S/X can share lot of production processes since they are on same platform and so will be case for 3/Y. Semi could be seperate assembly line. Semi can again share lot from 3/Y since it uses same platform. I think Paint shop and Stamping can be shared across different models. Not...
  9. R

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Here is how it works in my opinion. Roadster with 2000 vehicles year will be produced in Fremont. Largely manual and leveraging whaterever it can from existing infrastructure of S/X/3 for stamping, welding,paint and assembly. Roadster drivetrain in GF1 should not big deal. Semi in my opinion in...
  10. R

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    As expected by me next 7 days there will be lot of FUD. Bears have last chance.After Earnings release with 15K plus production and deliveries in July stock will take off. Bears know that production problems are behind us now.They have limited time after ER Tesla will be unstoppable.
  11. R

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Another FUD Here's why Tesla's Model 3 may face declining demand, despite Elon Musk's claims Next 6-7 days will be interesting. Bears are desperate to drive down price. They did this just before Q1 end with series of negative articles. This is there last chance before stock takes off. Because...
  12. R

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Bears have only two weeks left to spread FUD before 5k sustainablity and new found demand problem gets Debunked. I guess bears have last chance to push stock down and they know it well and FUD will only get louder in next two weeks with lots of downgrades reiterated by same short side analysts...
  13. R

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    My guess is after ER stock goes up based on following assumptions GAAP Loss of 550 million indicating loss is getting smaller as model 3 ramps hence Q3 profitability 15K plus model 3 deliveries in July making it in top 15 or 20 car in US (12K model 3 produced but not delivered in Q2) 15K plus...
  14. R

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    If model 3 as indicated by Elon achieves 25 percentage gross margin by q2 2019 then if you run the numbers Tesla will generate 1.5 billion GAAP profit in q2 2019 with cash flow from operations over 2.5 billion and over 10 billion in 2019. Enough to fund Gigafactory 3.
  15. R

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Tesla will report any expense incurred due to workforce restructuring as a exceptional item. So minus that number is what analysts will look at. My calculation suggests q2 GAAP loss around 500-550 millions.
  16. R

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    couple more tweets from Elon highlighting FUD.
  17. R

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Tesla pre market is positive.
  18. R

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Does not matter, important to close above psychological level.
  19. R

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    9 minutes to go for closing.
  20. R

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    If 310 breaks will go below 300
  21. R

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    310 is important support needs to hold.
  22. R

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Wall Street is not impressed by Tesla's Model 3 milestone; stock plunges 5% on negative notes
  23. R

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Goldman Sachs is not impressed with Tesla's production announcement and reiterates its sell rating for the company's shares, noting net Model 3 reservations declined to 420,000 from 455,000 last year. .... This is crazy
  24. R

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Looks like 310 will hold today.
  25. R

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Volume is huge which is surprising.
  26. R

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Tech stocks have turned negative so market is not helping either.
  27. R

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    I will buy some if it dips to 300.
  28. R

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Shares will stabilize in day or two. Shorts are determined to avoid short burn and turn narrative.
  29. R

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Incrementally there will be positive news going forward in next couple of months. First, remember there are 12K model 3s produced but not delivered.So in July we should see at least 15K model 3 delivered. And if number is between 18-20K that is more than all deliveries of Q2 in single...
  30. R

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    My production estimate was earlier 30K but now I feel it could be closer to 33K. If Tesla has produced 35K in Q2 that will be huge win with almost average of 3K per week and thrash out bear argument of sustainability.
  31. R

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Wow 5K is great. Bears argument now for next 3 months moves to can they sustain and be profitable in Q3. In October profit is one off and can they sustain profit. In January 2019 Ok they are profitable but what about valuation? In August 2019 when that is answered but competition is coming in...
  32. R

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Autopilot update and FSD will be big news in August.
  33. R

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    6K looks unlikely. May be total production of 35k is possible.
  34. R

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    5k exit rate with more than 30k production will trigger 10% run in the stock. And then news of China GF followed by release of autopilot update will trigger additional 10% run enough to scare bears cause short burn.
  35. R

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Good article Elon Musk Races to Exit Tesla’s ‘Production Hell’
  36. R

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Stock is gonna be volatile in next few days. Bears are going to create lot of FUD in next few days as this is their only chance before short burn begins...
  37. R

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Giga factory producing at 5k per week, Article on Electrek. My guess is GA3 and GA4 are also good for 5k. End of line and body shop should be also ok. I think only problem we need confirmation is paint shop.
  38. R

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Norway deliveries for S and X are looking good.
  39. R

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Any update on production?
  40. R

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Some predictions for Q2. Model 3 production of 30K and deliveries 20K. Model 3 production rate at the end of june to be more than 4.5K per week. So if we look at the bigger picture production tripled and production rate more than doubled compared to Q1. Tesla hits 5K per week by end of june or...
  41. R

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    I I don't think Tesla will have only couple of quarters of profits and then profit goes down. If you run the numbers Tesla will generate 10 billion dollars of cash flow from operations next year. Enough to fund model 3 , model y. Roadster investment will be fairly low to about production of...
  42. R

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    They will deliver about 190K M3s by year end. US/Canada reservations could be 250K of 450k. So probably 150K demand for LR/AWD/P version. Since SR will be available in Q1 2019 only and international deliveries start next year. So if somebody books LR in US now could get car between 4-6 months...
  43. R

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Baught some shares in the morning. May be its 300 resistance level was not breached so technicals kicked in or bears are defending 300.
  44. R

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Hold back largely will be due to delivery processing time.So almost all the cars manufactured in last 3 weeks of June will not be delivered. They will do some hold back to not exceed 200k. They have already guided S/X will also be in range of 22K for quarter which is again to manage 200K mark...
  45. R

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Production between 30-35K . Deliveries 20-22K.
  46. R

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Tesla never promised they will be profitable. Profitability timeline set by Elon musk was sometime in 2020 when they reach economies of scale with M3 and GIGA. Go back in time and see musk interview videos of 2014-2015. His original target for 500K cars per year was also 2020 but Tesla changed...
  47. R

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Model 3 new reservations would not be much in this makes sense because many people wont be putting down for 12-18 months delay. But given that recently in US wait has been reduced to 4-6 months for new reservation holders M3 reservations should pick up. Also by the end of the year as they will...
  48. R

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Tesla has 650 million dollar of account receivables and 2.6 billion of inventory Operating lease vehicles 2.3 billion and Solar energy systems, leased and to be leased 6.3 billion 10.6 billion of debt with revenue of 12 billion in 2017 and expected revenue of 22-25 billion for 2018 and 40 to 45...
  49. R

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Tesla Bears argument will change from Tesla can not produce model 3s (March 2018) to Ok they can produce M3s but they can not make profit (July 2018) to Ok they can make profit but why value Tesla more than GM,FORD (December 2018) and when finally Tesla will post GAAP profit of 1.5 billion (6...