TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Zaxxon]

I'm convinced that the Model 3 is attacking the whole midsize market, not only midsize sedans or premium midsize sedans... Because of lack of options. That's why I think it will take just as much market share from an Accord than from the BMW 3 series.

Absolutely, eventually. But the initial [significant] impact is to the premium segment, IMO. Once the full slate of configurations are available the 3 will eat a lot of lunches at Toyota, Honda, Hyundai, et al dealers. My responses to VA relate to the timeline of October specifically. In the time between now and 10/31, I just don't see the Model 3 catching the Camry.

That does not imply that I disagree that there's a ''kick me" sign on the backs of the Camry/Accord/Sonata.

 

[Mader Levap]

Given that Tesla is cash constrained and not raising capital, Wall Street analysts are going to focus on deliveries, sales, and quarterly performance. They're not going to use arbitrary metrics like "5000/week."

Yeeeeah, once Tesla achieves some result, this result suddenly stops being important. Why I am supposed to treat something like that seriously?

 

[Hogfighter]

Elon taking on the FUD on Twitter. Let the fun begin!

 

[rameshbende]

Tesla pre market is positive.

 

[MartinAustin]

Elon taking on the FUD on Twitter. Let the fun begin!

Yes... surreal. Hopefully this becomes a real development-

Elon Musk on Twitter

 

[SteveG3]

Yes... surreal. Hopefully this becomes a real development-

Elon Musk on Twitter

one Elon tweet in response to a tweet suggesting a possible link between Chanos and Linette Lopez Business Insider stories re Tesla:

“Sounds very sketchy if true. @lopezlinette, is it possible you’re serving as an inside trading source for one of Tesla’s biggest short-sellers? An ex-Tesla employee just went on record formally claiming you bribed him & he sent you valuable Tesla IP in exchange. Is this true?”

maybe, just maybe, showing what some shorts/media have been doing actually is what “explode short position” tweet was hinting at.

 

[Reciprocity]

[QUOTE="Reciprocity, post: 2852498, member: 58331. Start small, then go big when you can make millions of cars and/or trucks.

When & where will Tesla start producing Semis for sale? Will the sale package include unlimited mega-charging at $0.07/kw-hr? When do they start construction of the mega-chargers?[/QUOTE]

I think they will build the first Megachargers at customers distribution hubs. If Pepsi buys 50 semis, they can put solar and powerpacks on location. Could be a mix of supperchargers and Megachargers. Because the network will take time, they can satisfy early demand while they build out major corridors first. I expect a mix of supper and mega chargers there as well. Some places drivers will stay overnight.

 

[YasB]

“Sounds very sketchy if true. @lopezlinette, is it possible you’re serving as an inside trading source for one of Tesla’s biggest short-sellers? An ex-Tesla employee just went on record formally claiming you bribed him & he sent you valuable Tesla IP in exchange. Is this true?

Wow. So Elon confirmed she had a real insider source and access to internal documents and hasn't been making up all those things?

Edit: Does anybody know, which article he is talking about and happens to have a link?

@lopezlinette has published several false articles about Tesla, including a doozy where she claimed Tesla scrapped more batteries than our total S,X &3 production number, which is physically impossible.

 

[SteveG3]

once again, many many of those shorting Tesla do not actually believe foolish things, they simply are working very very hard to try to persuade the rest of us to believe foolish things.

 

[wnorris]

Wow. So Elon confirmed she had a real insider source and access to internal documents and hasn't been making up all those things?

Tesla has previously noted that Martin Tripp made and admitted to making false claims.

Gov Uscourts Nvd 131251 1 0 2

 

[rameshbende]

couple more tweets from Elon highlighting FUD.

 

[SteveG3]

and now Elon has retweeted this Clean Technica article about Jesse’s thread here on TMC

(outstanding thread summarizes assertions of Chanos’ past goonish activity to try to fabricate a crisis in confidence downward spiral based on falsehoods with an insurance company he shorted in Matt Taibbi’s The Divide, and thread also makes a strong case that Chanos is playing the same game with Tesla)

A Sinister Cellar Of The TSLA Short Story? | CleanTechnica

 

[YasB]

Tesla has previously noted that Martin Tripp made and admitted to making false claims.

Gov Uscourts Nvd 131251 1 0 2

Am i missing the part where it says, that Tripp admitted to making false claims? It says he admitted to manipulating computers and carrying data out. It looks like it's Tesla saying he has made false claims, not Tripp.

 

[bhtooefr]

Following up on this.

Toyota just reported another YoY drop for Camry, and a large drop for Corolla, in June. This is happening *before* $TSLA Model 3 ramps to beyond 5,000 weekly rate, *before* gasoline prices rise further this summer, and *before* $35,000 version is released in a just few months.

Fine, but the sedan is the least desirable variant right now. CUVs and SUVs are much more desireable (as your link to Toyota highlights). Tesla is still in a good spot because they have no competition in the sporty, EV segment. Had they launched Model Y first, their demand would be astronomical (and possibly preclude the need for 3).

I think that's basically it. Model 3 isn't what's hitting the Camry (yet!), RAV4 is what's hitting the Camry.

Camry buyers tend to be very conservative (I don't mean this in the US political way) in their automotive preferences, and the Model 3 is a radical car (read: opposite of conservative). Furthermore, putting $1,000 down sight-unseen, and another $48,000 without being able to drive the car, is even more radical.

Also worth noting that the new Camry went for lower and sportier than the previous generation, and the dip in sales starts appearing as the new Camry came out. I think Toyota's logic here is that traditional Camry buyers were already starting to move to the RAV4 (so trying to get a sport sedan buyer was worth the gamble), as well as the Camry replacing the Avensis in Europe (and therefore needing to be lower and sportier to be more compatible with European driving). But, they may have started scaring off their traditional buyer as a result of those changes (again, I don't think they see this as a loss, because their traditional buyer was already considering a RAV4).

 

[wnorris]

Am i missing the part where it says, that Tripp admitted to making false claims? It says he admitted to manipulating computers and carrying data out. It looks like it's Tesla saying he has made false claims, not Tripp.

Yes you are and rather disingenuous about it. #14 highlights that Tripp initially told investigators one story. When confronted with evidence Tripp admitted to falsifying his initial story and only then told the truth. What is confusing you about this?

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I think that's basically it. Model 3 isn't what's hitting the Camry (yet!), RAV4 is what's hitting the Camry.

Camry buyers tend to be very conservative (I don't mean this in the US political way) in their automotive preferences, and the Model 3 is a radical car (read: opposite of conservative). Furthermore, putting $1,000 down sight-unseen, and another $48,000 without being able to drive the car, is even more radical.

Also worth noting that the new Camry went for lower and sportier than the previous generation, and the dip in sales starts appearing as the new Camry came out. I think Toyota's logic here is that traditional Camry buyers were already starting to move to the RAV4 (so trying to get a sport sedan buyer was worth the gamble), as well as the Camry replacing the Avensis in Europe (and therefore needing to be lower and sportier to be more compatible with European driving). But, they may have started scaring off their traditional buyer as a result of those changes (again, I don't think they see this as a loss, because their traditional buyer was already considering a RAV4).

RAV4 blended fuel economy: 25 mpg
Camry blended fuel economy: 34 mpg
Saving money at the pump when gas prices surge: priceless

When gas prices drop, consumer demand shifts to SUV/Trucks, as has been the case in every cycle. When gas prices rise back up, consumer demand shifts back to cars, as has been the case in every cycle. This is true across automakers, brands, models, makes, etc. and in every cycle.

This time, however, Model 3, with its blended fuel economy of 125+ mpge, will be what consumers demand when gas prices surge above $4 per gallon in 3 months maybe, 6 months definitely. I expect Model 3 monthly sales to exceed that of Camry at around 27,500 in a few months.

 

[bhtooefr]

I think Model 3 doesn't actually benefit at all from $4/gal average gas, simply because the kind of buyer who panic-buys an efficient car in response to high gas prices won't want to wait for a Model 3, and Tesla is selling every car they make. Tesla could raise prices in response to high gas prices, but...

Model S and X may well benefit, though.

Also note that there's a new RAV4 coming with presumably better fuel efficiency due to new powertrains, that could get some purchases from panic-buyers that want better fuel efficiency. I feel like the impact of this wave of high gas prices hasn't really been seen on buying habits yet, though.

(Also, I feel like 3 months for $4/gal gas is possible, but if we don't see $4 in 3 months, we likely won't see it in 6 months, simply because that's when gas prices dip due to lower gasoline demand and distillates (diesel/home heating oil, kerosene/jet fuel) driving oil demand.)

 

[defc0n]

Instead of tweeting reasons to cause short positions to explode, Elon is now re-tweeting articles simply complaining about short sellers. I think it's safe to say the 3-week short warning has passed, was actually supposed to be the 5000/wk Model 3 news, and the short position explosion is not going to happen. Shame on me.

 

[YasB]

Yes you are and rather disingenuous about it. #14 highlights that Tripp initially told investigators one story. When confronted with evidence Tripp admitted to falsifying his initial story and only then told the truth. What is confusing you about this?

I was confused, since I interpreted the earlier statement ...

Tesla has previously noted that Martin Tripp made and admitted to making false claims

... as "Tripp admitted to having made false claims when he talked to the media people". So for me it sounded, as if he had retracted the allegations he has made in regard to Tesla and i was looking for such a passage in the document. So yes, you are right, since he obviously has admitted to making false claims and it clearly says this. My apologies.

 

[22522]

I think that's basically it. Model 3 isn't what's hitting the Camry (yet!), RAV4 is what's hitting the Camry.

Camry buyers tend to be very conservative (I don't mean this in the US political way) in their automotive preferences, and the Model 3 is a radical car (read: opposite of conservative). Furthermore, putting $1,000 down sight-unseen, and another $48,000 without being able to drive the car, is even more radical.

Also worth noting that the new Camry went for lower and sportier than the previous generation, and the dip in sales starts appearing as the new Camry came out. I think Toyota's logic here is that traditional Camry buyers were already starting to move to the RAV4 (so trying to get a sport sedan buyer was worth the gamble), as well as the Camry replacing the Avensis in Europe (and therefore needing to be lower and sportier to be more compatible with European driving). But, they may have started scaring off their traditional buyer as a result of those changes (again, I don't think they see this as a loss, because their traditional buyer was already considering a RAV4).

Toyota has to make a demographic jump to a younger generation.

For lack of a better word, companies "bobble" when doing things like this. When folks in front of you in a mountain bike race bobble, you pass them while they are distracted and off balance. If Tesla can avoid tariffs by building a factory in two weeks, anywhere, they will pass a lot of people.