I'm convinced that the Model 3 is attacking the whole midsize market, not only midsize sedans or premium midsize sedans... Because of lack of options. That's why I think it will take just as much market share from an Accord than from the BMW 3 series.
Absolutely, eventually. But the initial [significant] impact is to the premium segment, IMO. Once the full slate of configurations are available the 3 will eat a lot of lunches at Toyota, Honda, Hyundai, et al dealers. My responses to VA relate to the timeline of October specifically. In the time between now and 10/31, I just don't see the Model 3 catching the Camry.
That does not imply that I disagree that there's a ''kick me" sign on the backs of the Camry/Accord/Sonata.